新疆人口老龄化及其背景下的人口经济效应分析
发布时间：2018-11-04 20:25
【摘要】：在2015年进行的人口抽查公报中,新疆人口老龄化系数为7.21%,标志着新疆正式进入人口老龄化社会。作为西北重镇,丝绸之路核心区的新疆来说,其未来经济的发展和社会稳定将是关注的焦点,而人口因素将成为经济社会发展中不可忽视的因素,人口因素中人口老龄化对经济社会的影响较为深远。因此解析新疆人口老龄化的发展过程,剖析人口老龄化过程中新疆人口经济效应,减少负效应以发展经济应对老龄化问题,从而促进人口与经济的协调发展。本文首先对新疆人口老龄化现状进行介绍,分别从总体、地区、民族三个角度来描述,并对新疆人口老龄化的成因从人口角度开展分析。其次从时间维度上采用描述性统计的方法,展示新疆自1990-2015年人口老龄化发展水平和速度,人口结构和抚养比的变动情况,总结出新疆人口老龄化呈现城乡差异明显、“未富先老”和“未备先至”的特征,同时为更好地把握人口老龄化的发展趋势运用国际人口预测软件,以第六次人口普查数据为原始数据,设定低、中、高三种不同的生育水平,对新疆2011-2040年人口老龄化情况进行预测。从空间维度上,采用空间计量统计法,绘制人口老龄化的空间演化图,结果显示新疆人口老龄化是以天山北坡为圆心向四周扩展的同心圆的发展模式,并根据莫尼卡指数,得出新疆人口老龄化空间集聚性经历先减弱后加强的变化,其空间分布将进一步呈现非均衡的集聚特征,说明新疆人口老龄化自1990年以来在逐步加深,在空间上具有较强的传导性。其次,本文为了研究人口老龄化下对新疆的人口经济效应,从人口老龄化的直接经济和间接经济效应两个方面进行研究,采用时间跨度为1990-2015年,选取变量通过建立VAR模型,探究人口老龄化的直接经济效应。实证研究得出,从长期看老年抚养比对经济的直接效应为负,少年抚养比对经济增长产生的是正效应。同时脉冲函数分析人口老龄化通过对物质资本存量、人力资本水平、产业结构的路径进而对新疆产生的间接经济效应。在短期内,老年抚养比对物质资本存量存在显著的正向作用,但从长期来说,人口老龄化对物质资本存量是负向效应。老年抚养比对人力资本的作用较为波动,但总的来说负效应较为显著。老年抚养比对产业结构的转型升级产生微弱的正向效应。最后本文通过实证结论,对当期新疆人口老龄化提出建议。重视人力资本,挖掘老年人口的人力资本;调整产业结构,合力发展经济以应对老龄化;落实二胎政策,放缓老龄化步伐;促进人口流动,优化人口分布;完善养老保障体系,提高养老质量。
[Abstract]:The coefficient of population aging in Xinjiang is 7.21, which indicates that Xinjiang has entered an aging society. As a key town in the northwest, Xinjiang, the core area of the Silk Road, will pay close attention to its future economic development and social stability, while the population factor will become a factor that cannot be ignored in the economic and social development. Among the population factors, the aging of the population has a profound impact on the economy and society. Therefore, this paper analyzes the development process of population aging in Xinjiang, analyzes the economic effect of population in Xinjiang in the process of population aging, and reduces the negative effect in order to develop the economy to deal with the problem of aging, thus promoting the coordinated development of population and economy. This paper first introduces the current situation of population aging in Xinjiang, respectively from the overall, regional and ethnic perspectives to describe, and the causes of population aging in Xinjiang from the perspective of population analysis. Secondly, using the descriptive statistical method from the time dimension, the paper shows the development level and speed of population aging, population structure and dependency ratio change from 1990 to 2015 in Xinjiang, and concludes that the aging of population in Xinjiang presents obvious difference between urban and rural areas. The features of "getting old before you get rich" and "getting old before you are ready". In order to better understand the development trend of population ageing, we use the international population forecasting software to use the data of the sixth census as the original data. Three different fertility levels were used to predict the aging of Xinjiang population in 2011-2040. From the spatial dimension, the spatial evolution map of population aging is drawn by using the spatial measurement statistics method. The result shows that the population aging in Xinjiang is a concentric development model with the north slope of Tianshan Mountain as the center and extends around it, and according to the Monica index, It is concluded that the spatial agglomeration of population aging in Xinjiang has been weakened first and then strengthened, and its spatial distribution will further present the characteristics of non-equilibrium agglomeration, which indicates that the aging of population in Xinjiang has gradually deepened since 1990. It has strong conductivity in space. Secondly, in order to study the economic effect of population in Xinjiang under the aging of population, this paper studies the direct and indirect economic effects of the aging of the population from two aspects: the time span is 1990-2015, and the variables are selected to establish the VAR model. Explore the direct economic effects of population aging. The empirical study shows that in the long run, the direct effect of the old age dependency ratio is negative, and the juvenile rearing ratio has a positive effect on the economic growth. At the same time, the impulse function is used to analyze the indirect economic effects of aging population on the stock of material capital, the level of human capital and the industrial structure. In the short term, the aging dependency ratio has a significant positive effect on the physical capital stock, but in the long run, the aging of the population has a negative effect on the physical capital stock. The role of human capital is more fluctuating, but the negative effect is more significant. The elderly dependency ratio has a weak positive effect on the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure. Finally, through empirical conclusions, this paper puts forward some suggestions on the current population aging in Xinjiang. Pay attention to human capital, excavate the human capital of the old population, adjust the industrial structure, develop the economy together to deal with the aging, carry out the policy of the second child, slow down the aging step, promote the population flow, optimize the population distribution; We will improve the old-age security system and improve the quality of providing for the aged.
【学位授予单位】：新疆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：C924.2
本文编号：2311046
[Abstract]:The coefficient of population aging in Xinjiang is 7.21, which indicates that Xinjiang has entered an aging society. As a key town in the northwest, Xinjiang, the core area of the Silk Road, will pay close attention to its future economic development and social stability, while the population factor will become a factor that cannot be ignored in the economic and social development. Among the population factors, the aging of the population has a profound impact on the economy and society. Therefore, this paper analyzes the development process of population aging in Xinjiang, analyzes the economic effect of population in Xinjiang in the process of population aging, and reduces the negative effect in order to develop the economy to deal with the problem of aging, thus promoting the coordinated development of population and economy. This paper first introduces the current situation of population aging in Xinjiang, respectively from the overall, regional and ethnic perspectives to describe, and the causes of population aging in Xinjiang from the perspective of population analysis. Secondly, using the descriptive statistical method from the time dimension, the paper shows the development level and speed of population aging, population structure and dependency ratio change from 1990 to 2015 in Xinjiang, and concludes that the aging of population in Xinjiang presents obvious difference between urban and rural areas. The features of "getting old before you get rich" and "getting old before you are ready". In order to better understand the development trend of population ageing, we use the international population forecasting software to use the data of the sixth census as the original data. Three different fertility levels were used to predict the aging of Xinjiang population in 2011-2040. From the spatial dimension, the spatial evolution map of population aging is drawn by using the spatial measurement statistics method. The result shows that the population aging in Xinjiang is a concentric development model with the north slope of Tianshan Mountain as the center and extends around it, and according to the Monica index, It is concluded that the spatial agglomeration of population aging in Xinjiang has been weakened first and then strengthened, and its spatial distribution will further present the characteristics of non-equilibrium agglomeration, which indicates that the aging of population in Xinjiang has gradually deepened since 1990. It has strong conductivity in space. Secondly, in order to study the economic effect of population in Xinjiang under the aging of population, this paper studies the direct and indirect economic effects of the aging of the population from two aspects: the time span is 1990-2015, and the variables are selected to establish the VAR model. Explore the direct economic effects of population aging. The empirical study shows that in the long run, the direct effect of the old age dependency ratio is negative, and the juvenile rearing ratio has a positive effect on the economic growth. At the same time, the impulse function is used to analyze the indirect economic effects of aging population on the stock of material capital, the level of human capital and the industrial structure. In the short term, the aging dependency ratio has a significant positive effect on the physical capital stock, but in the long run, the aging of the population has a negative effect on the physical capital stock. The role of human capital is more fluctuating, but the negative effect is more significant. The elderly dependency ratio has a weak positive effect on the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure. Finally, through empirical conclusions, this paper puts forward some suggestions on the current population aging in Xinjiang. Pay attention to human capital, excavate the human capital of the old population, adjust the industrial structure, develop the economy together to deal with the aging, carry out the policy of the second child, slow down the aging step, promote the population flow, optimize the population distribution; We will improve the old-age security system and improve the quality of providing for the aged.
【学位授予单位】：新疆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：C924.2
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