贵州省居民消费影响因素的实证研究

发布时间：2019-02-13 08:21

【摘要】：投资、出口和消费是拉动经济增长的三驾马车,而近些年我国消费水平不容乐观。内需不足,居民消费水平增长缓慢,制约着我国经济的发展。贵州省作为全国相对落后的省份,消费和经济发展水平都低于全国平均水平,因此扩大居民消费变得越来越重要。鉴于此,本文运用宏观经济学、数理统计相关理论建立计量经济模型,对贵州省的居民消费及其影响因素进行研究,考察其消费水平和变化趋势,挖掘影响居民消费的主要因素及其相互关系,并提出相应对策。全文从西方经济学理论出发,运用数理统计方法对贵州省居民消费特点及其影响因素进行了研究。首先运用消费理论分析了贵州省居民整体消费现状,并与全国平均水平及我国西部地区进行了比较,结果显示,贵州省居民消费水平整体上是不断提高的,但远低于全国平均水平,在西部地区也排名倒数。随后,本文提取了贵州省2000-2013年9个市(州)城镇居民人均收入和人均消费数据进行面板数据聚类分析,结果显示,人均收入和人均消费的聚类情况基本相同,市(州)间收入差距比较大。最后,本文将收入因素、城乡差距因素、财政支出因素作为消费的影响因素,利用2000-2013年贵州省9个市(州)的数据建立面板数据模型进行分析,结果表明,贵阳市的消费水平及生活水平均处在贵州省最前列,但毕节市和铜仁市则消费靠后;收入水平和消费习惯对各市(州)居民消费的影响显著,但对各市(州)的影响程度各不相同;城乡差距对大部分市(州)的消费起抑制作用;财政支出对所有市(州)的消费都起到促进作用。本文的主要贡献体现在以下几个方面:一是将面板数据模型引入到贵州省的消费模型中,建立了市(州)级的面板数据模型;二是分析了贵州省的消费状况,突出了贵州省消费变化趋势及不同地区之间的经济差异;三是分析了消费的影响因素,从经济因素和社会因素两方面进行理论与实证分析;四是按照经济学知识,将消费理论与面板数据模型结合起来,为提高贵州省居民消费水平提供对策。
[Abstract]:Investment, export and consumption are the troika driving economic growth, but in recent years, the consumption level of our country is not optimistic. Domestic demand is insufficient, resident consumption level grows slowly, restrict the development of our country economy. As a relatively backward province in China, Guizhou Province has a lower level of consumption and economic development than the national average, so it is more and more important to expand the consumption of residents. In view of this, this article uses the macroeconomics, the mathematical statistics correlation theory to establish the econometric economic model, carries on the research to the Guizhou Province resident consumption and its influence factor, inspects its consumption level and the change tendency. Excavate the main factors that affect the residents' consumption and their mutual relations, and put forward the corresponding countermeasures. Based on the western economic theory, this paper studies the characteristics and influencing factors of residents' consumption in Guizhou Province by means of mathematical statistics. First of all, this paper analyzes the overall consumption status of residents in Guizhou Province by using the consumption theory, and compares it with the national average level and the western region of China. The results show that the overall consumption level of residents in Guizhou Province is constantly improving. But far below the national average, in the western region also ranked backwards. Then, the data of per capita income and per capita consumption of urban residents in 9 cities (states) of Guizhou Province from 2000 to 2013 are analyzed by panel data clustering analysis. The results show that the clustering situation of per capita income and per capita consumption is basically the same. City (state) between the income gap is relatively large. Finally, this paper takes the income factor, the urban-rural disparity factor and the fiscal expenditure factor as the consumption influence factor, uses the data of 9 cities (states) of Guizhou Province from 2000 to 2013 to establish the panel data model to carry on the analysis, the result shows that, The consumption level and living standard of Guiyang City are in the forefront of Guizhou Province, but Bijie City and Tongren City are lower in consumption. Income level and consumption habits have a significant impact on the consumption of residents in different cities (states), but the influence degree of different cities (states) is different, the gap between urban and rural areas has a restraining effect on the consumption of most cities (states). Fiscal spending promotes consumption in all cities (states). The main contributions of this paper are as follows: first, the panel data model is introduced into the consumption model of Guizhou Province, and the municipal (state) level panel data model is established; The second is to analyze the consumption situation of Guizhou province, to highlight the trend of consumption change and the economic difference between different regions, the third is to analyze the influencing factors of consumption, and to analyze theoretically and empirically from the two aspects of economic and social factors. Fourth, according to the knowledge of economics, the consumption theory and panel data model are combined to provide countermeasures for improving the consumption level of residents in Guizhou province.
【学位授予单位】：贵州民族大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F126.1;F224

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