安化县合理土地储备量研究

发布时间：2018-11-24 19:41

【摘要】：土地储备制度自开展以来在促进土地合理利用、优化土地配置和保证国有土地资产价值上发挥了巨大作用。土地储备量是土地储备过程中的关键问题,既要保证所储备的土地数量能够满足市场的需求,又不能因储备规模过大而造成资金压力。而安化县作为一个贫困县,经济发展落后,土地储备资金不充裕,合理土地储备量的确定更是政府亟待解决的现实问题。论文采用实地调研、数理统计、主成分分析、多元回归等方法,研究了安化县土地储备量影响因素,并在此基础上探索了安化县土地合理储备量模型,以期为政府相关部门和企业做出科学的土地储备决策提供参考依据。得出主要结论如下：(1)根据相关理论构建基于宏观层面的安化县土地储备量的影响因素指标体系,对安化县土地储备量的影响因素进行主成分分析,在众多因素中提取出两个主成分,并利用所提取的主成分进行安化县土地储备量的回归分析,得出影响安化县土地储备量的三个主要因素为储备资金、经济发展水平、人口状况。并通过回归模型对安化县土地储备量发展趋势进行预测,得出安化县土地储备量呈现不断扩大的趋势。(2)依据储备资金是安化县土地储备量最大的影响因素,从微观层面考虑土地储备量与成本之间的关系,结合安化县的实际情况,在土地储备总成本最小的基础上,参照存储理论中的需求是随机连续的多时期(s,S)模型来构建合理土地储备量模型。利用安化县土地储备中心2013-2015年三年来的数据,预测了了安化县2016年合理土地储备量。
[Abstract]:Land reserve system has played a great role in promoting the rational use of land, optimizing land allocation and ensuring the value of state-owned land assets. The amount of land reserve is a key problem in the process of land reserve. It is necessary to ensure that the amount of land reserves can meet the needs of the market and not cause financial pressure due to the excessive size of the reserve. Anhua County as a poor county, economic development is backward, land reserve funds are not sufficient, the determination of reasonable land reserves is a real problem to be solved by the government. Based on field investigation, mathematical statistics, principal component analysis and multivariate regression, this paper studies the influencing factors of land reserve in Anhua County, and explores the rational land reserve model of Anhua County on this basis. In order to provide a reference for the relevant government departments and enterprises to make scientific land reserve decisions. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) based on the relevant theories, the paper constructs the index system of the influencing factors of the land reserve quantity in Anhua county based on the macro level, and makes principal component analysis on the influencing factors of the land reserve quantity in Anhua county. Two principal components are extracted from many factors, and the regression analysis of the land reserves in Anhua County is carried out by using the extracted principal components. The three main factors affecting the land reserves in Anhua County are the reserve funds and the level of economic development. Demographic situation And through the regression model to forecast the development trend of the land reserve in Anhua county, it is concluded that the land reserve quantity of Anhua county is increasing continuously. (2) according to the reserve fund, it is the biggest influencing factor of the land reserve quantity in Anhua county. Considering the relationship between land reserve quantity and cost from the micro level, combining the actual situation of Anhua County, on the basis of minimum total cost of land reserve, referring to the demand in storage theory is a stochastic continuous multi-period (s, S) model to construct rational land reserve model. Based on the data of Anhua County Land Reserve Center for the past three years from 2013 to 2015, the reasonable land reserves in 2016 are forecasted.
【学位授予单位】：湖南农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F301.2

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