水资源承载力空间评价模型及其应用研究

发布时间：2019-04-27 09:10

【摘要】：由于经济发展迅猛及人口剧增,水资源、水环境、人口及发展之间的矛盾愈演愈烈。开孔河流域的水资源存在空间分布及用水结构不合理的情况,并对其社会经济的良性发展构成了潜在威胁。从而,水资源承载力的评估可为缺水地区的水资源规划提供依据,同时便于管理者对当前环境和经济协调发展采取应对措施。本文以开孔河流域为研究对象,首先利用统计数据建立水资源承载力系统动力学模型,其次通过改变其决策变量设计3种方案:节水型、调整产业结构型和综合型方案。分别模拟了不同方案下2010年、2020年和2030年的总需水量和水资源供需差空间变化,最后通过熵值法计算流域水资源承载力空间分布,并将这两种方法的研究结果做对比分析,给出一些提升流域水资源承载力的措施。本研究得到的主要结论如下:(1)运用系统动力学模型原理和地理信息系统功能,构建了开孔河流域水资源承载力空间系统动力学模型,并验证该模型的有效性。检验结果表明,建立的模型是合理的,对历史数据的拟合精度基本满足要求,能够较好的反映出实际系统的运行特征。(2)空间系统动力学模拟结果表明:流域的水资源供需差空间分布差异显著,北部明显高于南部。和静县的大部分区域水资源供需差均超过4.50×109 m~3;缺水最严重的是库尔勒市,供需差为-9.65×108m~3。整体来看,从2010~2030年,流域的水资源供需差逐年增大,供需矛盾随之加剧。(3)将节水型、调整产业结构型和综合型方案与常规发展模式进行对比分析得出,采取调整产业结构型方案后,流域水资源承载力明显下降,水资源供需矛盾最为突出;采取节水型方案后,流域的水资源承载力有所增加,增幅仅次于综合型方案;在综合型方案下,开孔河流域的水资源承载力大于前面任何一种单因素方案,故该方案最优。(4)由熵值法计算研究表明:开孔河流域各县市的水资源承载力表现为空间和时间差异都显著的特征,且综合水平较低。2020年的水资源承载力指数最低,其值为0.283,2030年出现最大值0.392,2010年的水资源承载力指数为0.364,介于二者之间。其中,水资源承载力指数的最大值为最小值的1.39倍,2010年~2020年的减小幅度为22.3%,而2020年到2030年的增加幅度为38.5%。(5)对比空间系统动力学和熵值法的水资源承载力评价结果得出,虽然两种方法的原理不同,但得到的承载力空间分布趋势基本一致,均能反映流域的实际承载状况。(6)水资源承载力受到水资源量的影响较为显著。从空间角度而言,在研究时段内,和静县的水资源承载力为流域最高,其次为库尔勒市,尉犁县最低。和静县水量丰富,故承载力较高,而尉犁县的多年平均水资源量仅为0.1389×108 m~3,承载水平最低。
[Abstract]:The contradiction between water resources, water environment, population and development is becoming more and more serious due to the rapid economic development and the rapid increase of population. The spatial distribution of water resources and unreasonable structure of water use in Kaikong River Basin pose a potential threat to the benign development of its social economy. Therefore, the assessment of water resources carrying capacity can provide a basis for water resources planning in water-deficient areas, and facilitate managers to take measures to cope with the current coordinated development of environment and economy. In this paper, taking Kaikong River basin as the research object, firstly, the system dynamics model of water resources carrying capacity is established by using statistical data. Secondly, by changing its decision variables, three schemes are designed: water-saving type, adjusting industrial structure type and comprehensive scheme. The spatial variation of total water demand and water supply-demand difference in 2010, 2020 and 2030 under different schemes are simulated respectively. Finally, the spatial distribution of water resources carrying capacity in watershed is calculated by entropy method, and the research results of the two methods are compared and analyzed. Some measures to improve the carrying capacity of water resources in the basin are given. The main conclusions obtained in this study are as follows: (1) the spatial system dynamics model of water resources carrying capacity in Kaikong River Basin is constructed by using the principle of system dynamics model and GIS function, and the validity of the model is verified. The test results show that the established model is reasonable, and the fitting precision of historical data basically meets the requirements. (2) the simulation results of spatial system dynamics show that the spatial distribution of the difference between water supply and demand in the basin is significant, and the difference between the water supply and demand in the north is significantly higher than that in the south. The difference of water supply and demand in most regions of Hejing County is more than 4.50 脳 109mm3; the most serious water shortage is in Kurle City, with a difference of-9.65 脳 108m / 3 and-9.65 脳 108mm3 路m ~ (- 1). Overall, from 2010 to 2030, the difference between water supply and demand has increased year by year, and the contradiction between supply and demand has intensified. (3) comparing and analyzing the water-saving, adjusting industrial structure and comprehensive scheme with the conventional development mode, After the adjustment of industrial structure, the carrying capacity of water resources in the basin decreased obviously, and the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources was the most prominent. After adopting the water-saving scheme, the carrying capacity of water resources in the basin has increased, which is second only to the comprehensive scheme. Under the comprehensive scheme, the carrying capacity of water resources in the Kaikong River basin is greater than that of any single-factor scheme. Therefore, the scheme is optimal. (4) the results of entropy calculation show that the water resources carrying capacity of the counties and cities in the Kaikong River basin is characterized by significant spatial and temporal differences, and the comprehensive level is lower. The index of water resources carrying capacity in 2020 is the lowest, and the water resources carrying capacity index in 2020 is the lowest. Its value is 0.283, the maximum value is 0.392 in 2030, and the carrying capacity index of water resources in 2010 is 0.364, which is between them. Among them, the maximum value of the carrying capacity index of water resources is 1.39 times of the minimum value, and the decrease from 2010 to 2020 is 22.3%. The increase from 2020 to 2030 is 38.5%. (5) comparing the evaluation results of spatial system dynamics and entropy method, the results show that although the principles of the two methods are different, the spatial distribution trend of bearing capacity is basically the same. All of them can reflect the actual carrying capacity of the basin. (6) the bearing capacity of water resources is significantly affected by the amount of water resources. From the point of view of space, the water resources carrying capacity of Hejing county is the highest in the research period, the next is Kurle city, and the lowest in Yuli county. Hejing County is rich in water quantity, so the bearing capacity is higher, while the average water resource in Yuli County is only 0.1389 脳 10 ~ 8 mm2 ~ 3, with the lowest load-bearing level.
【学位授予单位】：石河子大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TV213.4

【参考文献】