中国对东盟直接投资的出口效应研究

发布时间：2018-09-01 20:22

【摘要】：贸易出口和对外直接投资对于国家和企业都是至关重要的。对于跨国企业,贸易出口能开拓市场;对外直接投资能让企业绕开贸易壁垒并充分利用当地各种资源,进而实现跨国企业的发展。对于国家,贸易出口是经济增长的重要途径之一;对外直接投资能促进跨国企业的成长和转型,进而能促进整个国家的产业结构升级。然而贸易出口和对外直接投资的关系在半个多世纪以来都未有定论。一些学者认为对外直接投资提升了企业实力,同时替代了出口;一些学者认为对外直接投资促进了母国中间产品的出口;还有一些学者认为,在不同的行业和国家,替代效应和促进效应都存在。近些年来,中国与东盟的经济往来愈加频繁。随着中国-东盟自贸区在2010年正式建成,中国对东盟的贸易出口额在四年的时间增加了近两倍,对东盟直接投资流量增加了1.77倍。在此背景下,中国企业在东盟的直接投资是牺牲了还是促进了贸易出口?为了解决这一问题,本文首先进行了国内外文献综述,分析了学者们针对不同国家之间贸易出口和对外直接投资的关系的讨论。根据2003-2014年的数据,对中国对东盟的直接投资与贸易出口两方面的宏观走势进行分析。本文分析国际直接投资出口效应的五个种类:由生产线、资本设备和中间产品引发的正向的贸易创造效应;由外贸公司、销售网点和售后服务引发的正向的市场扩大效应;由海外子公司竞争引起的负向的出口替代效应;由技术传播引起的正向和负向的技术溢出效应;由东道国就业量提升引起的正向的收入创造效应。本文根据国际直接投资的不同动因分析了出口效应传导机制:市场寻求型投资在建厂初期引发贸易创收效应和市场扩大效应,在海外企业成熟后引发了出口替代效应;由于效率寻求型投资的垂直一体化生产,投资母国、各零部件生产国、组装国和销售国的贸易量都提升了,引起了贸易创造效应和市场扩大效应;资源寻求型投资由于从母国进口开采设备引发了贸易创造效应。如果企业利用资源在当地制成成品就会引发出口替代效应,如果企业将资源运回母国制成成品就会引发市场扩大效应;由于技术寻求型投资成功获取技术并改善产品质量,其货物贸易和服务贸易都有所提升,引发了市场扩大效应。由于国际直接投资促进了当地居民的就业,所以无论任何投资动机都会引发收入创造效应。接下来本文结合中国对东盟直接投资与贸易出口的实际情况,讨论中国企业在东盟直接投资的出口效应传导机制。然后本文根据2003-2013年的数据,设定了人均国内生产总值、航运铁路加总、基础通讯设施等变量并建立了贸易引力模型。经过对面板数据的回归分析,最后得出了中国对东盟的直接投资在总体上对贸易出口的促进关系:中国对东盟的直接投资每增加1%,中国对东盟的贸易出口就会增加0.173%。在此基础上,本文通过两次F统计量的判断选择了变系数模型来考察出口效应的个体差异,得出老挝和柬埔寨的出口替代效应和其他国家的出口互补效应。最后进行了总结并提出了政策建议。
[Abstract]:Trade exports and foreign direct investment are of vital importance to both countries and enterprises. For multinational enterprises, trade exports can open up markets; and foreign direct investment can enable enterprises to bypass trade barriers and make full use of local resources to achieve the development of multinational enterprises. Firstly, foreign direct investment can promote the growth and transformation of multinational enterprises, and then promote the upgrading of the industrial structure of the whole country. However, the relationship between trade exports and foreign direct investment has not been conclusive for more than half a century. In recent years, economic exchanges between China and ASEAN have become more frequent. With the establishment of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area in 2010, China's trade with ASEAN has been exported for four years. In this context, Chinese enterprises'direct investment in ASEAN has sacrificed or promoted trade exports? In order to solve this problem, this paper first conducts a literature review at home and abroad, and analyzes the scholars' trade exports and foreign direct investment between different countries. Based on the data from 2003 to 2014, this paper analyzes the macro trend of China's direct investment and trade exports to ASEAN. Five types of export effects of FDI are analyzed in this paper: positive trade creation effects caused by production lines, capital equipment and intermediate products; foreign trade companies and sales networks. Positive market enlargement effect caused by point and after-sale service; negative export substitution effect caused by competition of overseas subsidiaries; positive and negative technology spillover effect caused by technology diffusion; positive income creation effect caused by the increase of employment in host country. This paper analyzes the spillover effect according to the different motivations of international direct investment. Export effect transmission mechanism: market-seeking investment in the early stage of plant construction leads to trade income-generating effect and market expansion effect, which leads to export substitution effect after the maturity of overseas enterprises; due to the vertical integration production of efficiency-seeking investment, the trade volume of investment home country, parts producer country, assembly country and sales country has increased, causing Trade creation effect and market expansion effect; resource-seeking investment triggers trade creation effect by importing and exploiting equipment from the home country. If enterprises make use of resources to produce finished products locally, export substitution effect will be triggered; if enterprises transport resources back to the home country to produce finished products, market expansion effect will be triggered; because of technology-seeking investment. With the successful acquisition of technology and the improvement of product quality, both trade in goods and services has increased, triggering a market expansion effect. As international direct investment promotes the employment of local residents, any investment motive will trigger an income creation effect. Then, based on the data of 2003-2013, this paper sets up the variables of GDP per capita, the aggregation of shipping and railway, and the basic communication facilities, and establishes the trade gravity model. On the whole, the relationship between direct investment and trade export is that for every 1% increase in China's direct investment in ASEAN, China's trade export to ASEAN will increase by 0.173%. On this basis, this paper chooses the variable coefficient model to examine the individual differences of export effect through two F statistics judgments, and obtains the export substitution of Laos and Cambodia. The effects of generation and complementary effects of other countries are summarized. Finally, policy recommendations are summarized.
【学位授予单位】：天津商业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F125;F752.7

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