人口老龄化影响产业结构调整的统计研究
发布时间：2018-07-16 17:22
【摘要】：20世纪90年代以后,全国生育水平持续下降,老年人口比重继续保持稳步上升,2000年中国老年人口比重达到6.96%,中国进入老龄化社会。2014年,我国60岁及以上的老年人口数量达2.12亿人,占全国总人口比重的15.5%,中国已成为世界上老年人口总量最多的国家。人作为社会生产和社会需求的最终主体,人口结构的变化,必然导致需求结构变化,进而影响产业结构调整。产业结构是衡量一国经济发展的标准之一,合理的产业结构调整能够促进一国经济的发展,但若产业结构调整与经济调整不协调,则会严重阻碍经济发展的步伐。基于上述背景,本文拟研究人口老龄化对产业结构调整的影响,为产业结构调整提供参考建议。本文的研究主要包括五个部分:一是通过统计描述对我国人口老龄化及产业结构现状进行详细分析;二是基于柯布-道格拉斯(CD)非齐次需求效应函数推导证明人口老龄化对产业结构调整的影响途径,探讨人口老龄化影响产业结构的内在机制;三是运用灰关联分析方法研究人口老龄化与三次产业及产业结构测度指标间的关联度;四是运用SYS-GMM估计动态分析我国人口老龄化对产业结构调整的具体影响;五是总结前文研究成果,并给出相应的政策建议。在上述研究的基础上本文得出以下主要结论:第一,我国人口老龄化虽然起步晚但发展迅速,且区域间存在较大差异,经济发达地区最早进入人口老龄化。第二,人口老龄化与产业结构调整间存在必然联系,且人口老龄化与产业结构氋级化间的关联度要高于人口老龄化与产业结构合理化间的关联度。第三,通过对我国近20年老龄化与产业结构的研究发现:人口老龄化不仅能够促进产业结构高级化,对产业结构合理化也存在着积极影响,但区域间存在一定差异。
[Abstract]:Since the 1990s, the national fertility level has continued to decline, and the proportion of the elderly population has continued to rise steadily. In 2000, the proportion of China's elderly population reached 6.96, and China entered an aging society. In 2014, The number of old people aged 60 and above in China reaches 212 million, accounting for 15.5percent of the total population in China. China has become the country with the largest number of elderly people in the world. As the final subject of social production and social demand, the change of population structure will inevitably lead to the change of demand structure, and then affect the adjustment of industrial structure. Industrial structure is one of the standards to measure the economic development of a country. Reasonable industrial structure adjustment can promote the economic development of a country, but if the adjustment of industrial structure and economic adjustment is not coordinated, it will seriously hinder the pace of economic development. Based on the above background, this paper intends to study the effect of population aging on industrial structure adjustment, and provide some suggestions for industrial structure adjustment. The research of this paper mainly includes five parts: first, the current situation of aging population and industrial structure in China is analyzed in detail through statistical description; Secondly, based on the derivation of the inhomogeneous demand effect function of Cobb-Douglas (CD), the influence of population aging on the adjustment of industrial structure is proved, and the internal mechanism of the effect of population aging on industrial structure is discussed. The third is to use the grey correlation analysis method to study the correlation degree between the aging of population and the measurement index of three industries and industrial structure, the fourth is to use SYS-GMM estimation to dynamically analyze the specific impact of the aging population on the adjustment of industrial structure in China. The fifth is to summarize the previous research results and give corresponding policy recommendations. On the basis of the above research, this paper draws the following main conclusions: first, although the population aging in China started late, it has developed rapidly, and there are great differences between regions, and the economically developed regions are the first to enter the aging population. Secondly, there is an inevitable relationship between population aging and industrial structure adjustment, and the correlation degree between population aging and industrial structure is higher than that between population aging and industrial structure rationalization. Thirdly, through the research on the aging and industrial structure of China in the past 20 years, it is found that the aging of the population can not only promote the upgrading of industrial structure, but also have a positive impact on the rationalization of industrial structure, but there are some differences between regions.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：C924.24;F121.3
本文编号：2127083
[Abstract]:Since the 1990s, the national fertility level has continued to decline, and the proportion of the elderly population has continued to rise steadily. In 2000, the proportion of China's elderly population reached 6.96, and China entered an aging society. In 2014, The number of old people aged 60 and above in China reaches 212 million, accounting for 15.5percent of the total population in China. China has become the country with the largest number of elderly people in the world. As the final subject of social production and social demand, the change of population structure will inevitably lead to the change of demand structure, and then affect the adjustment of industrial structure. Industrial structure is one of the standards to measure the economic development of a country. Reasonable industrial structure adjustment can promote the economic development of a country, but if the adjustment of industrial structure and economic adjustment is not coordinated, it will seriously hinder the pace of economic development. Based on the above background, this paper intends to study the effect of population aging on industrial structure adjustment, and provide some suggestions for industrial structure adjustment. The research of this paper mainly includes five parts: first, the current situation of aging population and industrial structure in China is analyzed in detail through statistical description; Secondly, based on the derivation of the inhomogeneous demand effect function of Cobb-Douglas (CD), the influence of population aging on the adjustment of industrial structure is proved, and the internal mechanism of the effect of population aging on industrial structure is discussed. The third is to use the grey correlation analysis method to study the correlation degree between the aging of population and the measurement index of three industries and industrial structure, the fourth is to use SYS-GMM estimation to dynamically analyze the specific impact of the aging population on the adjustment of industrial structure in China. The fifth is to summarize the previous research results and give corresponding policy recommendations. On the basis of the above research, this paper draws the following main conclusions: first, although the population aging in China started late, it has developed rapidly, and there are great differences between regions, and the economically developed regions are the first to enter the aging population. Secondly, there is an inevitable relationship between population aging and industrial structure adjustment, and the correlation degree between population aging and industrial structure is higher than that between population aging and industrial structure rationalization. Thirdly, through the research on the aging and industrial structure of China in the past 20 years, it is found that the aging of the population can not only promote the upgrading of industrial structure, but also have a positive impact on the rationalization of industrial structure, but there are some differences between regions.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：C924.24;F121.3
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