我国影子银行对货币政策传导的影响

发布时间：2018-11-27 08:52

【摘要】：2007年美国次贷危机爆发后,影子银行问题成为备受世界学者关注的焦点。而近年来,我国金融业的生态发生了深刻的变化,伴随着利率市场化的深入,影子银行成为社会融资的一个重要途径,并日益凸显出对货币政策的挑战。为了协调我国货币政策,提高货币政策的传导效率,加强货币政策效果,进而为我国经济和金融的健康发展提供有力保障,需要对影子银行与货币政策传导的关系进行深入的研究。首先总结了国内外对影子银行体系定义的经典概述,并根据国务院107号文件的分类角度对我国影子银行的组织形式进行阐述,详细分析了影子银行体系发展的动因:一二元结构背景下资金供求不平衡是影子银行迅速发展的根本原因;二"相机抉择"的金融政策是影子银行蓬勃发展的政策原因;三金融创新是影子银行繁荣发展的直接原因。其次,理论分析影子银行体系对货币政策传导的影响,重点阐述影子银行信用创造机制,通过中美影子体系对比,更加凸显我国影子银行的特点。并在我国影子银行独特的信用创造基础上,分析其对货币政策两大传导渠道(利率渠道、信贷渠道)、货币政策目标、货币政策工具的影响。再次,为了验证上文的定性分析,利用VEC模型进行计量分析,将衡量货币政策有效性的指标CPI、货币供应量M2、银行间同业拆借利率和影子银行体系规模四个指标构建模型,进行脉冲响应分析和方差分解并得出结论:影子银行体系扩大了货币供应量,而且对利率也有一定的影响,通过作用于中介目标来干扰货币政策传导效率。但可以看出随着利率市场化进程的日趋完善,影子银行规模对正规银行体系利率变动的作用会越来越小。最后根据前文的研究脉络,分别对优化货币政策传导效率和引导影子银行健康发展提出有效建议。对优化货币政策传导效率建议包括深化利率市场化改革,探索新的货币政策工具,例如SLQ、MLF等。对影子银行健康发展建议主要侧重于强化分类管理,完善相关法律法规,推进金融创新。
[Abstract]:After the subprime mortgage crisis broke out in 2007, shadow banking has become the focus of attention of scholars all over the world. In recent years, the ecology of our financial industry has undergone profound changes. With the deepening of interest rate marketization, shadow banking has become an important way of social financing, and increasingly highlights the challenge to monetary policy. In order to coordinate the monetary policy of our country, improve the transmission efficiency of monetary policy, strengthen the effect of monetary policy, and then provide a strong guarantee for the healthy development of our economy and finance, The relationship between shadow banking and monetary policy transmission needs to be deeply studied. Firstly, it summarizes the classical definition of shadow banking system at home and abroad, and expounds the organizational form of shadow banking in China according to the classification angle of State Council document 107. The causes of the development of the shadow banking system are analyzed in detail: firstly, the imbalance of capital supply and demand is the fundamental reason for the rapid development of the shadow banking system under the background of dualistic structure; The second is the policy reason for the flourishing development of shadow banking, and the third is the direct reason for the prosperity and development of shadow banking. Secondly, the influence of shadow banking system on the transmission of monetary policy is analyzed theoretically, with emphasis on the credit creation mechanism of shadow banking, which highlights the characteristics of shadow banking in China through the comparison of the shadow system between China and the United States. On the basis of the unique credit creation of shadow banking in China, this paper analyzes its influence on the two transmission channels of monetary policy (interest rate channel, credit channel), monetary policy target and monetary policy instrument. Thirdly, in order to verify the qualitative analysis above, using the VEC model to carry on the econometric analysis, the paper constructs the model of CPI, money supply M2, interbank offered rate and the scale of shadow banking system, which measure the effectiveness of monetary policy. The impulse response analysis and variance decomposition are carried out and the conclusion is drawn that the shadow banking system expands the money supply and has a certain influence on the interest rate and interferes with the transmission efficiency of monetary policy by acting on the intermediate target. However, with the improvement of interest rate marketization process, the effect of shadow banking scale on the interest rate changes in the formal banking system will become smaller and smaller. Finally, according to the previous research context, the paper puts forward some effective suggestions to optimize the transmission efficiency of monetary policy and guide the healthy development of shadow banking. The suggestions for optimizing the transmission efficiency of monetary policy include deepening the reform of interest rate marketization and exploring new monetary policy tools such as SLQ,MLF and so on. The suggestions for the healthy development of shadow banking mainly focus on strengthening classified management, perfecting relevant laws and regulations, and promoting financial innovation.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F822.0;F832.3

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