安徽省制造业低端锁定及其升级研究

发布时间：2018-09-03 18:06

【摘要】：作为工业经济的主体,制造业是国民经济发展的重要支撑,其规模和水平及其在价值链分工中的地位,是一个国家或地区综合实力的重要标志。安徽正处在由工业化初期向工业化中后期过渡的关键时期,工业特别是制造业已成为安徽省经济发展的主导力量。安徽省制造业近年来迅速发展,但是长期的低端扩张带来的产能过剩、资源过度消耗、环境污染等问题日益严重,随着劳动力成本上升,人口红利也逐渐削弱。在垂直专业化分工以及新常态的大背景下,安徽省推出《加快调结构转方式促升级行动计划》,努力推动产业升级。研究安徽省制造业的低端锁定及其升级问题,对促进安徽省制造业的优化升级和持续发展有着重要的现实意义。针对安徽省制造业的发展状况与问题,运用统计数据分析安徽省制造业发展及其低端锁定的现状,判断出安徽省制造业主要处于加工装配等低附加值环节,然后利用面板数据模型分析国内价值链分工与全球价值链分工对其是否存在低端锁定,并对影响其升级的主要因素进行考察,进而提出促进安徽省制造业升级的思路与对策建议。论文共分为以下三个部分:首先,分析安徽省制造业发展及其低端锁定的现状。运用统计数据描述安徽省制造业的总量、结构与布局以及参与价值链分工的现状,然后,分析安徽省制造业产业间升级与产业内升级的趋势以及“微笑曲线”两端环节的能力,重点是结合现状分析,对安徽省制造业低端锁定的现状进行判断,进而阐明安徽省制造业价值链升级的必要性。结果表明,安徽省制造业近年来发展迅速,贸易额以及引进的资金额大幅上涨,参与价值链分工的程度日益加深,但承接的主要是价值链的低端环节;同时,安徽省制造业产业间升级与产业内升级显露了背离的趋势,技术和市场环节较弱;判断出安徽省制造业陷入价值链低端。其次,实证分析安徽省制造业价值链低端锁定及其升级的影响因素。运用2001-2014年间安徽省制造业分行业的面板数据,分析国内价值链分工与全球价值链分工对其是否存在低端锁定,并对影响其升级的主要因素进行考察。结果表明,全球价值链分工参与程度对安徽省制造业并未表现出显著的锁定效应,国内价值链分工对安徽省制造业的低端锁定效应已经显现;关于影响制造业价值链升级的因素,生产性服务业发展水平、企业规模、研发投入对安徽省制造业升级均有显著的正向作用。最后,提出安徽省制造业升级的思路和促进安徽省制造业升级的对策建议。
[Abstract]:As the main body of industrial economy, manufacturing industry is an important support for the development of national economy. Its scale and level, as well as its position in the division of labor in the value chain, is an important symbol of the comprehensive strength of a country or region. Anhui is in the key period of transition from the early industrialization to the late industrialization. Industry, especially the manufacturing industry, has become the leading force in the economic development of Anhui Province. The manufacturing industry of Anhui Province has developed rapidly in recent years, but the problems of overcapacity, excessive consumption of resources and environmental pollution brought by long-term low-end expansion are becoming more and more serious. With the increase of labor costs, the demographic dividend is gradually weakened. Under the background of vertical specialization and the new normal, Anhui Province launched the Plan of Action to accelerate the Transformation of structure and promote upgrading, in order to promote the upgrading of industry. It is of practical significance to study the low-end locking and upgrading of manufacturing industry in Anhui Province, which will promote the optimization and sustainable development of manufacturing industry in Anhui Province. In view of the development situation and problems of manufacturing industry in Anhui Province, using statistical data to analyze the current situation of manufacturing development and low end locking in Anhui Province, it is concluded that the manufacturing industry in Anhui Province is mainly in low value-added links such as processing and assembly. Then the panel data model is used to analyze whether there is a low-end lock between domestic value chain division and global value chain division, and to investigate the main factors that affect its upgrading. And then put forward the ideas and suggestions to promote the upgrading of manufacturing industry in Anhui Province. The thesis is divided into the following three parts: first, the development of manufacturing industry in Anhui Province and its low-end locking status. Using statistical data to describe the total amount, structure and layout of manufacturing industry in Anhui Province and the current situation of participating in the division of labor in value chain. Then, the paper analyzes the trend of upgrading and intra-industry upgrading of manufacturing industry in Anhui Province and the ability of the two ends of the "smile curve". The key point is to judge the current situation of low end locking of manufacturing industry in Anhui Province, and then clarify the necessity of upgrading the value chain of manufacturing industry in Anhui Province. The results show that the manufacturing industry of Anhui Province has developed rapidly in recent years, the volume of trade and the amount of capital imported have increased substantially, and the degree of participation in the division of labor in the value chain has deepened day by day, but the main undertaking is the low end of the value chain. The inter-industry upgrading and intra-industry upgrading of manufacturing industry in Anhui Province show the trend of deviation, the technical and market links are weak, and it is judged that the manufacturing industry in Anhui Province is in the low end of the value chain. Secondly, empirical analysis of Anhui Province manufacturing value chain low-end locking and upgrading factors. Based on the panel data of manufacturing industry in Anhui province from 2001 to 2014, this paper analyzes whether there is a low end lock between domestic value chain division and global value chain division, and investigates the main factors that affect its upgrading. The results show that the degree of participation in global value chain division has no significant lock-in effect on Anhui manufacturing industry, and the low end locking effect of domestic value chain division on Anhui manufacturing industry has been shown. The factors affecting the upgrading of manufacturing value chain, the development level of producer services, the scale of enterprises and the investment of R & D have significant positive effects on the upgrading of manufacturing industry in Anhui Province. Finally, the author puts forward the idea of upgrading the manufacturing industry in Anhui Province and the countermeasures and suggestions to promote the upgrading of the manufacturing industry in Anhui Province.
【学位授予单位】：安徽财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F427

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