人口红利对黑龙江省装备制造业转型升级的影响研究
发布时间：2018-11-05 13:03
【摘要】：在经济新常态下,黑龙江省的经济发展水平一直处于相对低迷的状态,2016年3月2日的全国政协十二届四次会议已经将"东北三省工业转型升级问题"列为重点协商议题。装备制造业作为工业发展的基础,其转型升级对黑龙江省经济发展意义重大。影响装备制造业转型升级的因素有很多,人口红利是其中的主要因素,尤其是在"科学技术是第一生产力"的今天,产业转型升级不仅仅依靠人口数量与结构,更重要的是人口质量。人口红利经历传统人口红利和新人口红利两个时期,刘易斯拐点的出现标志着传统人口红利的消失同时也标志着新人口红利时代的到来。传统的人口红利从人口结构性变化的角度来解释经济增长,其典型特点是劳动适龄人口比重提高和社会抚养系数下降。然而从黑龙江省近15年的人口统计数据来看,劳动适龄人口的比重增幅变小,社会抚养系数呈现先下降后增长的趋势。并且预计在后15年,这种趋势会愈加明显。在新人口红利时期,劳动人口数量的增速逐渐放缓,劳动人口质量的不断提高,劳动密集型产业已经不能成为产业发展的优势,装备制造业的转型升级更需要劳动力质量的推动。文章分为三大部分共五章的内容,第一部分为理论概述部分,通过对产业转型升级以及人口红利的相关含义和相关理论的梳理,分析了黑龙江省传统人口红利、新人口红利和装备制造业的发展现状,分别研究了传统人口红利和新人口红利与黑龙江省装备制造业产业转型升级的关系。第二部分为实证部分,主要采用Pearson相关性法、多元线性回归法,基于黑龙江省2001-2015年统计年鉴的客观数据进行数据分析,分别研究了传统人口红利和新人口红利对黑龙江省装备制造业产业转型的影响。研究表明:其一,在不考虑其它复杂因素条件下,下列影响因素对装备制造业产值的影响程度由大到小排列为少儿抚养比老年抚养比劳动力投入固定资产投入,总抚养比劳动力投入固定资产投入。其二,高等教育毕业人数与就业人数之间存在显著负相关关系,装备制造业产业就业人数不随高等教育毕业人数的增加而增加,装备制造业对高等教育人才的需求不足。第三部分为对策建议部分。根据第二部分的实证分析结果,在明确人口红利对产业转型升级的影响后,提出了合理性建议,具体建议为进一步挖掘人口红利的优势,创造人口红利条件;完善教育体系,调整教育结构;提高劳动力投入。
[Abstract]:Under the new economic normal, the level of economic development in Heilongjiang Province has been in a relatively low state. The fourth session of the 12th National Committee of the Chinese people's political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) on March 2, 2016, has made "the issue of industrial transformation and upgrading in the three Northeast provinces" a key subject for consultation. As the foundation of industrial development, equipment manufacturing industry is of great significance to the economic development of Heilongjiang Province. There are many factors affecting the transformation and upgrading of the equipment manufacturing industry, among which the demographic dividend is the main factor. Especially in today's "science and technology is the first productive force", the industrial transformation and upgrading is not only dependent on the number and structure of the population. More important is the quality of the population. The demographic dividend has experienced two periods: the traditional demographic dividend and the new demographic dividend. The emergence of Lewis inflection point marks the disappearance of the traditional demographic dividend and the arrival of the new demographic dividend era. The traditional demographic dividend explains the economic growth from the point of view of the structural change of the population. The typical characteristics of the dividend are the increase of the proportion of the working-age population and the decrease of the social dependency coefficient. However, according to the population statistics of Heilongjiang Province in the past 15 years, the proportion of the working-age population increased less, and the social dependency coefficient decreased first and then increased. And the trend is expected to grow in the next 15 years. During the period of the new demographic dividend, the growth rate of the number of the working population gradually slowed down, the quality of the working population was constantly improving, and the labor-intensive industries could no longer become an advantage in the development of industries. The transformation and upgrading of equipment manufacturing industry needs the promotion of labor quality. The article is divided into three parts and five chapters. The first part is the theoretical overview part. Through combing the related meanings and theories of the industrial transformation and the demographic dividend, the paper analyzes the traditional demographic dividend of Heilongjiang Province. The relationship between the traditional demographic dividend and the new demographic dividend and the transformation and upgrading of the equipment manufacturing industry in Heilongjiang Province is studied. The second part is the empirical part, which mainly adopts the Pearson correlation method and the multivariate linear regression method to analyze the data based on the objective data of the 2001-2015 statistical yearbook of Heilongjiang Province. The effects of traditional demographic dividend and new demographic dividend on the transformation of equipment manufacturing industry in Heilongjiang Province were studied respectively. The results show that: first, without considering other complex factors, the following factors affect the equipment manufacturing output value from large to small, in the order of children's dependency ratio to old age dependency ratio labor input fixed assets investment. Total maintenance ratio of labor input into fixed assets investment. Secondly, there is a significant negative correlation between the number of graduates of higher education and the number of employed people. The employment of equipment manufacturing industry does not increase with the increase of the number of graduates of higher education, and the demand for talents of higher education in equipment manufacturing industry is insufficient. The third part is the countermeasure suggestion part. According to the results of the second part of the empirical analysis, after clarifying the impact of the demographic dividend on the industrial transformation and upgrading, the paper puts forward some reasonable suggestions, which is to further tap the advantages of the demographic dividend and create the conditions for the demographic dividend; We will improve the education system, readjust the educational structure, and increase the input of labor force.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨商业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426
本文编号：2312176
[Abstract]:Under the new economic normal, the level of economic development in Heilongjiang Province has been in a relatively low state. The fourth session of the 12th National Committee of the Chinese people's political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) on March 2, 2016, has made "the issue of industrial transformation and upgrading in the three Northeast provinces" a key subject for consultation. As the foundation of industrial development, equipment manufacturing industry is of great significance to the economic development of Heilongjiang Province. There are many factors affecting the transformation and upgrading of the equipment manufacturing industry, among which the demographic dividend is the main factor. Especially in today's "science and technology is the first productive force", the industrial transformation and upgrading is not only dependent on the number and structure of the population. More important is the quality of the population. The demographic dividend has experienced two periods: the traditional demographic dividend and the new demographic dividend. The emergence of Lewis inflection point marks the disappearance of the traditional demographic dividend and the arrival of the new demographic dividend era. The traditional demographic dividend explains the economic growth from the point of view of the structural change of the population. The typical characteristics of the dividend are the increase of the proportion of the working-age population and the decrease of the social dependency coefficient. However, according to the population statistics of Heilongjiang Province in the past 15 years, the proportion of the working-age population increased less, and the social dependency coefficient decreased first and then increased. And the trend is expected to grow in the next 15 years. During the period of the new demographic dividend, the growth rate of the number of the working population gradually slowed down, the quality of the working population was constantly improving, and the labor-intensive industries could no longer become an advantage in the development of industries. The transformation and upgrading of equipment manufacturing industry needs the promotion of labor quality. The article is divided into three parts and five chapters. The first part is the theoretical overview part. Through combing the related meanings and theories of the industrial transformation and the demographic dividend, the paper analyzes the traditional demographic dividend of Heilongjiang Province. The relationship between the traditional demographic dividend and the new demographic dividend and the transformation and upgrading of the equipment manufacturing industry in Heilongjiang Province is studied. The second part is the empirical part, which mainly adopts the Pearson correlation method and the multivariate linear regression method to analyze the data based on the objective data of the 2001-2015 statistical yearbook of Heilongjiang Province. The effects of traditional demographic dividend and new demographic dividend on the transformation of equipment manufacturing industry in Heilongjiang Province were studied respectively. The results show that: first, without considering other complex factors, the following factors affect the equipment manufacturing output value from large to small, in the order of children's dependency ratio to old age dependency ratio labor input fixed assets investment. Total maintenance ratio of labor input into fixed assets investment. Secondly, there is a significant negative correlation between the number of graduates of higher education and the number of employed people. The employment of equipment manufacturing industry does not increase with the increase of the number of graduates of higher education, and the demand for talents of higher education in equipment manufacturing industry is insufficient. The third part is the countermeasure suggestion part. According to the results of the second part of the empirical analysis, after clarifying the impact of the demographic dividend on the industrial transformation and upgrading, the paper puts forward some reasonable suggestions, which is to further tap the advantages of the demographic dividend and create the conditions for the demographic dividend; We will improve the education system, readjust the educational structure, and increase the input of labor force.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨商业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426
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