中国货币政策空间效应非对称性研究

发布时间：2018-06-13 09:43

本文选题：货币政策 + 空间效应　；参考：《内蒙古财经大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：货币政策是国家进行宏观经济调控的核心手段,对政府宏观经济的调节发挥着重要作用,关于货币政策的效应研究长期以来都受到国内外众多学者的广泛关注。就目前研究现状来说,主要是基于宏观经济的视角,以各地区同质性为假设前提,通过不同的货币政策工具及传导途径来研究货币政策的有效性。但是,对货币政策区域因素即货币政策空间效应的研究仍有较大空白。自中国改革开放推行市场经济以来,一直在全国范围内实施高度集中统一的货币政策。随着经济总量的快速增长及经济结构的不断调整,各地区经济水平、产业结构、金融体系建设等方面的差异逐步显现,而这些差距及差异又直接关系到货币政策效果的发挥,货币政策的空间效应凸显,造成了货币政策的实施力度和目标控制难以精准把握。因此,研究掌握货币政策的空间效应对于货币政策的制定、实施、评价、调整等具有重要的现实意义。不仅有利于从空间层面探寻货币政策效果减损的深层原因;而且有助于政策制定者综合考量多种政策工具,促进地区健康发展。首先,本文运用最优货币区的相关判断标准,对中国货币政策是否存在空间效应进行初步检验,从理论上得出中国存在货币政策效应的空间差异。其次,运用统计分析和实证分析对货币政策的空间效应展开论证,综合考察了时滞的地区差异及政策效果的地区差异两方面内容。研究结果表明:从时滞差异角度,各地区对货币政策的反应时滞存在地域差异,东部时滞最短,政策效果最好,中、西部居中,东北部时滞最长;从地区差异角度,构造31个省份的变系数固定效应面板数据模型展开分析,全国高度统一的货币政策传导至各个省份后,会对各省份经济运行带来方向各异、程度各异的影响,货币政策在空间层面具有显著差异性,货币政策对于东部地区能够起到更好的政策效果,但对东北地区产生负向影响,对中部地区的山西和河南产生最为严重的负向作用。在此基础上,本文从经济金融环境、货币供应量、政策渠道及微观主体行为四个角度分析了引起货币政策地区差异的原因。最后,结合货币政策带来的社会成本——区域经济差距的扩大,提出了在制定政策时应适时搭配具有针对性的产业政策、金融政策等宏观调控手段,不断完善金融落后地区的金融体系,展开区域差别化的货币政策工具探索等政策建议,逐步缩小货币政策空间效应带来的问题。
[Abstract]:Monetary policy is the core means of national macroeconomic regulation and control, and plays an important role in the regulation of government macro-economy. The study on the effect of monetary policy has long been widely concerned by many scholars at home and abroad. As far as the present research situation is concerned, it mainly studies the effectiveness of monetary policy through different monetary policy tools and transmission channels, based on the macro-economic perspective and taking the homogeneity of different regions as the premise. However, there is still a large gap in the study of the regional factors of monetary policy, I. E. the spatial effect of monetary policy. Since the reform and opening to the outside world, China has implemented a highly centralized and unified monetary policy throughout the country. With the rapid growth of economic aggregate and the constant adjustment of economic structure, the differences in economic level, industrial structure, financial system construction and so on gradually appear in various regions, and these differences and differences are directly related to the effectiveness of monetary policy. The spatial effect of monetary policy is prominent, which makes it difficult to accurately grasp the enforcement and target control of monetary policy. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study and master the spatial effect of monetary policy for the formulation, implementation, evaluation and adjustment of monetary policy. It is not only helpful to probe into the deep reasons of the effect of monetary policy impairment from the spatial level, but also helpful for the policy makers to consider various policy tools comprehensively and promote the healthy development of the region. First of all, this paper makes a preliminary test on the spatial effect of China's monetary policy by using the relevant criteria of the optimal currency area, and draws a conclusion that there is a spatial difference in the monetary policy effect in China. Secondly, the spatial effect of monetary policy is demonstrated by statistical analysis and empirical analysis. The results show that: from the point of time delay difference, there are regional differences in regional response time delay to monetary policy, the eastern region has the shortest delay, the policy effect is the best, the middle, the west is the center, and the northeast is the longest. The data model of variable coefficient fixed effect panel of 31 provinces is constructed and analyzed. After the highly unified monetary policy is transmitted to each province, it will bring different directions and different degrees of influence to the economic operation of each province. Monetary policy has significant difference in spatial level, monetary policy can play a better policy effect on the eastern region, but it has a negative impact on the Northeast region, and the most serious negative effect on Shanxi and Henan in the central region. On this basis, this paper analyzes the causes of regional differences in monetary policy from the four angles of economic and financial environment, money supply, policy channels and microcosmic behavior. Finally, combined with the social cost brought by monetary policy-the widening of regional economic gap, it is proposed that the policy should be accompanied by targeted industrial policies, financial policies, and other macroeconomic control measures. We should constantly improve the financial system in the backward regions, explore regional differential monetary policy tools, and gradually reduce the problems caused by the spatial effects of monetary policies.
【学位授予单位】：内蒙古财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F822.0

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