全球价值链下中国增加值实际有效汇率的测算研究

发布时间：2019-06-01 18:51

【摘要】：根据商务部的统计资料显示,我国2015年全国进出口总值24.58万亿元,仍然是世界第一贸易大国。因此,我国商品价格是否具有竞争力,对我国商品的出口,乃至GDP的增长都具有重要的影响。然而,近年来,生产的垂直化分工正在不断加深。中间投入品的贸易总额已经占到世界贸易总额的三分之二,许多国家出口额中进口中间品的比重甚至超过了 30%,世界的出口额中增加值比重已经从19世纪七八十年代的85%左右降低到现在的70%左右。因此,随着全球价值链进程的不断深化,各国之间竞争内涵已经发生了改变,从传统的商品之间的竞争,变成了增加值的竞争,或者说,是同一个生产环节的所生产的附加值的竞争。因此,基于商品价格竞争力的统计指标——实际有效汇率已经不能很好地反映一个国家的价格竞争力。进而,对全球价值链下我国增加值实际有效汇率指标的测算研究对于提高我国的竞争实力、促进经济的增长具有重要的意义。本文首先梳理了实际有效汇率和Armington替代弹性的相关理论与文献,得出分析思路与框架。接下来,简要介绍了增加值实际有效汇率的分析框架,给出了实际有效汇率的具体表达式。然后,我们介绍了替代弹性估计方法,并且使用世界投入产出表,对生产替代弹性和需求替代弹性进行估计,为下面增加值实际有效汇率的测算奠定了基础。再次,我们对增加值实际有效汇率的测算结果分别从权重、价格因素和指数对比三个方面进行详细的分析。最后,给出了本文的结论。本文得出的主要结论如下:第一,替代弹性随着时间的变化会发生变化,消费替代弹性降幅较小,而生产替代弹性降幅较大。其中,反映增加值和中间投入品之间的替代弹性γ显著小于另外两个替代弹性。第二,对世界整体而言,国家之间在供给链上的联系更加紧密了,垂直化分工国程度也进一步加强了。相比于不同区域间的合作,同区域国家之间在生产环节相互之间的合作较为紧密。第三,我国在世界贸易影响力越来越大,而且贸易对象更加多元化,降低了对少数国家和地区的依赖。在垂直化分工方面,我国与韩国则相对于其他主要贸易伙伴更为紧密,而与其他主要贸易伙伴国家和地区合作的紧密程度变化相对差别不大。第四,我国与现有"一带一路"国家在垂直化分工方面互补性较弱,在"一带一路"的实施过程中,应加大与这些国家的生产互补程度,尽量减少同一个生产环节的竞争。第五,我们所测算的增加值实际有效汇率与传统的实际有效汇率差异非常明显,相对于权重差异,价格指数差异是造成上述差异的主要原因。而对于它自身的变化,则主要是由于汇率的变化造成的。但是,近年来增加值价格的持续增长也成为其上涨的重要原因,这一点值得重视。相比于已有的研究成果,本文在如下个三个方面进行了创新:第一,我们在国家汇总层面估计消费替代弹性和生产替代弹性,这本身就是之前的研究学者没有做过的事情。此外,我们还对时间段进行了分割,考察了替代弹性是否随着时间的变化而变化,并对其所反映的现象和经济含义进行了阐述。第二,相比原有分析框架较强的假定所得出的近似真实的增加值实际有效汇率,我们使用历史数据和替代弹性计算出真实的增加值有效汇率,从而使得计算出的各国增加值实际有效汇率结果具有了现实的指导意义。第三,基于测算的真实的增加值实际有效汇率,我们对中国进行了详细的经验分析,得出了许多有益的结论。
[Abstract]:According to the statistics of the Ministry of Commerce, China's total import and export value in 2015 is 24.58 trillion yuan, still the world's first largest trading country. Therefore, whether our country's commodity price is competitive, has an important influence on the export of our country's goods and even the growth of GDP. However, in recent years, the division of vertical division of production is deepening. The total trade volume of the intermediate input has accounted for two-thirds of the total world trade volume. The proportion of import intermediate products in many countries' exports is even more than 30%, and the proportion of the added value in the world's exports has been reduced from about 85% in the 1970s to about 70%. As a result, with the deepening of the global value chain process, the competition between countries has changed, and the competition from the traditional commodities has become the competition of the added value, or the competition of the added value of the same production link. Therefore, the price competitiveness of a country can not be well reflected in the actual effective exchange rate based on the statistical indicators of the competitiveness of commodity prices. Furthermore, the research on the actual effective exchange rate index of the added value of our country under the global value chain is of great significance to improve the competitive power of our country and to promote the growth of the economy. In this paper, the relevant theories and documents of effective exchange rate and Arrington's alternative elasticity are first combed, and the thinking and framework of the analysis are drawn. Next, the analysis framework of the actual effective exchange rate of the added value is briefly introduced, and the concrete expression of the actual effective exchange rate is given. Then, we introduce the alternative elastic estimation method, and use the world input-output table to estimate the substitute elasticity and demand replacement elasticity of the production, and lay a foundation for the calculation of the actual effective exchange rate of the added value. Thirdly, we analyze the results of the real effective exchange rate of the added value from three aspects: weight, price factor and index. Finally, the conclusion of this paper is given. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: first, the change of the alternative elasticity with time will change, the decrease of the substitution elasticity of the consumption is small, and the production substitution elasticity is greatly reduced. In which the substitution elastic force reflected between the added value and the intermediate input is significantly less than the other two alternative elasticity. Secondly, as a whole, the links between the countries on the supply chain are more closely linked, and the degree of the vertical division of labour is further strengthened. Cooperation between countries in the region is more closely linked to each other than in different regions. Third, our country has become more and more influential in the world, and the trade objects are more diversified, and the dependence on a small number of countries and regions is reduced. In terms of the vertical division of labour, my country and South Korea are more closely related to other major trading partners, and the close degree of cooperation with other major trading partner countries and regions is relatively modest. Fourth, our country has a weak complementarity with the existing one-and-one country in the vertical division of labour, and in the implementation of the Belt and Road, the production and complementarity of these countries should be increased to minimize the competition in the same production chain. Fifthly, the difference between the actual effective exchange rate of the added value and the traditional effective exchange rate is very obvious, and the difference between the price index and the price index is the main cause of the difference. The change of the exchange rate is mainly due to the change of the exchange rate. However, the increase in value-added price in recent years has also become an important reason for its rise, which is worth paying attention to. Compared with the existing research results, this paper has made the innovation in the following three aspects: first, we estimate the consumption substitution elasticity and the production substitution elasticity at the national summary level, which is the fact that the previous research scholar has not done so. In addition, we divided the time period, and examined whether the substitute elasticity changed with time, and explained the phenomenon and the economic meaning. Secondly, compared with the assumption that the original analysis framework is stronger than the actual effective exchange rate, we use the historical data and the substitute elasticity to calculate the real value-added effective exchange rate, So that the actual effective exchange rate result of the calculated value-added value of the countries has practical guiding significance. Third, based on the real effective exchange rate of the real value added, we have carried out a detailed analysis of China's experience and concluded many useful conclusions.
【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F832.6;F752.6

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