中国经济增长放缓原因研究

发布时间：2018-06-13 23:13

本文选题：增长减速 + 潜在增长率　；参考：《华中科技大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：2008年国际金融危机以来,中国经济增长明显放缓,从高速增长转入中高速增长。对于这轮的增速下降到底是由于长期潜在增长率下降引起的还是外部冲击导致的短期经济衰退,学术界仍存在分歧。因此,估计我国当前GDP潜在增长率及当产出缺口对正确理解我国当前的经济下行压力并制定合适的宏观调控政策具有重要的现实意义。本文试图对我国1978—2014年的潜在GDP和产出缺口进行估算,并比较了常见的5种统计滤波方法的优劣。在此基础上,本文使用统计性描述以及计量回归模型,详细考察了影响潜在GDP增长率的诸因素的变化情况。本文研究结论主要有:(1)从2008年开始,我国的潜在GDP增长率开始出现大幅下滑,同时期产出缺口也由正转负,显示出2008年国际金融危机以来,我国出现的经济增速下降是长期潜在增长率下降和短期外部冲击导致产出下降共同作用的结果。(2)自2008年以来,我国劳动力、资本、全要素这三大要素的增长率都出现了恶化:其一,人口老龄化在加重,老年赡养比在攀升,同时20-29岁年龄段的劳动力占比在下降;其二,从2000年起我国的资本存量增长率在不断攀升,这导致从2008年至2014年期间,增量资本产出比(ICOR)上升了3倍,资本的边际产出率已经降到了近30年来最低点;其三,从2012年以后,我国越来越多省份的TFP增长率由正转负。基于以上结论,本文认为提高我国经济增长率需完善养老保障制度,提高劳动参与率;完善经济体制,提高TFP增长率;加快国企改革,加强国企市场化导向,提高国企投资效率。
[Abstract]:Since the 2008 international financial crisis, China's economic growth has slowed obviously, from high-speed growth to high-speed growth. Academia remains divided over whether the slowdown in growth is due to a long-term potential decline in growth or a short-term recession caused by external shocks. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to estimate the potential growth rate of GDP and the output gap in order to correctly understand the downward pressure of China's current economy and formulate appropriate macro-control policies. This paper attempts to estimate the potential GDP and output gap in China from 1978 to 2014, and compares the advantages and disadvantages of five common statistical filtering methods. On this basis, the statistical description and the econometric regression model are used to investigate in detail the changes of the factors affecting the growth rate of potential GDP. The main conclusions of this paper are: (1) since 2008, China's potential GDP growth rate has begun to decline sharply, and the output gap has also changed from positive to negative in the same period, which shows that since the 2008 international financial crisis, The decline in China's economic growth rate is the result of both the decline in long-term potential growth rate and the decline in output caused by short-term external shocks.) since 2008, China's labor force, capital, The growth rate of all three elements has deteriorated: first, the aging population is increasing, the old-age dependency ratio is rising, and the proportion of the workforce in the 20-29 age group is declining. Since 2000, China's capital stock growth rate has been rising, which has led to a threefold increase in incremental capital output compared with ICOR between 2008 and 2014, and the marginal output ratio of capital has fallen to its lowest level in nearly 30 years; thirdly, since 2012, the marginal output ratio of capital has dropped to the lowest level in nearly 30 years. The growth rate of TFP in more and more provinces of China has changed from positive to negative. Based on the above conclusions, this paper holds that to improve the economic growth rate of our country, we should improve the old-age security system, improve the labor participation rate, perfect the economic system, improve the TFP growth rate, accelerate the reform of state-owned enterprises, strengthen the market-oriented orientation of state-owned enterprises. We will improve the investment efficiency of state-owned enterprises.
【学位授予单位】：华中科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F124

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