TISA成员及中国服务业出口贸易发展的实证分析
发布时间:2018-06-05 08:42
本文选题:生产性服务业 + 消费性服务业 ; 参考:《集美大学》2017年硕士论文
【摘要】:随着世界产业转移与产业升级的推进,服务行业已成为国际贸易与国际投资中的重要组成部分。由于现代服务业的兴起,使得服务贸易结构逐渐由传统的消费性服务业向新型的生产性服务业转变。对服务出口贸易进行三元边际分解,能够深入了解一国的服务贸易结构。本文基于TISA成员及中国研究服务贸易出口市场的基本格局、服务出口三元边际结构特征及其影响因素,对于把握服务贸易发展的新动态与我国的政策制定具有重要的实际意义。首先,本文梳理了国际服务贸易的相关文献,借鉴殷凤与陈宪(2009)的方法,采用贸易规模及其增长率指标、出口市场占有率指标与TC指数研究TISA成员及中国的国际服务贸易市场的基本格局,结论表明:从全世界的服务业来看,高收入国家在生产与消费性服务出口具有绝对优势,并且它们的生产性服务业具有比较优势,而低收入国家的消费性服务业具有比较优势。其次,采用Hummels and Klenow(2002)与孔庆峰(2015)的边际分解方法,对TISA成员及中国出口贸易进行三元边际分解,发现高收入国家生产性服务出口主要依靠技术集约边际或种类扩展边际的增长,而消费性服务出口主要依靠数量集约边际的增长,种类扩展边际起到一定的作用;低收入国家生产性服务出口主要依靠技术集约边际的增长,而消费性服务出口主要依靠数量集约边际的增长,技术集约边际也起到一定的作用,但出口技术水平远低于高收入国家。再次,本文从理论与实证角度分析国际服务贸易出口三元边际的影响因素。选择服务贸易三元边际作为被解释变量,全要素生产率(p)、贸易成本(c)、人力资本(l)、技术差异(g)、固定资本存量(k)和商品贸易量(e)等因素作为解释变量,利用TISA成员及中国1995~2007年的面板数据分别建立高收入国家与低收入国家两组计量模型,研究三元边际的影响因素以及相互之间的差异,结论详见表6-1。最后,本文针对我国服务业发展给出以下几点政策建议:(1)充分发挥我国人力资本要素禀赋优势;(2)在产业结构方面,我国应该在经济发展方式上更加注重服务业,尤其是生产性服务业的发展;(3)在服务贸易开放度与贸易成本方面,我国服务贸易政策与制度应该注重降低进入或退出服务贸易市场的沉没成本,继续扩大我国服务业的对外开放度;(4)促进商品贸易与服务贸易的协同发展。
[Abstract]:With the development of industrial transfer and upgrading, service industry has become an important part of international trade and investment. Due to the rise of modern service industry, the structure of service trade has gradually changed from the traditional consumer service to the new producer service. It is possible to understand a country's service trade structure by three-dimensional marginal decomposition of service export trade. Based on the research of TISA members and China on the basic pattern of export market of service trade, the characteristics of ternary marginal structure of service export and its influencing factors, this paper has important practical significance for grasping the new development of service trade and the policy making of our country. First of all, this paper combs the related documents of international trade in services, draws lessons from the methods of Yin Feng and Chen Xianwei 2009, and adopts the scale of trade and its growth rate index. Export Market share Index and TC Index the basic pattern of TISA members and China's international service trade market is studied. The conclusion shows that the high-income countries have absolute advantages in the export of production and consumption services from the point of view of the world's service industry. And their producer services have a comparative advantage, while low-income countries have a comparative advantage of consumer services. Secondly, by using the marginal decomposition method of Hummels and Klenowi (2002) and Kong Qingfeng (2015), the author makes a ternary marginal decomposition of the export trade of TISA members and China. It is found that the productive service exports of high-income countries mainly depend on the growth of technology intensive margin or category expansion margin. While the export of consumer services mainly depends on the growth of the intensive margin of quantity, and the marginal expansion of the category plays a certain role, while the export of productive services of low-income countries mainly depends on the growth of the marginal margin of intensive technology. The export of consumer services mainly depends on the growth of the intensive marginal of quantity and the marginal margin of technology also plays a certain role, but the level of export technology is far lower than that of the high-income countries. Thirdly, this paper analyzes the influence factors of the ternary marginal value of international trade in services from the theoretical and empirical point of view. Three factors, total factor productivity (TFP), trade cost (TFP), human capital, technical difference, fixed capital stock (K) and volume of merchandise trade, are selected as explanatory variables. Using the panel data of TISA members and China from 1995 to 2007 to establish two groups of measurement models for high-income countries and low-income countries, the influence factors of ternary margin and the differences between them are studied. The conclusions are shown in Table 6-1. Finally, according to the development of China's service industry, this paper gives the following policy suggestions: 1) give full play to the advantages of human capital factor endowments in China) in terms of industrial structure, our country should pay more attention to the service industry in the way of economic development. Especially the development of producer services. In the aspect of service trade openness and trade cost, China's service trade policy and system should focus on reducing the sunk cost of entering or exiting the service trade market. We should continue to expand the opening up of our service industry to the outside world and promote the coordinated development of trade in goods and services.
【学位授予单位】:集美大学
【学位级别】:硕士
【学位授予年份】:2017
【分类号】:F752.62
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