中国商业银行盈利能力影响因素实证研究

发布时间：2018-07-08 10:56

本文选题：商业银行 + 盈利能力　；参考：《西南财经大学》2007年硕士论文

【摘要】： 商业银行的盈利能力是其发展生存最重要的因素。因此各国的商业银行都将盈利性这一指标放在银行经营的首位进行考虑。但是由于我国长期以来实行计划经济体制的原因,中国的商业银行过去往往只注重规模的扩张,却忽视了银行最重要的盈利性指标。根据国际权威机构的排名,中国的四大国有商业银行无论在一级资本还是在总资产的排名上都名列前茅,但盈利指标的排名却在600名之后。在一些国外咨询公司对中国国有银行的研究中,也发现中国国有商业银行在安全性和效率方面存在着很大的问题。随着科技的进步和网络的快速发展,全球化己成为世界金融发展不可阻挡的趋势。在此背景下,面对中国金融业市场化的趋势和资本市场的快速形成,中国的银行业正面临着巨大的挑战,尤其是在中国加入世界贸易组织之后,外资银行更可以凭借其雄厚的资本实力、多样化的金融服务、现代化的技术手段进入目前国内银行占优势的业务领域,给中国的商业银行带来较大的竞争压力。由于历史包袱过重,中国的商业银行特别是国有银行普遍存在资产质量较差、经营管理水平不足、业务创新能力较低的问题,经过近年来的金融体制改革,原有问题已经得到一定改善,但是要在中国金融业对外资银行完全放开前的数年内较快提高竞争能力,除了处理好以前遗留下来的呆帐、坏帐,提高资产质量以外,更要重视增强银行的盈利能力,才能保证银行的持续发展。由于银行经营的“商品”是货币,而且大部分的营运资金来自于社会公众的存款和其他各种负债,银行经营的安全与否对整个社会的信用体系有很大的影响。各国银行约定俗成遵守的1988年颁布的《巴塞尔条约》就是以风险管理为核心内容,所以,以往对银行经营的安全性、流动性研究较多,而对银行盈利能力的研究较少。但是对任何企业来说,只有具备了良好的盈利能力,才能保证企业的长久发展,商业银行当然也不例外。而中国商业银行盈利能力低下一直是银行经营中的一个大问题,对于股东和投资者来说,盈利是他们投资的目的,只有盈利能力强的商业银行才能使他们的投资得到回报;对公众来说,较强的盈利能力是银行抵御相关风险的保证。所以,对银行盈利能力的研究具有十分重要的意义。当前,四大国有银行向真正的商业银行的转变,引起了对其盈利能力的日益关注,对这方面专门的研究和分析也有所增加。目前对国内商业银行盈利能力的分析思路主要有两种,第一种通过分析银行效率及资产状况等其他因素,从侧面考察银行的盈利能力状况。第二种思路则将重点放在对商业银行盈利能力的直接考察考察。主要是从财务分析的角度出发,通过对商业银行主要盈利指标,如资本利润率、资产收益率等在几年内的变化趋势及与其他银行的比较,分析银行的盈利能力现状和影响因素。但是采用计量经济模型,对商业银行进行大规模实证分析的文献则非常有限。而本文则试图采用计量分析工具突破这一限制。在论文的结构安排上,本文分为导论和五个章节: 第一章为绪论。主要介绍本选题研究的背景、意义、文献综述、论文的主要内容及创新点。第二章进行中国商业银行盈利能力影响因素规范分析。综合各种文献和专家学者的相关论述,将商业银行盈利能力影响因素概括为商业银行自身的因素与外部宏观经济环境因素。自身的因素概括为资产质量、资本充足度、流动性状况、营运效率、银行规模这五个方面。外部影响因素则分包括经济活动的景气状况和法律制度因素。从微观和宏观层面构建了影响商业银行盈利性的完整体系。第三章介绍银行盈利能力的实证模型。本文通过采用面板数据模型,对中国14家主要商业银行从1999年至2005年这7年间的财务指标进行实证分析。本章重点介绍了面板数据的定义和分析、检验方法。在该模型中,首先按国有商业银行和一般性质的股份制商业银行对数据指标进行分类,再对数据进行融合分析,并提出假设检验,以验证国有商业银行与股份制商业银行在盈利性因素上是否存在一致性。第四章采用实证方法研究了中国国有商业银行盈利能力现状。文章将影响商业银行盈利性因素分为银行自身的相关特征以及外部环境的影响因素两大类。具体筛选出:资产收益率(ROA)、净贷款余额占总资产比例(NL/TA)、贷款损失拨备占总资产比率(LLR/TA)、权益资本占资产比率(EQ/TA)、现金资产占总资产的比率(LIQUIDITY)、非利息费用占总资产的比重(OVERHEAD)、总资产数量(TA)、国内生产总值(GDP)、通货膨胀率(INFLATION)、存款占总资产比重(DEPOSIT /TA)等十个指标,运用面板数据模型分别对国有商业银行和股份制商业银行进行实证分析,再将这两类银行结合在一起进行融合分析,在此基础上评价中国商业银行盈利能力状况,并对分析的数据作了深入的经济意义上的剖析。第五章结合前四章的实证分析结果,提出了提高中国商业银行盈利能力的策略建议。在分析影响商业银行盈利能力的内部因素基础上,提出了:适度调整贷款规模,加快各银行会计制度的建设,推进商业银行“扁平化”改革等几项措施。而着眼于外部条件,则提出需要保持整个国民经济健康迅速的发展,加大我国资本市场的改革力度,完善商业银行监管的各项法律制度等措施,为我国商业银行经营创造良好的外部经济环境。在研究方法上,本文在归纳总结影响商业银行盈利能力的内、外部因素的基础上,通过选用具体财务指标构建面板数据计量分析模型,并利用计量模型,分析各指标在影响商业银行盈利性时的权重,从微观层面和宏观层面来实证考察影响商业银行盈利能力因素,找出提高我国商业银行盈利能力的方法。本文在研究中有几个特色: 第一,第一次从理论和实证的角度较系统探讨了中国商业银行盈利能力。从本文搜集到的资料看,对于商业银行盈利能力的专门研究还不是很多,未能形成较为完善的理论框架。而仅有的实证研究也多为实例研究,主要是从财务分析的角度出发,通过对商业银行主要盈利指标,如资本利润率、资产收益率等在几年内的变化趋势及与其他银行的比较,分析银行的盈利能力现状和影响因素。而采用计量经济模型,对商业银行进行大规模实证分析的文献则更加有限。笔者试图利用计量经济模型突破这一瓶颈。第二,本文构建了影响商业银行盈利能力的指标体系,并筛选出十个相关指标全方面考察影响商业银行的盈利能力因素,详细剖析了国有商业银行盈利能力低下的原因。第三,本文采用面板数据模型,首先将国有商业银行与股份制商业银行的数据进行融合分析,再按资产规模将中国商业银行分为四大国有商业银行与股份制商业银行,分别对其进行实证分析,以检验各项因素对国有商业银行与股份制商业银行的盈利能力影响状况,最终考察各项影响商业银行盈利能力因素的指标对整个中国银行业的影响状况。这在实证方法上是一次新的突破。第四,讨论了目前制肘中国商业银行盈利能力的因素,并在深入分析的基础上,提出了提高我国商业银行盈利能力的建议,特别是提出了我国商业银行如何进行内部和外部机制完善的思路,以供中国银行业放开后制定相关的经营作参考。本文在以后研究中有待于进一步深入讨论的方面有: 首先,由于数据收集的困难和时间跨度的限制,使得实证模型在检验中可能出现一些不准确的地方,因而本文将时间截面数据进行融合来分析影响整个中国商业银行业的盈利能力因素,具有一定的局限性。其次,对于模型参数经济意义的分析需要进一步深入考究。但通过回归分析考察具体指标对盈利能力的影响,将使我们更能客观了解中国商业银行盈利的现状,为提高我国商业银行盈利水平,增强中国商业银行的竞争力提供有价值的信息。因此这不失为一种很好的思路和尝试。
[Abstract]:The profitability of commercial banks is one of the most important factors in the development and survival of commercial banks . As a result , commercial banks in China tend to focus on the first priority of banking operations . However , China ' s four state - owned commercial banks tend to focus on the expansion of the scale in the past , but ignore the most important profit - for - profit indicators of the bank . According to the ranking of the international authority , China ' s four state - owned commercial banks have been ranked among 600 names . In the research of China ' s state - owned banks , some foreign consulting firms have also found that China ' s state - owned commercial banks have great problems in safety and efficiency .

With the development of science and technology and the rapid development of the network , globalization has become the irresistible trend of the world financial development . In this context , China ' s banking industry is facing enormous challenges , especially after China joins the World Trade Organization .

Because of the bank ' s " commodity " is the currency , and most of the operating funds come from the deposits and other liabilities of the public , the safety of the bank operation has a great influence on the credit system of the whole society .

At present , the transformation of the four state - owned banks to the real commercial banks has caused the increasing attention to the profitability of the commercial banks . There are two main ways to analyze the profitability of the commercial banks . The second thought is to analyze the profitability of the banks from the side by analyzing other factors such as bank efficiency and asset status .

In the structure arrangement of the thesis , this paper is divided into the following five chapters :

The first chapter introduces the background , significance , literature review , main contents and innovation points of this thesis .

The second chapter analyzes the influencing factors of the profitability of commercial banks in China . The factors that influence the profitability of commercial banks are summarized as the factors of the commercial banks and the external macro - economic environment factors . The external factors are summarized into five aspects : asset quality , capital adequacy , liquidity condition , operation efficiency and bank scale .

The third chapter introduces the empirical model of bank profitability . By using the panel data model , the paper makes an empirical analysis of the financial indexes of 14 major commercial banks from 1999 to 2005 . In this model , the definition and analysis of the panel data are introduced . In this model , firstly , the data indexes are classified according to the state - owned commercial banks and the common stock commercial banks , then the data is fused and analyzed , and a hypothesis test is put forward to verify the existence of consistency between the state - owned commercial banks and the joint - stock commercial banks .

In chapter 4 , the present situation of profitability of China ' s state - owned commercial banks is studied by means of empirical method . The article will influence commercial banks ' profit - making factors into two categories : asset return rate , net loan balance , total asset ratio ( NL / TA ) , total assets ratio ( LLRs / TA ) , total assets ratio ( EQ / TA ) , total asset ratio ( EQ / TA ) , total assets ( TA ) , gross domestic product ( GDP ) , inflation rate ( INFLATION ) and total asset specific gravity ( GDP / TA ) .

On the basis of analyzing the internal factors that influence the profitability of commercial banks , this paper puts forward some measures to improve the profitability of commercial banks in China .

On the basis of summarizing and summarizing the internal and external factors that influence the profitability of commercial banks , this paper analyzes the factors of influencing the profitability of commercial banks by using the model of measurement , analyzes the weight of each index in influencing the profitability of commercial banks , and tries to find out ways to improve the profitability of commercial banks in China .

In the study , there are several characteristics :

First , the paper discusses the profitability of commercial banks in China for the first time from the angle of theory and demonstration .

Second , this paper constructs the index system which affects the profitability of commercial banks , and filters out ten related indicators to examine the profitability of commercial banks , and analyzes the causes of the low profitability of state - owned commercial banks .

Third , this paper uses the panel data model , firstly , combines the data of the state - owned commercial banks and the stock - stock commercial banks , and then divides the commercial banks into four state - owned commercial banks and the joint - stock commercial banks according to the assets scale , and analyzes the impact of the factors on the profitability of the state - owned commercial banks and the stock - stock commercial banks , and finally investigates the impact of the factors on the profitability of the commercial banks . This is a new breakthrough in the empirical method .

Fourthly , the paper discusses the factors of profitability of China ' s commercial banks , and puts forward some suggestions on how to improve the profitability of commercial banks in China .

The following aspects of this paper are to be further discussed in the future :

First of all , due to the difficulty of data collection and the limitation of time span , the empirical model may have some inaccuracies in the inspection , so this paper combines the time - section data to analyze the factors that affect the profitability of the whole Chinese commercial bank industry , and has some limitations . Secondly , the analysis of the economic significance of the model parameters needs to be further investigated .

However , by analyzing the impact of the specific index on profitability by regression analysis , we can make an objective understanding of the current situation of the profitability of commercial banks in China , and provide valuable information for improving the profitability of our commercial banks and enhancing the competitiveness of China ' s commercial banks . Therefore , this is a good idea and an attempt .
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2007
【分类号】：F832.2;F224

【引证文献】