不同来源收入及其不确定性对山西农村居民消费影响研究

发布时间：2018-06-29 19:43

本文选题：收入来源 + 收入不确定性　；参考：《山西财经大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：目前,我国经济增长由高速增长进入中高速增长阶段,近几年出口和投资对经济增长的拉动作用均有所下降,消费作为经济增长的基础作用日益凸显。1992年,我国社会主义市场经济体制确立,从此我国进入转型经济时期,不确定性越来越凸显出来,深刻的影响着我国居民的消费。山西省作为我国中部地区经济发展缓慢的省份,在转型经济的大背景下,使得山西居民面临的不确定性越来越大,从而严重的影响着山西居民的消费,制约着山西经济的进一步发展。为了解决这一问题,本文在西方消费理论的基础上,结合山西农村居民的实际情况,从不同来源收入出发,进一步分析不同来源收入及其不确定性,是否会在不同程度上对山西农村居民消费产生影响,并提出一些政策建议,这对山西省制定消费政策有一定的理论和实践意义。本文采用1992--2013年的山西省农村居民收入和消费数据,依据统计年鉴中对收入来源分为四类,并借鉴已有学者的相关研究,采用调整离差来测量不同来源收入的不确定性。将理论分析和实证分析相结合,从定性和定量分析的角度,以持久性收入假说和预防性储蓄理论为基础,分析不同来源收入及其不确定性如何影响山西农村居民消费。最后根据分析得出结论并提出相关政策建议。本文对山西省农村居民不同来源收入的不确定预期对消费的影响进行分析,研究发现:工资性收入和转移性收入显著影响着山西农村居民的消费,其中,工资性收入对山西农村居民消费的拉动作用较大,转移性收入的拉动作用较小。并且,工资性收入不确定性和转移性性收入不确定性都显著负向的影响着山西农村居民消费。针对这样的问题,从政府角度来说,应该对山西农村居民进城务工做到一定的保障,促进农村居民工资性收入的稳定性;增加惠农政策的连续持久,促使山西农村居民转移性收入持续稳定增加。此外,对于农村居民而言,家庭经营纯收入所占收入的比重仍然较大,故还应积极推进现代农业在山西农村的发展,做好农产品市场风险的防范工作,促进农村居民农作物稳定增收。同时,进一步完善农村金融投资机制,进而对山西农村居民财产性收入的增加做出一定的改进。
[Abstract]:At present, China's economic growth has moved from high speed growth to medium and high speed growth stage. In recent years, the pulling effect of export and investment on economic growth has declined, and consumption, as the basis of economic growth, has become increasingly prominent. Since the establishment of socialist market economy system, uncertainty has become more and more prominent in the period of China's transition economy, which has a profound impact on the consumption of Chinese residents. Shanxi Province, as a province with slow economic development in the central region of China, under the background of the transition economy, makes the residents of Shanxi face more and more uncertainty, thus seriously affecting the consumption of Shanxi residents. Restrict the further development of Shanxi economy. In order to solve this problem, based on the western consumption theory and the actual situation of rural residents in Shanxi, this paper further analyzes the income from different sources and its uncertainty from different sources. Whether the consumption of rural residents in Shanxi will be affected in varying degrees, and put forward some policy recommendations, which has certain theoretical and practical significance for Shanxi Province to formulate consumption policy. Based on the data of income and consumption of rural residents in Shanxi Province from 1992 to 2013, this paper divides the income sources into four categories according to the statistical yearbook, and uses the relevant research of scholars to measure the uncertainty of income from different sources by adjusting the deviation. Combining theoretical analysis with empirical analysis, this paper, from the perspective of qualitative and quantitative analysis, analyzes how income from different sources and its uncertainty affect rural residents' consumption in Shanxi Province, based on the hypothesis of persistent income and the precautionary saving theory. Finally, according to the analysis to draw conclusions and put forward relevant policy recommendations. This paper analyzes the influence of the uncertain expectation of rural residents' income from different sources on consumption in Shanxi Province, and finds that wage income and transfer income significantly affect the consumption of rural residents in Shanxi Province. Wage income plays a greater role in pulling rural residents' consumption in Shanxi Province, but less in transferring income. Moreover, the uncertainty of wage income and transfer income has a significant negative impact on rural residents' consumption in Shanxi. In view of such problems, from the government's point of view, we should provide certain protection for rural residents in Shanxi to work in cities, promote the stability of rural residents' wage income, and increase the continuous and lasting benefits of agricultural policies. Shanxi rural residents to promote the transfer of income sustained and stable increase. In addition, for rural residents, the net income of household management is still a large proportion of income, so we should actively promote the development of modern agriculture in rural areas of Shanxi, and do a good job in preventing the market risks of agricultural products. We will promote a steady increase in the income of the crops of rural residents. At the same time, further improve the rural financial investment mechanism, and further improve the property income of rural residents in Shanxi.
【学位授予单位】：山西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F323.8

【参考文献】