中国就业弹性的实证分析及未来的政策选择
发布时间：2018-08-24 14:32
【摘要】：本文主要探究的是宏观经济政策四大目标中的两大目标即经济增长与充分就业,而奥肯定律是研究这二者之间关系的重要定律,它指出随着经济发展速度加快失业率将降低,反之经济发展变缓失业率将上升。我们可以从中推导出经济增长与就业具有正相关关系,即经济高速增长会促进就业的增加。但是,20世纪90年代以来,我国经济发展速度取得了惊人的成绩,与此同时在促进就业方面带来就业的增加量却没有取得令人满意的效果,就业形势比较严峻。就业是关系国计民生的大事,关系着广大人民群众的切身利益以及全面建设小康社会的宏伟目标。我们在发展经济的同时必须注重就业问题,发展经济与改善就业同时抓也与建设社会主义和谐社会这一目标相一致。为了探究发展经济能否带来就业量的增加,以就业弹性为媒介探究二者之间的关系。就业弹性,顾名思义,即指经济增长每变化一个百分比所带来就业量变化的百分比,它是体现经济与就业协调发展的关键性指标。通过对我国就业弹性进行测算,我国就业弹性总体水平偏低,与发达国家相比,就业弹性还存在很大的提升空间,也表明我国经济的飞速增长并没有带来就业状况的改善,这也与我国的过度追求经济增长而忽视就业增加的政绩考核标准有关,为了找出我国经济在90年代以来呈现出"高增长低就业"的这种现象背后的深层次原因,文章首先介绍经济增长理论、就业相关理论及两者之间关系的相关理论;在理论基础上对我国经济增长与就业二者之间的关系进行实证分析,用定义法、数学模型分别测算了我国就业弹性,并剖析两种方法的利弊,并且按不同时间段和不同产业分别进行回归分析,研究不同发展阶段和不同产业对就业弹性的影响;最后进行就业影响因素其它维度的实证分析,在相关理论及国内著名学者的研究基础上列出对就业弹性有影响的相关因素为人均收入水平、资源禀赋、资本存量、产业结构、技术进步及经济体制,在选择这些因素时考虑了数据的易获得性、避免多重共线性及尽可能全面性,建立计量模型进行实证分析,分析的结果表明经济体制中投资结构即全社会固定资产投资完成额中非国有经济占比对就业弹性的影响最显著,其次是资本要素价格,再次是人均收入水平,而劳动力价格与就业弹性成反方向变动,就业随着劳动力价格的上升而减少,呈现资本替代劳动的现象。技术进步与资本存量的回归系数虽没有通过检验,可能是因为它们对就业存在增加与减少两个相反作用的效应,并不能表示它对就业弹性就没有影响,不同时期发挥主要作用的效应不同,因此为提高就业弹性,这两个因素也不容忽视。此外,产业结构的回归系数虽没有通过显著性检验,但通过不同产业的回归分析第三产业的就业弹性远大于第一二产业,因此大力发展服务业与高新技术产业也是拉动就业、提高就业弹性的重要因素。在以上研究基础上针对我国当前不容乐观的就业形势提出提高就业弹性缓解就业压力的政策建议有保证经济发展,促进充分就业;挖掘资源禀赋优势,实现协调互动;优化投资结构,促进投资主体多元化;促进产业结构转型,重视第三产业发展;大力促进科技创新,转变经济发展方式;深化经济体制改革,为扩大就业提供制度保障。
[Abstract]:This paper mainly explores two of the four major objectives of macroeconomic policy, namely, economic growth and full employment, and the Okun's law is an important law to study the relationship between the two. It points out that the unemployment rate will decrease with the acceleration of economic development, and vice versa, the unemployment rate will rise with the slowing down of economic development. There is a positive correlation between growth and employment, that is, high-speed economic growth will promote the increase of employment. However, since the 1990s, China's economic development has made astonishing achievements, and at the same time in promoting employment has not achieved satisfactory results, the employment situation is grim. The important matter of people's livelihood concerns the vital interests of the broad masses of the people and the grand goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way.While developing the economy, we must pay attention to the problem of employment.While developing the economy and improving employment, it is also consistent with the goal of building a harmonious socialist society. Employment elasticity, as the name implies, refers to the percentage of employment changes brought about by each change in economic growth. It is a key indicator to reflect the coordinated development of economy and employment. Compared with developed countries, employment elasticity still has a lot of room for improvement. It also shows that China's rapid economic growth has not brought about an improvement in the employment situation. This is also related to China's excessive pursuit of economic growth and neglect of employment growth performance evaluation standards, in order to find out that China's economy has shown "high growth and low growth" since the 1990s. This paper first introduces the economic growth theory, the employment related theory and the related theory between the two; on the basis of the theoretical analysis of the relationship between economic growth and employment in China, using the definition method, the mathematical model to calculate the employment elasticity of China, and analyzes the two. The pros and cons of this method are analyzed according to different periods of time and different industries, and the effects of different stages of development and different industries on employment elasticity are studied. Finally, the empirical analysis of other dimensions of employment influencing factors is carried out. Based on the relevant theories and the research of famous domestic scholars, the correlations that affect employment elasticity are listed. Factors are income per capita, resource endowment, capital stock, industrial structure, technological progress and economic system. When choosing these factors, we consider the accessibility of data, avoid multi-collinearity and try to be as comprehensive as possible, and establish an econometric model for empirical analysis. The proportion of non-state-owned economy has the most significant effect on the employment elasticity in the output investment, followed by the price of capital factors, and then the level of per capita income. The price of labor and the elasticity of employment change in the opposite direction. Employment decreases with the increase of labor price, showing the phenomenon of capital replacing labor. Although the regression coefficients have not passed the test, it may be because they have two opposite effects on employment: increase and decrease. It does not mean that they have no effect on employment elasticity. The main effects of different periods are different. Therefore, in order to improve employment elasticity, the regression coefficients of industrial structure can not be ignored. Although it has not passed the significant test, the employment elasticity of the tertiary industry is far greater than that of the primary and secondary industries through regression analysis of different industries. Therefore, vigorously developing service industry and high-tech industry is also an important factor to promote employment and improve employment elasticity. The policy suggestions of high employment elasticity to alleviate employment pressure include ensuring economic development and promoting full employment; tapping resource endowment advantages and realizing coordinated interaction; optimizing investment structure and promoting diversification of investment subjects; promoting industrial restructuring and attaching importance to the development of tertiary industry; vigorously promoting scientific and technological innovation and transforming the mode of economic development; deepening economic system. Reform provides institutional guarantee for expanding employment.
【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F249.20
本文编号：2201107
[Abstract]:This paper mainly explores two of the four major objectives of macroeconomic policy, namely, economic growth and full employment, and the Okun's law is an important law to study the relationship between the two. It points out that the unemployment rate will decrease with the acceleration of economic development, and vice versa, the unemployment rate will rise with the slowing down of economic development. There is a positive correlation between growth and employment, that is, high-speed economic growth will promote the increase of employment. However, since the 1990s, China's economic development has made astonishing achievements, and at the same time in promoting employment has not achieved satisfactory results, the employment situation is grim. The important matter of people's livelihood concerns the vital interests of the broad masses of the people and the grand goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way.While developing the economy, we must pay attention to the problem of employment.While developing the economy and improving employment, it is also consistent with the goal of building a harmonious socialist society. Employment elasticity, as the name implies, refers to the percentage of employment changes brought about by each change in economic growth. It is a key indicator to reflect the coordinated development of economy and employment. Compared with developed countries, employment elasticity still has a lot of room for improvement. It also shows that China's rapid economic growth has not brought about an improvement in the employment situation. This is also related to China's excessive pursuit of economic growth and neglect of employment growth performance evaluation standards, in order to find out that China's economy has shown "high growth and low growth" since the 1990s. This paper first introduces the economic growth theory, the employment related theory and the related theory between the two; on the basis of the theoretical analysis of the relationship between economic growth and employment in China, using the definition method, the mathematical model to calculate the employment elasticity of China, and analyzes the two. The pros and cons of this method are analyzed according to different periods of time and different industries, and the effects of different stages of development and different industries on employment elasticity are studied. Finally, the empirical analysis of other dimensions of employment influencing factors is carried out. Based on the relevant theories and the research of famous domestic scholars, the correlations that affect employment elasticity are listed. Factors are income per capita, resource endowment, capital stock, industrial structure, technological progress and economic system. When choosing these factors, we consider the accessibility of data, avoid multi-collinearity and try to be as comprehensive as possible, and establish an econometric model for empirical analysis. The proportion of non-state-owned economy has the most significant effect on the employment elasticity in the output investment, followed by the price of capital factors, and then the level of per capita income. The price of labor and the elasticity of employment change in the opposite direction. Employment decreases with the increase of labor price, showing the phenomenon of capital replacing labor. Although the regression coefficients have not passed the test, it may be because they have two opposite effects on employment: increase and decrease. It does not mean that they have no effect on employment elasticity. The main effects of different periods are different. Therefore, in order to improve employment elasticity, the regression coefficients of industrial structure can not be ignored. Although it has not passed the significant test, the employment elasticity of the tertiary industry is far greater than that of the primary and secondary industries through regression analysis of different industries. Therefore, vigorously developing service industry and high-tech industry is also an important factor to promote employment and improve employment elasticity. The policy suggestions of high employment elasticity to alleviate employment pressure include ensuring economic development and promoting full employment; tapping resource endowment advantages and realizing coordinated interaction; optimizing investment structure and promoting diversification of investment subjects; promoting industrial restructuring and attaching importance to the development of tertiary industry; vigorously promoting scientific and technological innovation and transforming the mode of economic development; deepening economic system. Reform provides institutional guarantee for expanding employment.
【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F249.20
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