加纳外部借贷对经济增长影响的实证研究
发布时间：2019-03-19 21:24
【摘要】：本论文的主要目的是确定外债对加纳经济增长的影响。这项研究用1970-2014年的时间序列数据做了实证分析,涵盖期45年。主要数据的来源包含世界银行,国际货币基金组织,加纳银行,加纳统计服务和财政部。在研究中采用实际GDP作为衡量经济增长的指标,外债存量(EXDS)作为债务负担的指标,用外部债务偿还(EXDSVIC)找出加纳否有存在经济资本外流。建立这些主要的变量与对实际国内生产总值之间的回归关系。本文纳入的其他经济变量还包括外汇的价格(PXF),出口额(EXPT)和资本形成总额(GCF)。首先,进行单位根检验以确定变量是否平稳或它们是否同阶单整。增广Dickey Fuller(ADF)检验的结果表明,变量均为一阶单整。该研究使用Johansen Cointegration技术和跟踪统计和Max Eigen值统计进一步发现变量之间存在着长期的协整关系。关于外债对加纳的经济增长的影响,实证模型估计结果表明实际GDP的对数RGDP和外部债务存量对数EXDS之间存在正向的关系。当外部债务存量EXDS变化1%时会导致实际GDP发生约0.00%的变化。说明外部债务对有RGDP的影响很微弱,同时系数的符号正向表明在加纳没有债务负担。然而,RGDP的对数与外部债务偿还EXDSVIC对数之间存在负相关关系,表明加纳存在经济资本外流。实证结果表明,外债偿还每增加1%,将导致实际GDP减少约0.063%,即表现出负的弹性关系。研究结果还表明,出口额(EXPT)和资本形成总额(GCF)每1%的增加会分别导致RGDP增加约0.058%和0.069%。外汇的价格(PXF)与实际GDP存在正的弹性相关关系。模型估计结果表明,外汇价格发生1%的变化将导致实际GDP变化0.016%。回归模型的拟合优度约为99.7%。论文采用格兰杰因果检验技术来确定RGDP与外债存量EXDS之间的因果关系。测试结果表明,这两个变量之间存在单向因果关系:外部债务存量的对数是实际GDP对数的格兰杰原因。为了进一步了解外债对经济增长的影响,本文还对加纳外债与出口的关系以及出口额(EXPT)和资本形成总额(GFCF)之间的关系进行了实证分析。回归结果表明,加纳的出口和外债之间存在正弹性相关关系:外债每增加1%将导致出口增加约0.55%。另外,资本形成总额与出口额之间也存在正弹性相关关系:资本形成总额每1%的增加导致出口增加约0.45%,模型的拟合优度为92.1%。基于以上研究结果,作者提出以下建议来帮助制定政策,减少外部借款,提出采取还本付息管理措施,以确保实际GDP的增长。首先,研究结果表明,虽然影响非常小,经济增长和外部借贷之间确实有正相关关系。因此,建议将外债贷款投向资本基础设施或高回报的资本产品,以保证经济的强劲增长。研究结果还表明,外债偿还对加纳经济增长具有退化效应。因此,建议外债投资于资本项目,不需要很长的酝酿期便能产生预期回报。此外,外部来源的资金应该用于高回报的项目,这些项目的利润可以用来偿还这些贷款,而不是通过对国内经济增加税收来筹集足够的收入来偿还这些贷款。通过对国内经济增加税收来还贷不仅妨碍向本土经济投资也可能迫使潜在的投资者将资本投资于本土经济之外,从而形成资本外逃。论文还建议,财政部的债务管理部门应严格遵循偿债时间表,减少不必要的延误,因为更多的延迟会导致利息积累而危害经济增长,这就是为什么这个变量的估计系数是负值的合理解释。更进一步的建议是,一旦加纳依赖商品价格作为外汇来源,应当在商品出口前对商品增大附加值,使它们能赚取更多的外汇,以补充国内储蓄投资,这在某种程度上有助于减少对国内经济投资的外部借贷资金,也可以减少加纳经济增长的贸易赤字。
[Abstract]:The main purpose of this paper is to determine the impact of external debt on the growth of Ghana's economy. The study used the time series data of 1970-2014 to make an empirical analysis, covering a period of 45 years. The main sources of data include the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the Ghana Bank, the Ghana Statistical Service and the Ministry of Finance. In the study, using the real GDP as an indicator of the economic growth, the external debt stock (EXDS) is used as an indicator of the debt burden, and the external debt service (EXDSVIC) is used to find out that there is an outflow of economic capital in Ghana. The relationship between these major variables and actual gross domestic product (GDP) is established. Other economic variables included in this article also include the price of foreign exchange (PXF), the export volume (EXPT) and the total capital formation (GCF). First, a unit root test is performed to determine if the variable is stable or whether they are in the same order. The results of the Dichkey Fuller (ADF) test show that the variables are first-order single-integer. The study uses the Johansen Cointegration technique and the tracking statistics and the Max Eigen value statistics to further find a long-term co-integration relationship between variables. With regard to the effect of external debt on the economic growth of Ghana, the empirical model estimates show that there is a positive relationship between the log-RGDP of real GDP and the logarithmic EXDS of the external debt stock. When the external debt stock EXDS changes by 1%, it will result in a change in the actual GDP of about 0.00%. It is clear that the impact of external debt on the RGDP is weak, while the sign of the coefficient is indicating that there is no debt burden in Ghana. However, there is a negative correlation between the logarithm of RGDP and the logarithm of the external debt repayment EXDSVIC, which indicates that there is an outflow of economic capital in Ghana. The empirical result shows that the external debt repayment increases by 1%, which will result in a reduction of the real GDP by about 0.063%, that is, the negative elastic relationship. The results also show that the increase in exports (EXPT) and capital formation (GCF) per 1% will result in an increase in RGDP by about 0.058% and 0.069%, respectively. The price of foreign exchange (PXF) is positively related to the real GDP. The model estimates show that a 1% change in the foreign exchange price will result in an actual GDP change of 0.016%. The goodness of fit of the regression model is about 99.7%. The Granger causality test is used to determine the causal relationship between the RGDP and the external debt stock EXDS. The test results show that there is one-way causal relationship between the two variables: the logarithm of the external debt stock is the Granger cause of the actual GDP log. In order to further understand the effect of external debt on economic growth, this paper also makes an empirical analysis of the relationship between the external debt and the export of Ghana, as well as the relationship between the export volume (EXPT) and the total capital formation (GFCF). The return results show that there is a positive and elastic relationship between the export of Ghana and the external debt: an increase of 1 per cent of external debt will result in an increase of about 0.55 per cent in exports. In addition, there is a positive correlation between the total capital formation and the export volume: the increase in capital formation per 1% results in an increase of about 0.45 per cent in the export and 92.1 per cent for the model. Based on the results of the above research, the authors put forward the following suggestions to help formulate policies, reduce external borrowing, and put forward the measures of debt service management to ensure the growth of real GDP. First, the results show that, while the impact is very small, there is a positive correlation between economic growth and external borrowing. It is therefore recommended that external debt loans be directed to capital infrastructure or high-return capital products to ensure a strong growth in the economy. The results of the study also show that the external debt repayment has a degradation effect on the growth of Ghana's economy. It is therefore recommended that external debt be invested in capital projects and that a long incubation period is not required to produce the expected return. In addition, external sources should be used for projects with high returns, and the profits of these projects can be used to repay those loans, rather than to raise enough revenue to repay the loans by raising taxes on the domestic economy. It is not only an obstacle to the domestic economic investment, but also to the potential investors to invest in the local economy, thus forming capital flight. The paper also suggests that the Ministry of Finance's debt management should strictly follow the debt-servicing schedule and reduce unnecessary delays, as more delays can lead to the accumulation of interest and harm the growth of the economy, which is why the estimation of this variable is a reasonable explanation of negative values. It is further suggested that, once Ghana is dependent on commodity prices as a source of foreign exchange, the value added to the commodities should be increased prior to the export of goods so that they can earn more foreign exchange in order to supplement domestic savings and investment, This will, to some extent, help to reduce external lending to domestic economic investment and to reduce the trade deficit in Ghana's economic growth.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F831.6;F144.5
，
本文编号：2443912
[Abstract]:The main purpose of this paper is to determine the impact of external debt on the growth of Ghana's economy. The study used the time series data of 1970-2014 to make an empirical analysis, covering a period of 45 years. The main sources of data include the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the Ghana Bank, the Ghana Statistical Service and the Ministry of Finance. In the study, using the real GDP as an indicator of the economic growth, the external debt stock (EXDS) is used as an indicator of the debt burden, and the external debt service (EXDSVIC) is used to find out that there is an outflow of economic capital in Ghana. The relationship between these major variables and actual gross domestic product (GDP) is established. Other economic variables included in this article also include the price of foreign exchange (PXF), the export volume (EXPT) and the total capital formation (GCF). First, a unit root test is performed to determine if the variable is stable or whether they are in the same order. The results of the Dichkey Fuller (ADF) test show that the variables are first-order single-integer. The study uses the Johansen Cointegration technique and the tracking statistics and the Max Eigen value statistics to further find a long-term co-integration relationship between variables. With regard to the effect of external debt on the economic growth of Ghana, the empirical model estimates show that there is a positive relationship between the log-RGDP of real GDP and the logarithmic EXDS of the external debt stock. When the external debt stock EXDS changes by 1%, it will result in a change in the actual GDP of about 0.00%. It is clear that the impact of external debt on the RGDP is weak, while the sign of the coefficient is indicating that there is no debt burden in Ghana. However, there is a negative correlation between the logarithm of RGDP and the logarithm of the external debt repayment EXDSVIC, which indicates that there is an outflow of economic capital in Ghana. The empirical result shows that the external debt repayment increases by 1%, which will result in a reduction of the real GDP by about 0.063%, that is, the negative elastic relationship. The results also show that the increase in exports (EXPT) and capital formation (GCF) per 1% will result in an increase in RGDP by about 0.058% and 0.069%, respectively. The price of foreign exchange (PXF) is positively related to the real GDP. The model estimates show that a 1% change in the foreign exchange price will result in an actual GDP change of 0.016%. The goodness of fit of the regression model is about 99.7%. The Granger causality test is used to determine the causal relationship between the RGDP and the external debt stock EXDS. The test results show that there is one-way causal relationship between the two variables: the logarithm of the external debt stock is the Granger cause of the actual GDP log. In order to further understand the effect of external debt on economic growth, this paper also makes an empirical analysis of the relationship between the external debt and the export of Ghana, as well as the relationship between the export volume (EXPT) and the total capital formation (GFCF). The return results show that there is a positive and elastic relationship between the export of Ghana and the external debt: an increase of 1 per cent of external debt will result in an increase of about 0.55 per cent in exports. In addition, there is a positive correlation between the total capital formation and the export volume: the increase in capital formation per 1% results in an increase of about 0.45 per cent in the export and 92.1 per cent for the model. Based on the results of the above research, the authors put forward the following suggestions to help formulate policies, reduce external borrowing, and put forward the measures of debt service management to ensure the growth of real GDP. First, the results show that, while the impact is very small, there is a positive correlation between economic growth and external borrowing. It is therefore recommended that external debt loans be directed to capital infrastructure or high-return capital products to ensure a strong growth in the economy. The results of the study also show that the external debt repayment has a degradation effect on the growth of Ghana's economy. It is therefore recommended that external debt be invested in capital projects and that a long incubation period is not required to produce the expected return. In addition, external sources should be used for projects with high returns, and the profits of these projects can be used to repay those loans, rather than to raise enough revenue to repay the loans by raising taxes on the domestic economy. It is not only an obstacle to the domestic economic investment, but also to the potential investors to invest in the local economy, thus forming capital flight. The paper also suggests that the Ministry of Finance's debt management should strictly follow the debt-servicing schedule and reduce unnecessary delays, as more delays can lead to the accumulation of interest and harm the growth of the economy, which is why the estimation of this variable is a reasonable explanation of negative values. It is further suggested that, once Ghana is dependent on commodity prices as a source of foreign exchange, the value added to the commodities should be increased prior to the export of goods so that they can earn more foreign exchange in order to supplement domestic savings and investment, This will, to some extent, help to reduce external lending to domestic economic investment and to reduce the trade deficit in Ghana's economic growth.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F831.6;F144.5
，
本文编号：2443912
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