湖南农业干旱灾害重灾年份预测及应用

发布时间：2018-07-17 00:36

【摘要】：干旱是一个全球性的问题,具有持续时间长、发生频率高、分布地域广等特点。我国也是一个干旱重灾国,随着国民经济的快速发展,干旱缺水问题日益凸显,不仅对农业生产造成巨大损失,也对人们生活带来巨大影响,严重影响着国民经济的发展和社会的安定。在与农业干旱灾害的长期斗争实践中,人们逐渐认识到旱灾是客观存在不可避免的,只有通过科学有效的风险管理,尽力降低或分散干旱风险,才能将干旱损失降低到最低水平。因此,有必要对干旱进行科学的分析和预测,为农业防灾减灾提供科学依据。湖南是我国的产粮大省,也是我国重要的粮棉油生产基地,但同时,湖南也是我国南方各省中干旱最为严重的省份之一。本文主要运用管理学、计量经济学、统计学及灾害风险管理等理论知识,采用文献分析法、实证分析法、定性与定量分析相结合的方法,对湖南省农业干旱灾害风险进行了较为深入的研究。首先,借鉴已有研究成果,对干旱灾害与农业干旱灾害等相关概念进行了界定;接着,探析了湖南干旱灾害的时空分布、社会经济影响以及形成机理。湖南干旱灾害比较严重主要原因在于湖南特殊的气候和地理条件,湖南地处亚热带季风湿润气候区,季风进退的时间和强度各年不一,地形上山川交错、地表复杂,因此,致使湖南各地区降水时空分布不均,湖南农业在享有比较丰沛的雨水量的同时也饱受季节性干旱灾害之苦;然后,从湖南农业干旱灾害的内在与外在生成机制出发,进一步剖析其影响因素,并将湖南农业干旱灾害的影响因素概括为自然因素、人类活动和经济发展因素三大类。在统计分析1978——2014年36年间湖南农业旱灾受灾与成灾面积等相关数据的基础上,探寻了湖南农业干旱灾害的时间分布规律,并运用灰色系统理论建模方法,采用农作物受灾异常指数和成灾异常指数作为评价农业旱情的指标,借助MATLAB软件,建立了旱灾重灾年份的灰色灾变GM(1,1)预测模型,依据模型对未来15年湖南省农业干旱重灾年份进行了预测;最后,结合上述分析结果,从干旱灾害影响因素出发,根据我省农业干旱灾害实际情况,提出主要从提高政府组织协调能力、提高监测预警能力、加强农田水利工程建设、优化用水结构、调整农作物种植结构、加强节水宣传教育等方面提出了湖南农业干旱灾害防灾减灾的对策建议。以期为我省科学有效地防旱抗旱和提高抗旱应急管理能力、减少灾害损失、稳定粮食产量、保障农民收入提供较为科学的行之有效的决策依据。
[Abstract]:Drought is a global problem with long duration, high frequency and wide distribution. China is also a drought-stricken country. With the rapid development of the national economy, the problem of drought and water shortage is becoming increasingly prominent, which not only causes huge losses to agricultural production, but also has a huge impact on people's lives. Seriously affect the development of the national economy and social stability. In the long struggle against agricultural drought, people have come to realize that drought is inevitable and only through scientific and effective risk management to reduce or disperse drought risk. To minimize drought losses. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out scientific analysis and prediction of drought to provide scientific basis for agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation. Hunan is a big grain producing province and an important production base of grain, cotton and oil in China. However, Hunan is also one of the most arid provinces in the southern provinces of China. This paper mainly uses the theories of management, econometrics, statistics and disaster risk management, and adopts the methods of literature analysis, empirical analysis, qualitative and quantitative analysis. The risk of agricultural drought disaster in Hunan Province is studied deeply. Firstly, the concepts of drought disaster and agricultural drought disaster are defined based on the existing research results, and then, the spatio-temporal distribution, social and economic impact and formation mechanism of drought disaster in Hunan are analyzed. The main reason for the severe drought disasters in Hunan lies in the special climatic and geographical conditions of Hunan. Hunan is located in the subtropical monsoon humid climate area. The time and intensity of the monsoon advance and retreat vary from year to year, the terrain is crisscrossed by mountains and rivers, and the surface is complex, so, As a result of the uneven spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation in various regions of Hunan, Hunan agriculture suffers from seasonal drought disasters while enjoying abundant rainfall; then, from the internal and external generation mechanism of agricultural drought disasters in Hunan, The influencing factors of agricultural drought disaster in Hunan are summarized into three categories: natural factors, human activities and economic development factors. Based on the statistical analysis of the related data of agricultural drought disaster and disaster area in Hunan Province from 1978 to 2014, the temporal distribution of agricultural drought disaster in Hunan Province is explored, and the grey system theory is used to model the drought disaster in Hunan Province. With the help of MATLAB software, the grey disaster GM (1 / 1) prediction model of severe drought year is established by using crop disaster anomaly index and disaster formation anomaly index as indicators to evaluate agricultural drought. Based on the model, the severe agricultural drought years in Hunan Province in the next 15 years are predicted. Finally, based on the above analysis results, according to the actual situation of agricultural drought disasters in Hunan Province, the factors affecting drought disasters are analyzed. It is put forward that improving the ability of government organization and coordination, improving the ability of monitoring and early warning, strengthening the construction of irrigation and water conservancy engineering, optimizing the structure of water use, adjusting the structure of crop planting, The countermeasures and suggestions for preventing and reducing agricultural drought disaster in Hunan Province are put forward in the aspects of water saving propaganda and education. It is expected to provide a scientific and effective decision basis for preventing drought and drought effectively and improving the ability of drought and emergency management, reducing disaster losses, stabilizing grain production, and ensuring farmers' income in our province.
【学位授予单位】：湖南科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：D632.5;F327

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