江苏农业气候资源变化对冬小麦生产影响评估研究

发布时间：2018-06-25 15:18

本文选题：冬小麦 + 农业气候资源　；参考：《南京农业大学》2016年博士论文

【摘要】：随着变暖为主要特征的全球气候变化,全世界农业生产的脆弱性明显增加,对世界粮食安全构成了危害。中国是世界第一人口大国,粮食安全直接影响经济社会的稳定发展,所以,加强气候资源中的农业气候资源变化对粮食安全的影响研究是保障经济社会建康稳定发展的重要措施之一。江苏是中国粮食主要产区之一,粮食总产量稳居全国第五位,江苏冬小麦产量常年占全国的7%左右。因此,研究农业气候资源及其变化对江苏冬小麦生长发育的影响,采取积极应对措施,保障江苏冬小麦生产稳定对保障全国粮食安全具有重要的现实意义。据此,以江苏省气象系统1980-2015年冬小麦生产物候观测资料和1960-2015年气象观测资料为基础,结合农业部门的生产资料和试验研究资料,利用气候学、农业气象学、作物栽培学、数理统计、数值模拟等方法,对江苏农业气候资源变化,对冬小麦的生育期、产量构成要素和单产的影响进行评估,为农业气候资源变化情景下科学种植冬小麦提供依据。江苏冬小麦生长发育期间的关键气象因子(光温水)随着农业气候资源变化发生了明显改变,不同生育阶段的变化程度及其对冬小麦生长发育的影响也是不一样的,具体研究结果如下:(1 )全生育期累计日照时数变化量占常年气候平均值的比例,苏北-2.13%·(10a)-1,苏中-0.71%·(10a)—1,苏南-1.27%·(10a)-1,苏中日照时数相对稳定,苏北和苏南明显减少,尤其苏南日照时数减少更有利于田间渍害加重发生。全省全生育期气温≥0℃活动积温都在增加,增加量占常年气候平均值的比例,苏北2.26%·(10a)-1,苏中2.37%·(10a)-1,2.47%·(103)-1,说明增温速度由北向南递增。分生育期气温≤0℃负积温的气候倾向率除苏中和苏北的起身期为负值(仅-0.03 ～ -0.01℃···(10a)-1)外均为正值,苏北约是苏中和苏南的2和4倍,越冬期是其它生育期的2倍以上,即全省全生育期负积温,尤其越冬期负积温有快速减少的趋势,使得江苏冬小麦越冬期变得越来越不明显。降水量呈现高于或低于400mm的阶段性变化特征,全生育期小雨日数占整个降水日数的比例全省平均80.5%,降水以小雨为主,有利于土壤保墒,利用充分运用降水资源,减少径流,缓解小麦生长期间的旱情。江苏冬小麦全生育期光温生产潜力的改变量占正常年景光温生产潜力的百分比,除苏北中部到苏中北部有一个-3%·( 1 0a)-1且—5%·(10a)—1的区域(属于持平偏减),其它区域均为±3%·(10a)-1之间(属于持平略增或略减)区域,且各生育的百分比的绝对值均小于5%·(10a)-1,绝大部分生育阶段在3%·(10a)-1以内。即,农业气候资源变化并没有引起江苏冬小麦生产潜力明显变化。营养生长期光温生产潜力以减少为主,生殖生长期光温生产潜力以增加为主,这种变化趋势对保障足穗是不利的,但对实现大穗是有利的,即利于提高品质。(2)冬小麦生育期随着生育进程从出苗向成熟期推进,其出现时间越来越稳定,统计学上一般将统计对象稳定在95%以上设定为稳定,据此,计算得出,起身开始生育期出现时间趋于稳定,随农业气候资源变化变幅很小。因此,通过调节生育期来调整生育期长度的关键期阶段在拔节前。农业气候资源变化对穗数的影响,不同生育期的影响程度不同,全生育期改变量以增加为主,约占正常气候年景值的1.98%·(10a)-1。农业气候资源变化对粒数的影响,不同生育期呈现“增-减”交替出现。全生育期的改变量以减少为主,约占正常气候年景的-1.29%·(10a)-1。灌浆渐增期占整合灌浆期的23.4%,灌浆快增期占整合灌浆期的63.6%,灌浆缓增期整合灌浆期的13.0%。即,提高灌浆质量的关键期是灌浆快增期。农业气候资源变化引起光温水的逐时要素变化对不同灌浆期(渐增期、快增期、缓增期)的影响程度差异明显,气象要素影响,温度为1.36g·d-1·(10a)—1,降水为-1.35g·d-1·(10a)-1,日照时数为0.07 g·d-1·(10a)-1;光温水综合影响为 0.08g·d-1·(10a)-1,其中,渐增期为 0.02 g·d-1·(10a)-1,快增期为-0.04g·d-1·(10a)-1,缓增期为g·d-1·(10a)-1。农业气候资源变化对江苏冬小麦单产的影响为-94.069 ～18.942Kg·hm-2·(10a)-1,平均为-5.790 Kg·hm-2·(10a)-1。其中,苏北为-20.229～18.942Kg·him-2·(10a)-1,平均为-7.151 Kg·hm-2·(i0a)-1;苏中为-94.069 ～18.646Kg·hm-2·(10a)-1,平均为-7.497 Kg·hm-2·( 10a)-1;苏南为-14.176 ～9.973Kg·hm-2·(1Oa)-1,平均为-0.746 Kg·hm-2·(10a)-1。江苏农业气候资源变化引起单产较上年增长率改变量,全省为-0.120%· (10a)- ,苏北为-0.071%· (10a)-1,苏中为-0.110%. (10a)—1,苏南为-0.205%· (10a) -1。即农业气候资源变化引起了江苏冬小麦单产和单产较年际增长率的双负增长,对提高冬小麦单产是极为不利的。(3)不同生育阶段发生涝渍害的风险随生育进程推进而加大,全省涝渍害相对指数呈现纬向分布,苏南苏中苏北。涝渍害重点发生区域在苏南,苏北极少发生。江苏的干旱风险总体上由北向南减弱,苏南和苏中干旱风险都在轻度以下,苏北冬小麦生育前后期都在轻度以上,少数时间达到重度,不同生育期干旱风险指数,苏北苏中苏南。江苏冬小麦生长发育期间北部以干旱影响为主,南部以涝渍害影响为主,中部以干旱和涝渍害共同影响为主,因此,对不同区域要采取不同的栽培管理技术措施来应对涝渍害和干旱的危害。正常气候年景下,干旱对单产的影响程度要明显大于涝渍害的影响,全省涝渍害和干旱的综合影响均是引起单产下降,全省平均幅度占近5年单产平均的-0.78%。江苏冬小麦生长前期和后期随着农业气候资源变化,干旱有加重的趋势,且强度有增强的趋势。播种到分蘖这一阶段是决定能否一播全苗和壮苗越冬,而能否壮苗越冬对产量和品质影响很大。拔节到成熟期间是产量和品质形成的关键阶段,期间发生旱情直接影响产量和品质。因此,必须研究应对干旱的抗逆栽培技术措施,减缓农业气候资源变化的影响。
[Abstract]:With global warming as the main feature of global climate change, the vulnerability of agricultural production in the world is obviously increased and it is harmful to the world food security. China is the world's first population country, and the food security has a direct impact on the stable development of the economy and society. Therefore, the influence of the change of agricultural climate resources in the climate resources on the food security is strengthened. Research is one of the important measures to ensure the stable development of economic and social construction. Jiangsu is one of the major grain producing areas in China, the total grain output is fifth in the country, and the winter wheat production in Jiangsu occupies about 7% of the country. Therefore, the study of the influence of agricultural climate resources and its changes on the growth and development of Winter Wheat in Jiangsu is taken to take positive measures. In order to ensure the stability of winter wheat production in Jiangsu, it is of great practical significance to ensure national grain security. Based on the observation data of winter wheat production and meteorological observation data of 1960-2015 years as the basis of the 1980-2015 year meteorological system in Jiangsu Province, the production and test data of the agricultural department are combined with the climatology and agricultural meteorology. The methods of physical culture, mathematical statistics and numerical simulation are used to evaluate the changes of agricultural climate resources in Jiangsu, the growth period of winter wheat, the factors of yield components and the effect of single yield, and provide the basis for scientific planting of Winter Wheat under the situation of agricultural climate change. The key meteorological factors during the growth and development of Winter Wheat in Jiangsu (light warm water) The changes of agricultural climate resources have changed obviously, and the changes of different growth stages and their influence on the growth and development of winter wheat are different. The specific results are as follows: (1) the proportion of cumulative sunshine hours in the whole growth period accounts for the average annual climate, -2.13% (10a) -1, Suzhou -0.71%. (10a) - 1, South of Jiangsu -1.27%. (10a) -1, the sunshine hours in the Soviet Union were relatively stable, and the northern Jiangsu and South of Jiangsu decreased significantly, especially in South of Jiangsu, the decrease in sunshine hours was more conducive to the aggravation of the field stains. The total temperature of the whole growth period of the whole province was increasing, the increase in the temperature of 0 degrees centigrade, the proportion of the increase in the average annual climate, the North Jiangsu 2.26% (10a) -1, the 2.37%. (10a) -1,2.47%. (103) -1 in Suzhou. The temperature rate increased from north to south. The climatic tendency of the temperature less than 0 C in the growth period was negative (only -0.03 ~ -0.01 C / 10A -1) was positive, and the northern Jiangsu was about 2 and 4 times of the Soviet neutralization and South of Jiangsu, and the overwintering period was more than 2 times of the other growth periods, that is, the whole growth period of the whole province was negative accumulated temperature, especially the overwintering period. The negative accumulated temperature has a tendency to decrease rapidly, making the winter wheat overwintering in Jiangsu become less and more obvious. The precipitation is higher or lower than 400mm, and the number of rain days in the whole period of the whole growth period accounts for 80.5% of the whole province, and the precipitation is mainly small rain, which is beneficial to soil moisture conservation, and the utilization of precipitation resources is reduced. Less runoff, alleviating the drought during the period of wheat growth. The change in the light and temperature production potential of the winter wheat during the whole growth period of Jiangsu winter wheat accounted for the percentage of the normal annual light and temperature production potential, except for a region of -3% (1 0A) -1 and 5%. (10A) - 1 in the middle of Northern Jiangsu and Northern Jiangsu, and the other regions were 3%. (10a) -1 (belong to the same level). The absolute value of the region and the percentage of each fertility was less than 5%. (10a) -1, and most of the growth stages were within 3%. (10a) -1. That is, the changes in agricultural climate resources did not cause a significant change in the production potential of Winter Wheat in Jiangsu. Mainly, this change trend is unfavorable for ensuring the foot panicle, but it is beneficial to the realization of large spikes, which is beneficial to the improvement of quality. (2) as the growth period of winter wheat advances from emergence to mature period, the time of its emergence is more and more stable. The onset time of the birth time tends to be stable, with the change of the agro climatic resources change very small. Therefore, the key stage of adjusting the length of the growth period by adjusting the growth period is before jointing. The influence of the change of agricultural climate resources on the number of spikes is different, the change of the whole growth period is increased mainly, which accounts for the normal climate. The effect of 1.98% (10a) (10a) -1. on the number of agro climatic resources in the annual growth period showed an alternation of "increase and decrease" in different growth periods. The change of the whole growth period was reduced mainly, and the period of -1.29% (10a) -1. filling in the normal climate accounted for 23.4% of the integrated filling period, 63.6% of the filling period and the slow filling period of the filling period. The key period for improving the quality of grain filling during the filling period is that the key period for improving the quality of grain filling is the period of rapid grouting. The difference of the influence degree of the time to time factors of the light and warm water caused by the change of agricultural climate resources on the different filling periods (gradually increasing, fast increasing, slowly increasing) is obvious, the temperature is 1.36g. D-1. (10a) - 1, and the precipitation is -1.35g. D-1. (10a) -1. The illumination time was 0.07 G. D-1. (10a) -1, and the comprehensive effect of light temperature water was 0.08g. D-1. (10a) -1, and the gradual increase period was 0.02 g D-1. (10a) -1. (10a) -1., the North Jiangsu is -20.229 to 18.942Kg. Him-2. (10a) -1, the average is -7.151 Kg hm-2. (i0a) -1. The annual growth rate changes, the province is -0.120% (10a) -, the northern Jiangsu is -0.071% (10a) -1, the Soviet Union is -0.110%. (10a) - 1, South of Jiangsu is -0.205%. (10a) -1. that the agricultural climate resources change the double negative growth of the winter wheat yield and the interannual growth rate of the winter wheat in Jiangsu, which is extremely unfavorable to raising the yield of winter wheat. (3) different reproductive stages. The risk of waterlogging and waterlogging is increased with the growth process, and the relative index of waterlogging and waterlogging in South of Jiangsu is zonal distribution. The key areas of waterlogging in Northern Jiangsu Province are in South of Jiangsu, and North Jiangsu rarely occurs. The drought risk in Jiangsu is generally weakened from north to south, and the drought risks in South of Jiangsu and Suzhou are all below the mildly, and the winter wheat in Northern Jiangsu is in the early and late period of birth. They are all in the light, a few time to severe, different period of drought risk index, northern Suzhou South of Jiangsu. During the period of Winter Wheat in Jiangsu, the northern part of winter wheat is mainly drought, the south is mainly affected by waterlogging, and the central part is drought and waterlogging. Therefore, different cultivation management techniques should be taken to different regions. In the normal climate, the impact of drought on the yield of single yield is obviously greater than that of waterlogging, and the comprehensive effects of waterlogging and drought in the province are all caused by the decrease of single yield, and the average range of the province's average yield of -0.78%. Jiangsu winter wheat in the early and late period of the province is with the agricultural climate capital. In this stage of sowing to tillering, it is determined whether the whole seedling and the strong seedlings can be overwintered, and whether the overwintering of the strong seedlings will have a great influence on the yield and quality. The period of jointing to maturity is the key stage of the yield and quality formation, and the drought affects the yield and quality directly. We must study the measures to cope with drought resistance and mitigate the impact of changes in agro climatic resources.
【学位授予单位】：南京农业大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：S512.11

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