欧盟新一轮量化宽松对我国未来出口影响的统计分析

发布时间：2018-07-26 20:28

【摘要】：自2008年以来,欧盟经济随着经济危机的到来也陷入了萧条的困境,自此,欧盟开始实施小规模量化宽松政策,但欧洲经济增速缓慢的问题并没有得到根本解决。直至2014年12月,欧元区国家通货膨胀率甚至达到了负0.2%,让欧盟的货币当局认识到实施量化宽松的紧迫性。欧洲央行Mario Draghi2015年1月22宣布实施从3月开始实施量化宽松货币政策,正式拉开了欧盟量化宽松的序幕。欧盟新一轮量化宽松实施以来,欧洲央行一直下调基准利率水平,从2015年5月至今,欧元区都处于负利率时代,通货膨胀率也有小幅波动,同时也使得失业率不断下降。欧盟连续5年成为我国最重要的出口贸易伙伴,而我国出口贸易一直作为我国主要的经济增长点,此次欧盟实施量化宽松势必会通过各种渠道对我国出口产生一定影响,需要我们给予足够的关注。文章采用2005年1月-2015年12月的月度数据,构造全球向量自回归模型来分析欧盟新一轮量化宽松对我国出口的影响,选取国别变量:工业生产指数(表示实际产出水平)、居民消费价格指数(表示通货膨胀水平)、实际汇率、短期名义利率、货币供应量、大宗商品价格指数、出口额,选取的国际变量有:石油价格、原材料价格、国际大宗商品价格。结果显示:欧盟量化宽松通过各种渠道对我国出口的影响存在差异,总体上会有利于我国未来出口的增加;此外,实证结果还发现量化宽松对不同区域和国家的影响也各有侧重。在此基础上,文章提出了相应的政策建议,为我国未来出口变动提供借鉴。
[Abstract]:Since 2008, the EU economy has also been in recession with the onset of the economic crisis. Since then, the European Union has started to implement small-scale quantitative easing, but the slow growth rate of the European economy has not been fundamentally resolved. By December 2014, inflation in the euro zone had even reached minus 0.2, making the European Union's monetary authorities aware of the urgency of quantitative easing. The European Central Bank (ECB), the European Central Bank (Mario Draghi2015), officially kicked off the European Union's quantitative easing (QE) policy on January 22 by announcing its quantitative easing policy, which began in March. The European Central Bank has been cutting benchmark interest rates since the new round of quantitative easing in the European Union. Since May 2015, the euro zone has been in the era of negative interest rates, inflation has fluctuated slightly, and unemployment has been falling. For five consecutive years, the European Union has become China's most important export trade partner, and China's export trade has always been the main economic growth point of our country. This time, the implementation of quantitative easing by the EU will certainly have a certain impact on China's exports through various channels. We need enough attention. Based on the monthly data from January 2005 to December 2015, this paper constructs a global vector autoregressive model to analyze the impact of the new round of quantitative easing on China's exports. Selected country variables: industrial production index (representing real output level), consumer price index (representing inflation level), real exchange rate, short-term nominal interest rate, money supply, commodity price index, export volume, Selected international variables are: oil prices, raw materials prices, international commodity prices. The results show that there are differences in the impact of quantitative easing on China's exports through various channels, which in general will be conducive to the increase of China's exports in the future. The empirical results also found that quantitative easing has different impacts on different regions and countries. On this basis, the article puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations to provide reference for China's future export changes.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F821.0;F752.62

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