土地财政的效应评估

发布时间：2018-08-24 19:04

【摘要】：中国经济过去30年经历了飞速发展,创造了世界经济发展史上的一个奇迹。这种高速发展依靠的是高投资驱动的,土地红利在经济发展的初始积累过程发挥了重要的作用。然而,近两年我国经济进入到新常态攻坚期,GDP增速出现持续回落。面对这种经济现状,有必要探讨以往依靠土地财政的发展经济的模式的得失;同时讨论这种经济发展模式在现阶段以及短期内是否依然适用、如果不适用该如何改进等问题。对这些问题的研究有一定的理论价值和现实意义。本文旨在前人研究的基础上,通过计量分析,考察土地财政的正负效应。本文首先对土地财政的正效应进行了考察,利用中国31个省市自治区2003—2013年数据,采用中介效应模型,考察了土地财政、基础设施和外商直接投资之间的关系,得出土地财政会间接通过基础设施的投资建设增加对外商直接投资的吸引,从而改善地方经济发展状况。接着本文分析了土地财政的负效应,一方面测算了房地产市场的泡沫度,利用面板数据分析了高房价对居民福利造成的不良影响;另一方面分析了通过抵押土地获取大量贷款的行为会给地方政府带来巨额债务,形成债务风险。本文的创新点在于系统地从正反两方面分析了土地财政对经济的影响,完善了相关理论。在研究方法上,引入中介变量模型考察土地财政、基础设施和外商直接投资之间的关系,同时扩展了数据。在研究机制上,从土地财政改善区域投资环境、吸引外资的角度研究土地财政对地方经济的贡献,进而引发了对土地财政效应的思考。通过研究本文得出以下结论:土地财政对经济发展有着不可忽视的积极作用。大量土地财政资金投入到基础设施建设中,提升了地区交通、通信、能源等状况,改善了地区投资环境,从而吸引了大量的外资。外资进入到地方后,投入到制造业和服务业等行业中,为地方经济发展做出贡献,从某种意义上来说解决政府建设问题,会优化地方政府建设地方经济的模式,可能会把政府从对土地财政的过分依赖中解放出来;土地财政会抬高房价,使房价中泡沫成分增大,威胁经济的的长足、稳定、可持续的发展。房价中的泡沫会降低居民福利;土地财政会加大地方政府债务风险。地方政府将土地作为抵押物,从银行获得大量贷款投入到地方基础设施和公共服务建设等,从产生了巨额的政府债务。制约了地方经济的长足发展。
[Abstract]:China's economy has experienced rapid development in the past 30 years, creating a miracle in the history of world economic development. This high-speed development depends on high investment and land dividend plays an important role in the initial accumulation process of economic development. However, in the past two years, China's economy has entered a new normal period of sustained decline in GDP growth. In the face of this economic situation, it is necessary to explore the gains and losses of the past economic development model which relies on land finance, and to discuss whether this economic development model is still applicable at the present stage and in the short term, and if not, how to improve it. The study of these problems has certain theoretical value and practical significance. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the positive and negative effects of land finance through econometric analysis on the basis of previous studies. In this paper, the positive effects of land finance are investigated, and the relationship among land finance, infrastructure and foreign direct investment (FDI) is investigated by using the data of 31 provinces and autonomous regions in China from 2003 to 2013 and using the intermediary effect model. It is concluded that land finance can indirectly increase the attraction of foreign direct investment through investment in infrastructure, thus improving the situation of local economic development. Then this paper analyzes the negative effects of land finance, on the one hand, estimates the bubble degree of the real estate market, using panel data to analyze the negative impact of high house prices on the welfare of residents; On the other hand, the paper analyzes that obtaining a large amount of loans by mortgaging land will bring huge debts to local governments and form debt risk. The innovation of this paper lies in the systematic analysis of the impact of land finance on economy from both positive and negative aspects, and the improvement of relevant theories. In the research method, the intermediary variable model is introduced to study the relationship among land finance, infrastructure and FDI, and the data are expanded. In the aspect of research mechanism, the contribution of land finance to local economy is studied from the angle of land finance improving regional investment environment and attracting foreign capital. This paper draws the following conclusions: land finance plays an important role in economic development. A large amount of land financial funds have been invested in the infrastructure construction, which has improved the regional transportation, communications, energy and other conditions, improved the regional investment environment, and attracted a large number of foreign capital. After foreign investment enters the local areas, it will invest in industries such as manufacturing and service industries to contribute to the local economic development. In a sense, solving the problems of government construction will optimize the mode of local governments in building local economies. It may liberate the government from excessive reliance on land finance, which will raise house prices, increase the bubble content of house prices, and threaten the rapid, stable and sustainable development of the economy. A bubble in house prices would reduce welfare; land finance would increase the risk of local government debt. The local government takes the land as the collateral, obtains the massive loan from the bank to invest in the local infrastructure and the public service construction and so on, from has produced the huge government debt. Restricted the rapid development of local economy.
【学位授予单位】：山西师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F301;F812

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