我国影子银行规模对货币政策有效性影响分析

发布时间：2018-06-29 17:09

本文选题：影子银行体系 + 影子银行规模　；参考：《天津财经大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：影子银行体系,是指那些有着类似传统商业银行体系信用创造的功能但却游离于货币局监管体系之外的相关机构和业务活动。随着我国影子银行规模的不断增长,其以高杠杆、高利润的特点为经济的繁荣和发展作出了巨大贡献,但是其信用创造功能,影响了央行信贷调控的基础,使传统的货币供应量指标统计失灵,导致货币传导机制变得更加的不可控,为我国的货币政策的效果带来了巨大挑战。因此,在此背景下如何不断完善我国货币政策,提高其政策的有效性,进而更好地服务于实体经济的健康发展,值得深入探讨和研究。论文在前人研究和政府机构对影子银行分类的基础上,将我国影子银行体系分成了三部分,即委托贷款、未贴现银行承兑汇票和未观测信贷,并测算出规模。在理论分析完我国影子银行规模对货币政策有效性的影响机理之后,然后选取2004年5月至2015年12月影子银行规模SB、货币政策中介目标(M2)、货币政策最终目标(GDP和CPI)、货币政策传导机制指标(RATE和LOAN)等数据,构建了 SVAR(4)模型实证分析了我国影子银行规模对货币政策有效性产生的影响。结果表明,影子银行规模对GDP增长存在2期的滞后,之后短期对经济增长起到正向的促进作用,长期对经济增长也有负面的影响;对CPI上涨存在持续的推动作用,其贡献度达到18%;对货币政策中介目标M2具有较大的负效应,其贡献度达到25%;对银行间同业拆借利率RATE具有正向作用,其贡献度达到20%;对商业银行信贷具有负向作用,其贡献度达到15%。最后,基于实证结论提出了提高我国货币政策有效性的政策建议,具体包括加强对货币政策传导机制的疏通、对货币政策中介目标的改进、对货币政策工具篮子的扩大等。
[Abstract]:Shadow banking system refers to the related institutions and business activities which have the function of credit creation similar to the traditional commercial banking system but are outside the supervision system of the Monetary Bureau. With the continuous growth of the scale of shadow banking in China, it has made great contributions to the prosperity and development of the economy with the characteristics of high leverage and high profit. However, its credit creation function has affected the basis of the credit regulation and control of the central bank. The statistical failure of the traditional money supply index causes the monetary transmission mechanism to become more uncontrollable and brings great challenges to the effect of monetary policy in China. Therefore, how to improve China's monetary policy, improve its effectiveness and serve the healthy development of the real economy in this context is worthy of further discussion and study. On the basis of previous studies and the classification of shadow banking by government agencies, the paper divides the shadow banking system into three parts: entrusted loan, non-discounted bank acceptance draft and non-observed credit, and calculates the scale. After the theoretical analysis of the influence mechanism of shadow banking scale on the effectiveness of monetary policy, Then, from May 2004 to December 2015, the shadow bank size SBS, the intermediate target of monetary policy (M2), the final target of monetary policy (GDP and CPI), the monetary policy transmission mechanism index (date and load) and so on are selected. The SVAR (4) model is constructed to analyze the effect of shadow banking scale on the effectiveness of monetary policy. The results show that the scale of shadow banking has two periods of lag to GDP growth, and the short-term has a positive effect on economic growth, and a long-term negative impact on economic growth. It has a negative effect on monetary policy intermediate target M2 with a contribution of 25%; a positive effect on the interbank lending rate (RATE) with a contribution of 20%; and a negative effect on commercial bank credit. Its contribution reaches 15. Finally, based on the empirical conclusions, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions to improve the effectiveness of monetary policy in China, including strengthening the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, improving the intermediate target of monetary policy, expanding the basket of monetary policy tools, and so on.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F822.0;F832.3

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