劳动力流动、政府保护与工资效应

发布时间：2018-06-29 02:04

本文选题：劳动力流动 + 政府保护　；参考：《重庆大学》2016年博士论文

【摘要】：国内不断出现的劳动年龄人口和流动人口双减、劳资纠纷频发、普通劳动者工资持续上涨等经济现象,迫使政府、企业及流动劳动力需要重新审视流动劳动力和政府保护的工资效应。伴随着人口红利的消失,劳动密集型产业的低成本优势不复存在,倒逼产业结构转型升级,经济增长方式向集约型、创新型方向转变,在这种情况下,劳动生产率的提高是劳动力工资上涨的基础。然而,劳动供需关系的逆转引发了“刘易斯拐点”是否到来、如何延长第二次人口红利的广泛思考,由供给短缺引致的工资上涨不仅会使企业成本增加还会导致潜在经济增长率下降,不利于经济的可持续发展。由此可见,劳动力工资上涨的来源存在争议。在经济发展过程中,户籍制度成为农村劳动力自由流动的桎梏,严重降低了市场机制对劳动力资源配置的灵活性;同时,城市偏向型政策既影响了流动劳动力作为劳动力供给“蓄水池”作用的发挥,又剥夺了农村劳动力分享经济成果的权利;区域的不均衡发展进一步弱化了流动劳动力的经济和社会地位。基于此,本文从微观角度讨论在劳动合同约束条件下影响市场分离均衡结果形成的企业和劳动力因素;并从宏观视角系统性地考察流动劳动力、政府保护与工资效应的传导机理。首先,梳理了国内外相关研究文献的研究视角、方法和结论,并利用国内各地区的数据定性刻画了劳动力流动、劳动保护和平均工资的客观现实,发现农村劳动力的受保护水平较低、具有行业歧视性、利益诉求渠道有限;劳动力流入地和流出的工资水平差距较大、呈现“两极”分化趋势;流入地和流出地劳动争议案件数的空间相关性逐渐递增,但辐射效应都不明显。在此背景下,构建了在劳动合同约束条件下,包含劳动力的违约成本、沉没成本和社会额外损失成本在内的信号博弈模型,依据企业和流动劳动力预期收益分析市场混同均衡、分离均衡结果。从企业层面把遏制违约行为的成本分为前期搜集成本和后期惩罚成本两部分,得到影响市场分离均衡结果的因素是搜集成本、惩罚概率、惩罚力度和各类型劳动力所占的比重,通过数值模拟验证在约束条件下市场的长期最优策略结果是分离均衡。然后,通过对分行业、分地区就业人员平均工资进行重新构造,并进一步分解为与工资相关的产业结构指数和劳动力供给指数,理论上表明工资上涨来自产业结构升级或劳动力供给量的减少。各指标的计算结果表明:国内28个地区的产业结构出现了显著的改善;低于全国劳动力供给水平的地区同时集中在劳动力需求旺盛和不足的地区;实际上,工资上涨的动力来自劳动力供给量的减少。鉴于此,把产业结构和劳动力供给视为影响流动劳动力工资效应的直接因素,把劳动保护和经济增长视为间接影响因素,把产业结构和经济增长的交互效应、劳动保护和流动劳动力之间的反馈机制、以及流动劳动力和劳动保护的空间效应同时纳入并建立联立方程模型。基于2003-2013年省级面板数据分别对模型进行OLS回归,不包含交互项和包含交互项的3sls,引入因变量滞后一期进行一步差分GMM估计以考察序列相关对结果稳健性的影响,总体来看,计量结果具有可信性。实证检验结果表明:增加本地劳动力流入量会引起该地区的就业人员流向低附加值产业,同时会引起该地区相对劳动力供给量的减少,在一定程度上抵消外地劳动力流入对本地工资的负面压力;邻近地区劳动力流入量提高该地区低附加值产业就业比重的同时也会引起相对劳动力供给量的增加,对本地工资水平具有恶化作用。另外,流入本地劳动力增加会强化政府保护,而流入邻近地区劳动力增加会弱化政府保护;然而,加强政府保护在对本地劳动力流动的工资效应产生负面影响的同时却对外地劳动力流动的工资效应产生正面影响,意味着流动劳动力和政府保护存在显著的相互作用机制和空间依赖性。低附加值产业对地区经济的绑架效应显著存在,并且不能随着经济水平的提高而消失,反而随着经济的发展而提高。最后,根据以上的研究结论,分别从合理安置流动劳动力、加快产业结构调整升级、严格遵守劳动合同法加强劳动保护程度、打破行政壁垒形成区域一体化共谋发展等方面提出相应的政策建议,并指出文中存在有待于进一步改进的地方,以及后续的研究方向。
[Abstract]:The economic phenomena such as the declining labor age population and the floating population in China, the frequent labor disputes and the continuous rising of the wages of ordinary workers have forced the government, the enterprises and the mobile labor to reexamine the wage effect of the migrant labor and the government protection. In this case, the increase of labor productivity is the basis for the rise of labor wages. However, the reversal of the relationship between labor and demand leads to the arrival of the "Lewis inflection point" and how to extend the extensive thought of the second demographic dividend. In the process of economic development, the household registration system has become a shackle of the free flow of labor force in the rural areas, which has seriously reduced the market in the process of economic development. The flexibility of the field mechanism for the allocation of labor resources; at the same time, the urban biased policy not only affects the role of the mobile labor force as the "reservoir" of the labor supply, but also deprives the rural labor force to share the economic results, and the unbalanced development of the region further weakens the economic and social status of the mobile labor force. From the micro angle, this paper discusses the enterprises and labor factors that affect the results of market separation and equilibrium under the constraints of labor contract, and systematically investigates the transmission mechanism of the migrant labor force and the wage effect from the macro perspective. First, it combs the research perspective, methods and conclusions of the research literature at home and abroad. Using the data of various regions in China to characterize the labor flow, labor protection and the objective reality of average wages, it is found that the protection level of the rural labor force is low, the industry is discriminatory and the channel of interest demand is limited; the wage level gap between the labor force inflow and the outflow is relatively large, showing the polarization trend of "two poles" and the inflow and outflow. The spatial correlation of the number of labor dispute cases is increasing gradually, but the radiation effect is not obvious. Under this background, the signal game model, including the labor contract cost, the sunk cost and the social extra cost, is constructed under the conditions of labor contract, and the market mix is analyzed according to the expected income of the enterprise and the floating labor force. From the enterprise level, the cost of the defaulting behavior is divided into two parts: the early collection cost and the late penalty cost. The factors that affect the market separation equilibrium result are the cost, the penalty probability, the punishment strength and the weight of the various types of labor force, and the market is verified under the constraint conditions by numerical simulation. The result of the long-term optimal strategy is the separation equilibrium. Then, the average wage of the employment personnel in the sub region is restructured, and further decomposed into the wage related industrial structure index and the labor supply index. In theory, the wage rise comes from the industrial structure upgrading or the decrease of the labor supply. The results show that the industrial structure of the 28 regions in China has been significantly improved; the areas below the national labor supply level are concentrated in the areas where the labor demand is strong and inadequate; in fact, the motivation of the wage increase comes from the decrease of the labor supply. In view of this, the industrial structure and labor supply are regarded as the impact of the flow. The direct factors of the wage effect of labor force regard labor protection and economic growth as indirect influencing factors. The interaction effect of industrial structure and economic growth, the feedback mechanism between labor protection and migrant labor, and the spatial effect of migrant labor and labor protection are incorporated and established by the simultaneous equation model for 2003-2013 years. The provincial panel data are OLS regression to the model, and the interaction term and the 3SLS containing the interaction items are not included. The effect of the sequence correlation on the robustness of the results is investigated by introducing the one step difference GMM estimate of the dependent variable lag phase. In general, the measurement results have credibility. The empirical results show that the increase of local labor inflow will lead to the increase of the local labor inflow. The flow of workers in the region to low value-added industries will also cause a decrease in the relative labor supply in the region, to a certain extent, to offset the negative pressure on local wages by the inflow of labor force in the other areas; and the labor inflow in the adjacent areas will increase the employment proportion of the low value-added industries in the region as well as the relative labor force. The increase in supply has a worsening effect on the local wage level. In addition, the increase in local labor force will strengthen government protection, while the increase in labor force in adjacent areas will weaken the government protection; however, the increase of government protection has a negative effect on the wage effect of local labor flow while flowing to the foreign labor force. There is a positive impact on the wage effect, which means that there is a significant interaction mechanism and spatial dependence between the mobile labor force and the government protection. The abduction effect of the low value-added industry to the regional economy is significant, and can not disappear with the economic level, but is improved with the development of the economy. Finally, according to the above research The conclusion is that the corresponding policy suggestions are put forward in terms of rational resettlement of migrant labor, accelerating the adjustment and upgrading of industrial structure, strictly observing the labor contract law, strengthening the degree of labor protection and breaking the regional integration and conspiracy development of administrative barriers, and pointing out that there is a place to be further improved in the article and the future research direction.
【学位授予单位】：重庆大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F249.2

【参考文献】