基于贝叶斯网络的接触网运行可靠性评估

发布时间：2018-08-04 15:04

【摘要】：作为电气化铁路的核心环节,接触网承担着向电力机车提供持续电能的重要任务,是机车唯一的直接动力来源,其可靠性不仅影响到电力牵引优越性的充分发挥,而且直接关系到列车运行的稳定与安全。对接触网的可靠性进行研究与分析评估对于保障列车安全运行、提高电气化铁路运行质量和经济效益等都具有重要意义。本文根据实际调研得到的接触网故障资料,采用贝叶斯网络方法对接触网进行了可靠性分析与评估。首先,通过对于故障资料的统计与分析,得到了接触网主要零部件的可靠性指标和接触网的故障树模型。然后在此基础上建立了接触网系统的贝叶斯网络模型,并采用精确推理算法对系统可靠性进行了推理分析,计算得到了在役接触网系统的失效概率,诊断得到了影响接触网系统可靠性的薄弱环节,并计算得到了接触网系统的可靠性指标。其次利用贝叶斯网络方法对于前面系统分析中得到的处于薄弱环节的关键零部件进行了可靠性分析评估,得到了这些零部件的故障概率及影响其可靠性的主要故障因素。同时对上述零部件的故障情况按月份进行了统计分析,研究了故障的月份(季节)特点。接着根据以上分析结果和调研见闻,对影响零部件可靠性的主要故障因素及其防治进行了阐述分析。根据之前的研究,给出了提高接触网可靠性的思路与建议。最后研究了接触网系统的可靠性分配。在考虑了影响系统可靠性分配的多种因素下,采用模糊综合评判法对接触网系统进行了的可靠性分配;利用贝叶斯网络反向推理中条件失效概率能够反映零部件对系统可靠性影响的特点,将贝叶斯网络方法应用到可靠性分配中,以接触悬挂子系统为例,实现了其零部件的可靠性分配。
[Abstract]:As the core link of electrified railway, the catenary undertakes the important task of providing continuous electric energy to the electric locomotive, and is the only direct power source of the locomotive. Its reliability not only affects the full play of the superiority of electric traction. And it is directly related to the stability and safety of train operation. It is of great significance to study and evaluate the reliability of catenary for ensuring the safe operation of trains, improving the quality of electrified railway operation and economic benefits. In this paper, the reliability of catenary is analyzed and evaluated by using Bayesian network method according to the fault data of catenary. Firstly, the reliability index of the main parts of catenary and the fault tree model of the catenary are obtained through the statistics and analysis of the fault data. Then, the Bayesian network model of the catenary system is established, and the reliability of the system is analyzed by using the exact reasoning algorithm, and the failure probability of the in-service catenary system is calculated. The weak links affecting the reliability of the catenary system are obtained and the reliability index of the catenary system is calculated. Secondly, the Bayesian network method is used to evaluate the reliability of the key parts which are in the weak link in the previous system analysis, and the failure probability of these parts and the main fault factors affecting their reliability are obtained. At the same time, the fault situation of the above parts is analyzed by month, and the characteristics of fault month (season) are studied. Then, according to the above analysis results and investigation, the main fault factors affecting the reliability of parts and their prevention and treatment are analyzed. According to the previous research, the ideas and suggestions for improving the reliability of catenary are given. Finally, the reliability distribution of catenary system is studied. Under the consideration of many factors affecting the reliability distribution of the system, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to assign the reliability of the catenary system. The conditional failure probability in Bayesian network reverse reasoning can reflect the influence of components on the reliability of the system. The Bayesian network method is applied to the reliability distribution, and the contact suspension subsystem is taken as an example. The reliability distribution of its parts is realized.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U225

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