我国商贸流通领域火灾事故状况调查分析及对策研究

发布时间：2018-06-30 19:05

本文选题：商贸流通领域 + 火灾事故　；参考：《中国地质大学(北京)》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：商贸流通领域是国民经济的重要组成部分,涉及衣、食、住、行等各个方面,与人民日常生活密不可分,其数量和规模大小是衡量一个城市发达程度的重要指标之一。本文研究的商贸流通领域是指包括商场、超市、室内集贸市场、室外集贸市场、其他商铺、宾馆/招待所、公共娱乐场所、餐饮场所,以及物资仓储场所在内的这九类场所。商贸流通场所作为人员流动性大、火灾载荷大的场所,易发生重特大火灾事故,造成严重的人员伤亡、直接和间接经济损失。研究商贸流通领域火灾事故的特征和规律,预测火灾事故发展趋势,可以为政府和经营单位提供消防安全管理工作方面的指导,从而采取相应的对策措施,预防和减少火灾发生,降低事故损失,对促进经济健康发展和社会稳定具有重大意义。本文的主要研究内容和成果如下:(1)进行了商贸火灾事故的特征和规律研究。采集我国2007-2013年商贸流通领域九类场所发生火灾事故的数据,对数据进行了统计分析,绘制了统计直方图,得到了商贸火灾发生频率、起火原因、区域分布和季度分布的分布规律以及随时间的变化规律。(2)研究建立了火灾事故发展趋势的预测模型并进行了模拟。采用时间序列分析的方法,选用2007-2012年每季度发生全国商贸流通领域较大及以上火灾事故的起数数据和伤亡人数数据,运用Eviews软件建立了ARIMA?0,0,8?预测模型,通过检验认为该模型是适合的,并运用该模型对2013年一季度~四季度的商贸火灾情况进行了动态预测,得到模型的拟合度很好、预测结果具有很高的精确性的结论。(3)总结了我国商贸消防工作的现状和问题,研究了商贸流通领域的消防安全管理对策。结合商贸火灾特性和发生规律,分别从优化政府领导和监管工作、优化商贸经营单位消防安全管理,以及充分发挥第三方组织的作用的角度,提出了改进商贸消防安全管理工作的相应对策。提出了商贸流通领域的消防管理工作应形成政府领导监管、经营单位全面负责、第三方组织有效支持的三角形结构。
[Abstract]:Commercial circulation is an important part of the national economy, involving clothing, food, housing, transportation and other aspects, and people's daily life is inseparable, its quantity and size is one of the important indicators to measure the developed degree of a city. The commercial circulation fields studied in this paper include shopping malls, supermarkets, indoor markets, outdoor markets, other shops, hotels / guesthouses, public entertainment places, food and beverage places, as well as material storage places. As a place with large personnel mobility and heavy fire load, commercial and commercial circulation places are prone to serious fire accidents, resulting in serious casualties and direct and indirect economic losses. To study the characteristics and laws of fire accidents in the field of commercial and commercial circulation, and to predict the development trend of fire accidents, can provide guidance to the government and management units in the management of fire safety, so as to take corresponding countermeasures. It is of great significance to prevent and reduce the occurrence of fire and reduce the loss of accident to promote the healthy development of economy and social stability. The main contents and achievements of this paper are as follows: (1) the characteristics and laws of commercial fire accidents are studied. From 2007 to 2013, the data of fire accidents occurred in nine kinds of places in China's commercial circulation field were collected, the data were statistically analyzed, and the statistical histogram was drawn, and the frequency of commercial and commercial fires and the causes of fire were obtained. The distribution law of regional and quarterly distribution and its variation with time. (2) the prediction model of fire accident development trend is established and simulated. Using the method of time series analysis, selecting the starting data and casualty data of fire accidents occurred in the commercial circulation field of China in the period of 2007-2012, and using Eviews software to establish Arima 0 / 0 / 0? The forecasting model is proved to be suitable by testing, and the model is used to predict the commercial fire situation from the first quarter to the fourth quarter of 2013, and the fitting degree of the model is very good. The forecast result has the very high accuracy conclusion. (3) summarizes the present situation and the question of the commercial fire fighting work in our country, studies the fire safety management countermeasure in the commercial circulation field. From the angle of optimizing government leadership and supervision, optimizing fire safety management of commercial and commercial units, and giving full play to the role of third-party organizations, combined with the characteristics and regularity of commercial and commercial fires, The corresponding countermeasures to improve the management of commercial fire safety are put forward. It is pointed out that the fire protection management in the field of commercial and commercial circulation should form a triangular structure, which should be supervised by the government, fully responsible by the management unit and effectively supported by the third party organization.
【学位授予单位】：中国地质大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：X928.7

【相似文献】