山东省人口预测与分析

发布时间：2018-07-12 21:09

本文选题：人口预测 + 多元统计分析　；参考：《山东师范大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：山东省在进入21世纪以后,已经开始逐渐向人口老龄化社会迈进了。人口问题对我省经济影响巨大,从而引起许多学者的重视。人口的增加不仅对社会有阻碍作用,也会有促进作用。因此,人口问题长期以来都是世界上各个国家普遍关注的热点问题。本文的数据是来自山东省统计年鉴,在人口分析方面首先利用多元统计分析方法对数据进行线性回归拟合,其次利用因子分析方法对原变量进行降维。这样就能直观的分析影响人口增长的因素并得出结果。在人口预测方面,我们利用GM(7)1,1(8)模型进行预测山东省中长期的人口数量,检验模型的精度,选择精度较高的模型去预测未来山东省人口数量。这里选择的灰色预测模型误差比较小,拟合效果较好。根据山东省人口增长的幅度,并结合因子分析我们得出的结果,综合给出一些政策性的解决办法。
[Abstract]:After entering twenty-first Century, Shandong province has begun to move towards the population aging society gradually. Population problem has great influence on the economy of our province, which has aroused the attention of many scholars. The increase of population is not only a hindrance to the society, but also a promoting effect. Therefore, the population problem has long been a universal concern in all countries in the world. The data of this paper are from the statistical yearbook of Shandong province. In the field of population analysis, the data is fitted by linear regression with multivariate statistical analysis. Secondly, the factor analysis method is used to reduce the dimension of the original variables. In this way, the factors that affect the population growth can be analyzed and the results are obtained. We use GM (7) 1,1 (8) model to predict the middle and long term population of Shandong Province, test the precision of the model and select the model with high precision to predict the population of Shandong province in the future. The grey prediction model selected here is relatively small and the fitting effect is better. According to the population growth range of Shandong Province, we have combined factors to analyze the results. As a result, some policy solutions are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：山东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：C924.2

【参考文献】