我国城镇居民体育消费经济增长效应评价
发布时间：2019-04-28 14:57
【摘要】：改革开放三十年以来,我国经济发展经历从持续高速增长到稳步放缓提升的阶段。随着我国经济迈入新常态,产业结构优化升级,从投资驱动和要素驱动转向创新驱动,新兴产业异军突起,体育产业成为令人瞩目的新经济增长点。大力挖掘居民体育消费潜力,对于促进体育产业发展、改善人们生活水平和拉动经济增长具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。本文以我国当前经济转型升级时期,体育产业发展方式转变和经济产业结构转型升级为背景,以经济增长理论和消费理论为基础,建立分析框架,重点利用实证方法研究体育消费的特征及其与经济增长的关联。全方位、多层面、动态评估体育消费的经济增长效应,深刻揭示体育消费与经济增长的传导渠道和作用机理,最后提出相关政策建议。研究结果表明:(1)体育消费具有必然性、渐进性和多样性的特征。随着人们生活水平的不断变化,体育消费也呈现出相对消费模式变迁的几个阶段。(2)体育消费水平和消费结构两方面,总体看来,我国城镇居民体育消费主要集中在体育用品,体育服务、体育彩票、健身休闲、竞赛表演、场馆使用、中介培训等。(3)我国城镇居民体育消费的区域差异。选取我国东、中、西部的城镇居民体育消费总量,运用泰尔指数,测算区域间差异和区域内差异对我国城市体育消费总量总差异的贡献率。我国城镇居民体育消费的区域间差异较大,但此差异呈逐年缩小的趋势。这种失衡问题一个很重要的诱因在于经济发展的不平衡。(4)我国城镇居民体育消费总量对经济增长效应的定量测度。运用VAR模型的方法,选取1995-2013年的统计数据,实证分析体育消费的经济增长效应。其分析结果显示,体育消费每变动一个百分点,引起经济增长0.284个百分点,并且城镇居民体育消费对经济发展产生持续的影响。(5)体育消费对经济增长和经济发展方式转型升级有积极的促进作用。这种作用可以从微观层面和宏观层面进行分析,并通过因果累积循环机制强化其作用。
[Abstract]:Since 30 years of reform and opening-up, China's economic development has experienced a period from sustained high-speed growth to steady slowing and upgrading. With China's economy entering into the new normal, industrial structure optimization and upgrading, from investment-driven and factor-driven to innovation-driven, emerging industries emerge suddenly, sports industry has become a remarkable new economic growth point. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to tap the potential of residents' sports consumption in order to promote the development of sports industry, improve people's living standard and promote economic growth. Based on the current period of economic transformation and upgrading in China, the transformation of sports industry development mode and the transformation and upgrading of economic industrial structure, based on the theory of economic growth and the theory of consumption, this paper sets up an analytical framework. This paper focuses on using empirical methods to study the characteristics of sports consumption and its relationship with economic growth. All-round, multi-level, dynamic evaluation of the economic growth effect of sports consumption, deeply reveal the transmission channels and mechanism of sports consumption and economic growth, and finally put forward relevant policy recommendations. The results show that: (1) Sports consumption has the characteristics of inevitability, gradual development and diversity. With the continuous change of people's living standards, sports consumption also presents several stages of relative consumption pattern change. (2) the level of sports consumption and consumption structure, in general, appears. Sports consumption of urban residents in China is mainly concentrated in sports goods, sports services, sports lottery, fitness and leisure, competition performances, venue use, intermediary training and so on. (3) Regional differences in sports consumption of urban residents in China. The total sports consumption of urban residents in the east, middle and west of China is selected, and the contribution rate of regional difference and intra-regional difference to the total difference of urban sports consumption in China is calculated by using the Terre index. The regional difference of sports consumption of urban residents in China is quite different, but the difference is decreasing year by year. An important inducement of this imbalance is the imbalance of economic development. (4) the quantitative measurement of the effect of total sports consumption on economic growth of urban residents in China. By using the method of VAR model, the statistical data from 1995 to 2013 are selected to analyze the economic growth effect of sports consumption. The results of its analysis show that every change in sports consumption by one percentage point leads to an economic growth of 0.284 percentage points. And sports consumption of urban residents has a sustained impact on economic development. (5) Sports consumption has a positive role in promoting economic growth and the transformation and upgrading of economic development mode. This effect can be analyzed from the micro-level and macro-level, and strengthened by the causal cumulative cycle mechanism.
【学位授予单位】：武汉体育学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：G80-05
本文编号：2467726
[Abstract]:Since 30 years of reform and opening-up, China's economic development has experienced a period from sustained high-speed growth to steady slowing and upgrading. With China's economy entering into the new normal, industrial structure optimization and upgrading, from investment-driven and factor-driven to innovation-driven, emerging industries emerge suddenly, sports industry has become a remarkable new economic growth point. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to tap the potential of residents' sports consumption in order to promote the development of sports industry, improve people's living standard and promote economic growth. Based on the current period of economic transformation and upgrading in China, the transformation of sports industry development mode and the transformation and upgrading of economic industrial structure, based on the theory of economic growth and the theory of consumption, this paper sets up an analytical framework. This paper focuses on using empirical methods to study the characteristics of sports consumption and its relationship with economic growth. All-round, multi-level, dynamic evaluation of the economic growth effect of sports consumption, deeply reveal the transmission channels and mechanism of sports consumption and economic growth, and finally put forward relevant policy recommendations. The results show that: (1) Sports consumption has the characteristics of inevitability, gradual development and diversity. With the continuous change of people's living standards, sports consumption also presents several stages of relative consumption pattern change. (2) the level of sports consumption and consumption structure, in general, appears. Sports consumption of urban residents in China is mainly concentrated in sports goods, sports services, sports lottery, fitness and leisure, competition performances, venue use, intermediary training and so on. (3) Regional differences in sports consumption of urban residents in China. The total sports consumption of urban residents in the east, middle and west of China is selected, and the contribution rate of regional difference and intra-regional difference to the total difference of urban sports consumption in China is calculated by using the Terre index. The regional difference of sports consumption of urban residents in China is quite different, but the difference is decreasing year by year. An important inducement of this imbalance is the imbalance of economic development. (4) the quantitative measurement of the effect of total sports consumption on economic growth of urban residents in China. By using the method of VAR model, the statistical data from 1995 to 2013 are selected to analyze the economic growth effect of sports consumption. The results of its analysis show that every change in sports consumption by one percentage point leads to an economic growth of 0.284 percentage points. And sports consumption of urban residents has a sustained impact on economic development. (5) Sports consumption has a positive role in promoting economic growth and the transformation and upgrading of economic development mode. This effect can be analyzed from the micro-level and macro-level, and strengthened by the causal cumulative cycle mechanism.
【学位授予单位】：武汉体育学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：G80-05
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