我国外汇占款、国内信贷对货币供应量影响研究

发布时间：2018-07-26 16:23

【摘要】：2016年是我国的“十三五规划”的开局之年,我国从外向型经济向内需消费型经济发展已经步入深水区,未来五年(2016-2020年)将会是经济发展方式转型的关键五年。2016年6月末,我国外汇储备规模为32052亿美元,从2014年6月至此,历时24个月共计下降7881亿美元。未来,外汇储备下降将会成为我国经济的新常态。而在外汇储备减少的背景下我国国内信贷增长一路高涨,央行一方面通过宽松的货币政策扩大新增贷款规模,另一方面通过MLF、SLO等新创设的再贷款手段主动提供流动性支持。因此研究外汇占款、国内信贷对货币供应量的影响和作用,进而说明我国货币政策的自主性和货币供应的主动性问题具有重大意义。本文首先评述了外汇占款、国内信贷与货币供应量的相关研究文献,在研究比较国内外文献时,发现研究不足,按照提出问题、分析问题、解决问题的研究思路,梳理本文的研究内容和逻辑框架。按照上述研究方式,第二章从银行体系资产负债表出发解释外汇占款、国内信贷与货币供应量的关系,通过分析国内信贷、外汇占款对货币供应量的作用机制,得出外汇占款和国内信贷对货币供应量都有扩充作用。基于上述作用机制,第三章以外汇占款、国内信贷与货币供应量的现状为出发点,对外汇占款、国内信贷和货币供应量的变化特点进行描述性分析,分析得出我国外汇占款自2014年6月份以后,外汇占款大幅度下降,至使我国货币政策自主性增强。第四章通过计量分析方法,选取2008年1月份到2016年6月份为样本,采用VEC模型以外汇占款波动的前后为时间点进行模型估计,最后基于以上对外汇占款、国内信贷规模和货币供应量之间关系的分析,为了增强货币政策的自主性和我国货币供应的主动性,提出研究结论和几点对策建议。本文从理论与实证两个方面分析经济发展模式转轨和外汇占款减少的新时期下,我国外汇占款、国内信贷的变动对货币供应量的变动的影响,突破了以往研究只单独考察外汇占款对货币供应量的影响或国内信贷对货币供应量的影响的局限,通过计量方法分析外汇占款、国内信贷对货币供应量的共同作用,建立向量误差修正(VEC)模型,还加入了相应的脉冲响应函数和格兰杰因果关系分析。在VEC模型的实证部分按整体2008年1月到2016年6月、2008年1月到2014年6月和2014年7月到2016年6月三个时间区段分为三个实证模型,进一步说明在不同时间区段外汇占款和国内信贷的变动对货币供应量的影响和冲击,以及从长期看,我国外汇占款减少和国内信贷扩张对解释货币供应量变动的贡献度,作为提出研究结论和对策建议的实证依据。通过实证可以看出,2014年上半年以前外汇占款是货币供应量的主要驱动力,而到2014年下半年以后国内信贷对货币供应量的贡献度逐渐增长。综合实证分析和描述性分析得出,外汇占款减少提高货币政策自主性,相对可控的国内信贷增强货币供应的主动性。
[Abstract]:2016 is the opening year of China's "13th Five-Year plan". China has entered a deep water area from the export-oriented economy to domestic demand consumption economy. The next five years (2016-2020 years) will be the key to the transformation of the economic development mode in five years.2016 6 months. China's foreign exchange reserve regulation is 32052 billion US dollars, from June 2014 to 24 months. In the future, the decline of foreign exchange reserves will become a new normal in China's economy. In the context of the reduction of foreign exchange reserves, China's domestic credit growth is rising, the central bank, on the one hand, expands the new loan scale through loose monetary policy, on the other hand, the new loan means such as MLF, SLO and other newly created reloan means offer the active supply of the flow. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the influence and role of domestic credit on the monetary supply and the initiative of monetary supply in China. This paper first reviews the related literatures on foreign exchange occupied, domestic credit and money supply, and compares the domestic and foreign literature. On the basis of the above research methods, the second chapter explains the relationship between the foreign exchange and the relationship between the domestic credit and the money supply, and through the analysis of the domestic credit and the foreign exchange for the goods. On the basis of the above action mechanism, the third chapter is based on the current situation of foreign exchange occupied and domestic credit and money supply, and gives a descriptive analysis of the change characteristics of foreign exchange and domestic credit and money supply. Foreign exchange occupied funds since June 2014, the amount of foreign exchange accounts for a substantial decline, to enhance the autonomy of China's monetary policy. The fourth chapter, through the quantitative analysis method, selected from January to June 2016 in 2008 as the sample, using the VEC model before and after the fluctuation of foreign exchange for the time point of the model estimate, finally based on the above foreign exchange payment, In order to enhance the autonomy of the monetary policy and the initiative of China's money supply, the analysis of the relationship between the scale of domestic credit and the supply of money is put forward and several countermeasures and suggestions are put forward. This paper analyzes the new period of the transition of economic development mode and the reduction of foreign exchange Occupied Funds in the two aspects of theory and demonstration. The influence of the change of loan on the change of money supply has broken through the previous study, which only examined the influence of the foreign exchange occupied money on the money supply and the influence of domestic credit on the money supply. Through the measurement method, the paper analyzed the foreign currency occupation, the common effect of domestic credit on the money supply, and the establishment of the vector error correction (VEC) model. The corresponding impulse response function and Grainger causality analysis are added. The empirical part of the VEC model is divided into three empirical models according to the overall January 2008 to June 2016, January 2008 to June 2014 and July 2014 to June 2016, which further illustrates the change of foreign exchange accounts in different periods and the changes in domestic credit. The influence and impact on the money supply and the contribution of the reduction of foreign exchange and the expansion of domestic credit to the explanation of the change of money supply in the long term, as an empirical basis for putting forward the conclusions and Countermeasures of the money supply. Through the empirical study, it can be seen that the foreign exchange occupied by the foreign exchange was the main driving force of the money supply before the first half of 2014. After the second half of 2014, the contribution of domestic credit to the money supply increased gradually. Comprehensive empirical analysis and descriptive analysis showed that the reduction of foreign exchange accounts to improve the autonomy of monetary policy, and the relatively controllable domestic credit to enhance the initiative of the money supply.
【学位授予单位】：安徽财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F832.6;F832.4;F822.2

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