夜间合法用水量预测与DMA漏损分析方法研究

发布时间：2018-06-15 06:31

本文选题：无收益水量 + DMA技术　；参考：《湖南大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：无收益水量(产销差)是供水企业供水量与售水量之差,主要包括表观漏损和真实漏损,控制和降低无收益水量对节约水资源、降低供水企业经济损失和保障供水安全具有重要意义。由于管网铺设在地下、供水区域广,表观漏损和真实漏损普遍具有隐蔽性、往复性,全面铺开稽查和检漏具有很大的难度,并且时效性很低。DMA技术利用加装的远传流量计和压力设备将管网分割成若干区域,通过实时监控和分析远传流量、压力数据,确定引起区域水量损失的主要因素,是高效控制和降低无收益水量的方式之一。但该技术在应用于我国供水管网漏损控制时仍存在关键参数缺乏、分析预测方法不足的问题,将对分析结果带来一定的干扰。本文以广州市远传户表智能小区和建立的DMA小区为基础,对DMA技术中的夜间合法用水量参数、漏损分析方法进行了研究和优化。夜间合法用水量的分析与量化。首先对不同日期区域居民夜间合法用水总量的变化和用户夜间合法用水的分布规律进行了分析,确定了不同日期的区域夜间合法用水总量围绕平均值在一定范围内上下波动,并发现用户群体的日用水量与夜间合法用水量存在统计学上的同增趋势。然后优化了夜间合法用水量的量化方法,拟合得到“户均日均用水量—户均夜间合法用水量的日平均值”、“夜间合法用水总量的波动范围—平均值”的关系式,可分别用于不同小区夜间合法用水量平均值和波动范围的预测,优于传统的无识别单一参数法。另外,还对不同移动平均条件下的夜间合法用水量变化范围进行了研究与量化。无收益水量平衡分析与表观漏损的判定。基于无收益水量平衡分析的主要过程,确定了真实漏损量化的误差来源,并推导出真实漏损误差的量化公式。以水表计量特性和用户用水模式为基础,建立售水计量误差合理范围的量化方法,将售水计量误差的上限作为表观漏损的判定参数,结合无收益水量平衡分析结果判定和指导表观漏损控制。DMA小区真实漏损的判定。研究建立了夜间最小流量移动平均隔差法快速判定真实漏损,以降低干扰因素的影响,提高判定效率。通过模型和数据样本分析,确定了最优的移动平均天数,以及不同小区漏损判定参数的阈值大小,并讨论了模型的适用条件。
[Abstract]:Non-profit water (production and marketing difference) is the difference between water supply and sale in water supply enterprises, which mainly includes apparent leakage loss and real leakage loss, and the control and reduction of non-income water quantity can save water resources. It is of great significance to reduce the economic loss of water supply enterprises and ensure the safety of water supply. Because the pipe network is laid underground, the water supply area is wide, the apparent leakage and the real leakage are generally hidden and reciprocating, it is very difficult to spread out the inspection and check the leakage completely. And the technology of low timeliness .DMA uses the installed remote Flowmeter and pressure equipment to divide the pipe network into several areas. By monitoring and analyzing the remote flow and pressure data in real time, the main factors causing the water loss in the region are determined. It is one of the ways to control and reduce the non-income water flow efficiently. However, when the technology is applied to the leakage control of water supply network in our country, the key parameters are still lacking and the method of analysis and prediction is insufficient, which will bring some interference to the analysis results. Based on the intelligent residential area of remote home meter and the DMA cell in Guangzhou, this paper studies and optimizes the parameters of water consumption at night and the method of leakage analysis in DMA technology. Analysis and quantification of nightly water consumption. Firstly, the variation of the total amount of legal water used by residents at night and the distribution law of the lawful water use by users at night are analyzed, and it is determined that the total amount of legal water used at night of different dates fluctuates around the average value in a certain range. It is found that the daily water consumption of the user group and the night water consumption have the same increasing trend. Then, the quantitative method of nocturnal legal water consumption is optimized, and the relationship between "daily average water consumption per household" and "the range of fluctuation of the total amount of lawful water consumption at night" is obtained. It can be used to predict the average and fluctuating range of water consumption at night in different residential areas, which is superior to the traditional method without identifying single parameter. In addition, the variation range of nightly water consumption under different moving average conditions was studied and quantified. Analysis of non-profit water balance and determination of apparent leakage loss. Based on the main process of no-return water balance analysis, the error source of real leakage quantization is determined, and the quantization formula of true leakage error is deduced. Based on the metering characteristics of water meter and the water consumption mode of user, the quantitative method of reasonable range of metering error is established, and the upper limit of metering error is taken as the judging parameter of apparent leakage loss. Combined with the analysis results of non-revenue water balance analysis and guidance of apparent leakage control. DMA plot real leakage judgment. In order to reduce the influence of interference factors and improve the efficiency of judgment, the method of moving average interval of minimum flow rate at night is established to determine the real leakage quickly. Through the model and data sample analysis, the optimal moving average days and the threshold value of different cell leakage parameters are determined, and the applicable conditions of the model are discussed.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：TU991.31

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