安徽省农村信用社改制中的攀比效应研究
发布时间：2018-09-04 20:34
【摘要】：改革开放以来,我国金融业取得了巨大成就,发展进入加速期。但“金融排斥”问题却始终是困扰我国金融业发展的难题。在二元经济结构的背景下,国有商业银行从农村地区大量撤并机构网点,邮政储蓄银行只存不贷,农村信用社改革进程缓慢等因素,导致农村金融服务可得性较小,严重阻碍了“三农”经济的发展,进而拉大了城乡差距。在国家发展普惠金融的总体要求下,急切需要破解农村地区存在的金融排斥问题。国家积极引入出台相应政策,进行农村金融改革,构建以需求为导向的农村金融组织体系,加大了地方法人金融机构对农村经济的支持力度。而农村信用合作社正是这类地方法人金融机构的主要代表,其改制工作也开始加速。国家鼓励在经济比较发达、城乡一体化较高的地区,将农村信用社通过股份制改造组建成农村商业银行。在中国现行的政治体制下,地方政府可以有效干预或者控制地方法人金融机构,不少地区金融市场在很大程度上都带有地方政府塑造的痕迹,最终形成“地方法人金融机构在相当程度上从属于地方政府”的局面。因此,农村信用合作社也被深深地打上了地方政府的烙印。农村信用社作为支持农村金融服务的主力军,对推动农村经济发展具有十分突出的作用。地方政府推动农村信用社改制的积极性,即根源于农村信用社有望能够带动当地的经济增长。而在以经济绩效为主的官员考核体制下,良好的经济表现往往被认为是获得政治晋升的重要前提,经济分权和政治晋升构成了地方政府发展经济的内在动力。在追逐经济快速增长的目标下,金融资源无疑成为了地方政府争夺的主要对象。地方政府都有干预金融业的内在冲动,而推动设立地方法人金融机构则成为其最直接有效的做法。自2011年起,农村商业银行以每年120多家的数量增加,在银监会的全力推动之下,各地组建农村商业银行的步伐明显提速。但为什么有的县市已经成功地将农信社改制为农村商业银行,而另一些县市却尚未完成?各县市在改制农村商业银行上,是否存在策略互动?在全国农村商业银行还没有进行全面覆盖之前,要研究和解决这些问题,有必要对我国农村商业银行设立的原因进行全面、综合的定性和定量分析。为此,本文以安徽省农信社改制为例,在第二章对国内外文献进行综述的基础上,第三章对农信社发展情况及安徽省农村商业银行的现状进行描述。第四章通过理论和现实分析提出农信社的改制可能存在攀比效应。第五章运用实证分析,检验安徽省农村信用社的改制是否存在攀比效应,以帮助我们理解地方法人金融机构设立的逻辑。第六章提出相关建议,为其他地区农信社的改革工作和未来农村商业银行的持续发展提供借鉴。本文的目的在于通过研究地方法人金融机构在设立上存在的攀比效应来合理规范地方政府竞争行为、促进区域金融的进一步发展、避免资源配置扭曲问题。本文的研究思路为:首先,在绪论中论述本文的研究背景与意义、方法与技术路线、相关理论界定和可能存在的创新与不足,并在此基础上对现有文献进行综合述评、并提出本文的研究视角。其次,对农信社发展改革历程、安徽省农村商业银行现状进行描述。再次,通过对理论和现实的分析来提出本文需要验证的命题。然后,对计量经济模型进行权重构造,对安徽省农村商业银行设立存在的攀比效应进行实证分析。最后,对规范地方政府行为以及农村商业银行的发展提出相关建议。研究结果发现:县市社会经济发展水平、政府财政自主度对农村商业银行的成立具有显著性影响。一般而言,经济发展水平较高的地区,越倾向于将农信社组建为农村商业银行。基于空间Probit模型的实证结果表明,在政绩竞争体制的考虑下,周边县市农村商业银行的成立会刺激本县市农村商业银行的成立,农村商业银行的设立存在攀比效应,本文也通过稳健性分析和反事实推断证明了农村商业银行在设立上存在攀比效应。这些结论对于地方政府是否能够合理地设立地方法人金融机构、促进当地经济的可持续发展具有重要的现实意义。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's financial industry has made great achievements and entered an accelerated period of development. However, the problem of "financial exclusion" has always been a difficult problem in the development of China's financial industry. Slow progress and other factors lead to less availability of rural financial services, seriously hindering the development of the "three rural" economy, thus widening the gap between urban and rural areas. The construction of a demand-oriented rural financial organization system has strengthened the support of local legal person financial institutions to the rural economy. Rural credit cooperatives are the main representatives of such local legal person financial institutions, and their restructuring work has begun to accelerate. Credit cooperatives are formed into rural commercial banks through joint-stock reform. Under the current political system in China, local governments can effectively intervene in or control the local legal person financial institutions. Many regional financial markets bear traces of local government shaping to a great extent, and eventually form "local legal person financial institutions from a considerable extent." Rural credit cooperatives, as the main force to support rural financial services, play a very prominent role in promoting rural economic development. The enthusiasm of local governments to promote the reform of rural credit cooperatives is rooted in rural credit cooperatives. It is hoped that the local economic growth will be promoted. Under the official appraisal system based on economic performance, good economic performance is often regarded as an important prerequisite for political promotion. Economic decentralization and political promotion constitute the intrinsic motive force for local governments to develop their economy. Local governments have the intrinsic impulse to intervene in the financial industry, and promoting the establishment of local legal person financial institutions has become the most direct and effective way. Since 2011, rural commercial banks have increased by more than 120 each year. Under the full impetus of the CBRC, rural commercial banks have been set up everywhere. But why have some counties and cities successfully transformed rural credit cooperatives into rural commercial banks, while others have not yet been completed? Are there any strategic interactions among the counties and cities in restructuring rural commercial banks? Before the national rural commercial banks are fully covered, it is necessary to study and solve these problems. This paper takes the reform of Anhui Rural Credit Cooperatives as an example. Based on the review of the domestic and foreign literature in the second chapter, the third chapter describes the development of rural credit cooperatives and the current situation of rural commercial banks in Anhui Province. Chapter 5 uses empirical analysis to test whether there is a comparative effect in the reform of rural credit cooperatives in Anhui Province, so as to help us understand the logic of the establishment of local legal person financial institutions. Chapter 6 puts forward relevant suggestions for the reform of rural credit cooperatives in other areas and the future rural areas. The purpose of this paper is to study the comparative effect of the establishment of local corporate financial institutions to rationally regulate local government competition, promote the further development of regional finance, and avoid the distortion of resource allocation. Research background and significance, methods and technical routes, the definition of relevant theories and possible innovations and shortcomings, and on this basis, a comprehensive review of the existing literature, and put forward the perspective of this study. secondly, the development and reform of rural credit cooperatives, Anhui Province, the status of rural commercial banks are described. thirdly, through the theory and reality Then, the weights of econometric models are constructed, and the comparative effect of the establishment of rural commercial banks in Anhui Province is analyzed. Finally, some suggestions are put forward to standardize the behavior of local governments and the development of rural commercial banks. Generally speaking, the higher the level of economic development, the more inclined to form rural credit cooperatives into rural commercial banks. The empirical results based on the spatial Probit model show that, under the consideration of the performance competition system, the rural commercial banks in the surrounding counties and cities will be established. Stimulating the establishment of rural commercial banks in our county, the establishment of rural commercial banks has a comparative effect. This paper also proves that there is a comparative effect in the establishment of rural commercial banks through robust analysis and counterfactual inference. Sustainable development has important practical significance.
【学位授予单位】：安徽财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F832.35
本文编号：2223254
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's financial industry has made great achievements and entered an accelerated period of development. However, the problem of "financial exclusion" has always been a difficult problem in the development of China's financial industry. Slow progress and other factors lead to less availability of rural financial services, seriously hindering the development of the "three rural" economy, thus widening the gap between urban and rural areas. The construction of a demand-oriented rural financial organization system has strengthened the support of local legal person financial institutions to the rural economy. Rural credit cooperatives are the main representatives of such local legal person financial institutions, and their restructuring work has begun to accelerate. Credit cooperatives are formed into rural commercial banks through joint-stock reform. Under the current political system in China, local governments can effectively intervene in or control the local legal person financial institutions. Many regional financial markets bear traces of local government shaping to a great extent, and eventually form "local legal person financial institutions from a considerable extent." Rural credit cooperatives, as the main force to support rural financial services, play a very prominent role in promoting rural economic development. The enthusiasm of local governments to promote the reform of rural credit cooperatives is rooted in rural credit cooperatives. It is hoped that the local economic growth will be promoted. Under the official appraisal system based on economic performance, good economic performance is often regarded as an important prerequisite for political promotion. Economic decentralization and political promotion constitute the intrinsic motive force for local governments to develop their economy. Local governments have the intrinsic impulse to intervene in the financial industry, and promoting the establishment of local legal person financial institutions has become the most direct and effective way. Since 2011, rural commercial banks have increased by more than 120 each year. Under the full impetus of the CBRC, rural commercial banks have been set up everywhere. But why have some counties and cities successfully transformed rural credit cooperatives into rural commercial banks, while others have not yet been completed? Are there any strategic interactions among the counties and cities in restructuring rural commercial banks? Before the national rural commercial banks are fully covered, it is necessary to study and solve these problems. This paper takes the reform of Anhui Rural Credit Cooperatives as an example. Based on the review of the domestic and foreign literature in the second chapter, the third chapter describes the development of rural credit cooperatives and the current situation of rural commercial banks in Anhui Province. Chapter 5 uses empirical analysis to test whether there is a comparative effect in the reform of rural credit cooperatives in Anhui Province, so as to help us understand the logic of the establishment of local legal person financial institutions. Chapter 6 puts forward relevant suggestions for the reform of rural credit cooperatives in other areas and the future rural areas. The purpose of this paper is to study the comparative effect of the establishment of local corporate financial institutions to rationally regulate local government competition, promote the further development of regional finance, and avoid the distortion of resource allocation. Research background and significance, methods and technical routes, the definition of relevant theories and possible innovations and shortcomings, and on this basis, a comprehensive review of the existing literature, and put forward the perspective of this study. secondly, the development and reform of rural credit cooperatives, Anhui Province, the status of rural commercial banks are described. thirdly, through the theory and reality Then, the weights of econometric models are constructed, and the comparative effect of the establishment of rural commercial banks in Anhui Province is analyzed. Finally, some suggestions are put forward to standardize the behavior of local governments and the development of rural commercial banks. Generally speaking, the higher the level of economic development, the more inclined to form rural credit cooperatives into rural commercial banks. The empirical results based on the spatial Probit model show that, under the consideration of the performance competition system, the rural commercial banks in the surrounding counties and cities will be established. Stimulating the establishment of rural commercial banks in our county, the establishment of rural commercial banks has a comparative effect. This paper also proves that there is a comparative effect in the establishment of rural commercial banks through robust analysis and counterfactual inference. Sustainable development has important practical significance.
【学位授予单位】：安徽财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F832.35
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