基于VFM的CH城地下综合管廊建设模式选择研究

发布时间：2018-06-13 17:29

本文选题：VFM + 地下综合管廊　；参考：《吉林大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着我国经济发展,各项基础设施逐步完善,地下综合管廊也登上了国家基础设施建设的舞台。CH城是一座文明古城,各管线年代久远,腐蚀严重,地下综合管廊将各种市政管线归纳在同一条地下管沟中,不仅可以美化社会环境,解决“空中蜘蛛网”和“马路拉链”的问题,也可以降低各管线单位管道腐蚀更新成本,充分利用地下空间资源,对各管线统一管理,智能监控,降低了后期运营维护成本,增加了社会效益。近年来,国家积极推行PPP模式,住建部强烈推荐PPP模式,但是我国PPP实践证明,PPP模式并不是在任何情况下都是最优,每种建设模式也并非完全最优,因此,本文以集成化管理的思维对CH城地下综合管廊建设模式选择进行研究,希望对CH城地下综合管廊后期工程提供指导,为我国其他类似项目提供参考。本文从因素识别、建设模式介绍和建设模式评价选择方面展开研究。首先,对影响地下综合管廊建设模式选择的因素进行分析,从国家层面、地方政府层面和项目层面识别出12个因素,分别为法律和制度环境因素、宏观经济因素、政府管理因素、政府财政因素、政府技术因素、政府信用因素、项目质量因素、项目成本效益因素、项目进度因素、项目风险因素、项目规模因素、项目环境因素;然后,根据社会资本的参与程度,结合文献统计,将地下综合管廊备选建设模式分为传统建设模式和PPP建设模式,分别介绍了传统建设模式中的DBB模式、DB模式、CM模式、PM模式、PMC模式及DM模式和PPP建设模式中的BOT模式、BOO模式、BT模式、TOT模式及PFI模式;其后,根据“适用性排除法”原则,通过头脑风暴法,进行物有所值定性比较,结合CH城实际情况,对备选建设模式进行初步比较分析,最终,筛选出PMC模式和BOT模式;然后,根据分析过程提炼出15个评价指标,运用德尔菲法针对每种筛选出的建设模式指标权重赋值,借鉴模糊思想进行“扫盲”,运用结构熵权法对权重结果进行修正,再结合专家对指标符合程度进行打分,运用综合评分法,计算得出筛选出的建设模式定性评价得分;最后,运用公共部门比较值法对筛选出的建设模式进行VFM定量评价,假设产出相同,计算PMC模式下的公共部门比较值和BOT模式下全寿命周期成本现值,借助灰色关联性理想解法对VFM定性评价和定量评价结果进行标准统一,从而将二者的评价结果相结合,用灰色关联相对贴近度确定了BOT模式为更适合CH城地下综合管廊的建设模式,并对VFM定量评价过程中的估计参数进行了敏感性分析,结果表明该项目中,BOT模式下的全寿命周期成本现值比PMC模式下的公共部门比较值现值降低率对折现率和风险计提率更为敏感。本文的研究视角为政府委托投资单位,虽然CH城新城和旧城对地下综合管廊需求均比较大,但是由于旧城牵连众多,因此,CH城暂未对旧城地下综合管廊进行规划,因此,本文研究针对CH城规划范围内的新城179.7km地下综合管廊进行建设模式选择,而CH城地下综合管廊建设以整体规划,按地区、年度依次进行建设,且新城地下综合管廊段的土质、水质等基本相同,政府委托单位也相同,定量计算以HY大路段7.12km综合管廊情况进行说明,在一定程度上可以代表目前CH城地下综合管廊建设。
[Abstract]:With the development of China's economy and the gradual improvement of the infrastructure, the underground comprehensive corridor is also on the stage of the national infrastructure construction,.CH city is a civilized city. Each pipeline is long and corroded. The underground comprehensive pipe corridor induces various municipal pipelines in the same underground canal, which can not only beautify the social environment and solve the "empty". The problem of "Chinese spider web" and "road zipper" can also reduce the cost of corrosion and update of pipeline units, make full use of underground space resources, unified management of various pipelines and intelligent monitoring, reduce the cost of post operation and maintenance, and increase social benefits. In recent years, the PPP model is actively carried out by the Chinese family, and the Ministry of construction strongly recommends the PPP model. It is China's PPP practice that the PPP model is not the best in any case, and each construction mode is not completely optimal. Therefore, this paper studies the selection of the construction model of the underground comprehensive tube Gallery in CH city with the thought of integrated management, and hopes to provide guidance for the later project of the CH city underground comprehensive pipe corridor and provide the other similar projects in our country. For reference. This article from the factor identification, the construction model introduction and the construction model evaluation selection. First, the factors affecting the selection of the construction model of the underground comprehensive corridor are analyzed, and 12 factors are identified from the national level, the local government level and the project level, which are divided into legal and institutional environment factors, macroeconomic factors, and politics. Government management factors, government financial factors, government technical factors, government credit factors, project quality factors, project cost and benefit factors, project progress factors, project risk factors, project scale factors, project environmental factors, and then, according to the participation of social capital, combined with literature statistics, the alternative construction model of underground comprehensive corridor is divided into two types. The traditional construction mode and the PPP construction model respectively introduce the DBB mode, the DB mode, the CM mode, the PM mode, the PMC mode and the DM mode and the BOT mode in the PPP construction mode, the BOO mode, the BT mode, the TOT mode and the pattern. Then, the value qualitative analysis is carried out by the brainstorming method according to the principle of "applicability exclusion". Compared with the actual situation of CH City, a preliminary comparison and analysis of the alternative construction model was carried out, and finally, the PMC model and BOT model were selected. Then, according to the analysis process, 15 evaluation indexes were extracted and the weights assigned by Delphy Fa for each type of construction model index were used, and the fuzzy thought was used for "literacy", and the structure entropy weight method was used. The result of the weight is revised, and then combined with the experts to score the index of the index, the comprehensive scoring method is used to calculate the qualitative evaluation score of the selected construction model. Finally, the VFM quantitative evaluation is carried out by the public sector comparison value method for the selected construction model, the false output is the same, and the public sector comparison under the PMC model is calculated. The value of the total life cycle cost under the value of BOT model and the grey relational ideal solution are used to standardize the qualitative evaluation and quantitative evaluation results of VFM, thus combining the evaluation results of the two, and using the relative close degree of the gray correlation to determine the BOT model as a more suitable construction model for the underground comprehensive Gallery of CH City, and to evaluate the quantitative evaluation of VFM. The sensitivity analysis of the estimated parameters in the process shows that in the project, the present value of the total life cycle cost under the BOT model is more sensitive to the discount rate and the risk assessment rate than that of the public sector under the PMC model. The research angle of this paper is the government entrusting investment units, although the city of CH city and the old city are under the ground The demand of comprehensive corridor is relatively large, but because the old city is a lot of people, CH city is not planning for the old city underground comprehensive pipe corridor for the time being. Therefore, this paper studies the selection of the construction model of the new town 179.7km underground comprehensive pipe corridor in the scope of the CH city planning, and the construction of the CH city underground comprehensive pipe corridor is planned as a whole by the region and in the year. In the construction, the soil quality and water quality of the metro tunnel section are basically the same, and the government entrusted units are the same. The quantitative calculation is illustrated by the 7.12km comprehensive pipe gallery of HY road section, which can represent the construction of the present underground comprehensive tube Gallery in CH city to some extent.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.24

【参考文献】