民航安全形势分析模型研究及应用

发布时间：2018-05-19 23:04

本文选题：民航安全形势分析模型 + 民航安全水平提升　；参考：《中国民航大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：“十二五”以来,我国航班客座率和载运率居于高位,民航发展质量稳步提升,民航保障能力不断增强,民航安全水平世界领先。民航安全作为行业内最核心的问题备受关注,其不仅关系到航空旅客的生命财产安危,于企业、政府、国家的经济发展及声誉、影响也十分重要。本文运用系统动力学的理论及方法,将民航安全形势作为一个复杂的系统,对民航安全水平提升的问题开展研究,拓宽了系统动力学应用的范围,并为民航安全形势分析提供了一种新的思路和方向。本文对国际与国内民航的安全数据进行统计,从而得到我国民航安全的现状。从系统科学的角度出发对民航安全形势系统影响因素分析,将其分成宏观环境因素、外部因素与内部因素,并结合民航行业的特征和飞行事故的特点,建立民航安全形势指数量化我国的民航安全形势。根据民航安全形势系统的宏观环境、内外部影响因素分析和民航安全形势指数的建立,针对民航安全水平提升的问题,建立民航安全形势系统流位流率系仿真模型即民航安全形势分析模型(CASSM)。采用多种仿真方程结合的方式建立入树参数,并在仿真建树过程中根据系统动态变化及系统发展与水平提升过程中的制约、促进问题,设立了不同的调控参数。通过对流率基本入树的独立仿真模拟和组合仿真模拟验证建立组合入树模型即,其等价于流位流率系流图模型,解决了建立整个流图变量方程后进行仿真存在的困难。通过删除民航安全形势系统流位流率系各树枝中非重复出现的辅助变量,将系统流率基本入树变换为与其等价的强简化流率基本入树,通过SD枝向量行列式算法进行反馈环计算,对与民航安全形势指数相关的部分反馈环进行极性、关键因果链分析及分类,生成3大类共16条关键因果链,并提出民航安全水平提升的三条对策。最后通过三条对策措施相关参数的调整对对策措施的可行性进行验证,为提升我国民航安全水平策略的制定与实施提供参考,实现模型研究创新和应用创新。
[Abstract]:Since 12th Five-Year, the passenger seat rate and the carrier rate are in high position in China, the quality of civil aviation is steadily improving, the civil aviation security is increasing and the safety level of civil aviation is in the lead. As the most important issue in the industry, civil aviation safety is concerned about the safety of the life and property of the airline passengers, the enterprises, the government and the state. The economic development and reputation are also very important. This paper, using the theory and method of system dynamics, takes the civil aviation security situation as a complex system, studies the problem of improving the safety level of civil aviation, broadens the scope of the application of the system dynamics, and provides a new way of thinking and direction for the analysis of the whole situation of civil aviation security. This paper makes statistics on the safety data of international and domestic civil aviation, thus obtaining the status of civil aviation security in China. From the perspective of systematic science, the analysis of the factors affecting the civil aviation security situation system is divided into macro environmental factors, external factors and internal factors, and the characteristics of Civil Aviation industry and flight accidents, and the establishment of civil aviation. The safety situation index quantifies the situation of civil aviation security in China. According to the macro environment of the civil aviation safety situation system, the analysis of the internal and external factors and the establishment of the civil aviation safety situation index, the simulation model of the flow rate system of civil aviation safety situation system is established, that is, the civil aviation security situation analysis model (CASSM). A variety of simulation equations are combined to establish the tree parameters, and in the process of simulation and construction, different control parameters are set up according to the dynamic changes of the system and the constraints in the process of system development and level promotion. It is equivalent to the flow graph model of stream position flow rate system, which solves the difficulty of simulation after establishing the whole flow graph variable equation. By deleting the non repeated auxiliary variables in the branches of the traffic flow rate system of the civil aviation security situation system, the system flow rate is basically transformed into a tree which is equivalent to the strong simplified flow rate, through the SD The branch vector determinant algorithm carries out the feedback loop calculation, makes the polarity to the part of the feedback loop related to the civil aviation security situation index, the key causal chain analysis and the classification, generates 3 major categories and 16 key causality chains, and puts forward three countermeasures for the improvement of the civil aviation safety level. Finally, the countermeasures are adjusted through the adjustment of the related parameters of the three countermeasures and measures. Feasibility study is carried out to provide references for the formulation and implementation of China's civil aviation safety level strategy, and to achieve model research innovation and application innovation.
【学位授予单位】：中国民航大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：V328

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