基于系统动力学的中水回用技术全寿命周期成本效益研究
发布时间：2019-06-07 14:38
【摘要】：“十三五”规划纲要提出:全面推进节水型社会建设。中水回用是建设节水型社会的重要举措,它已成为开源节流、减轻水体污染、改善生态环境、缓解水资源供需矛盾和促进社会经济可持续发展的重要途径。但是目前全国推广范围不够广泛,基于有些人认为中水回用技术效益不明显的观点,本文运用系统动力学的相关理论和借助Vesim-PLE软件分析工具,建立了能够反映中水回用技术全寿命周期成本效益系统结构和功能的SD模型,以甘肃省某高校新校区的中水回用项目为例,对其全寿命周期成本效益进行了模拟预测,从而直观地看到中水回用技术的净收益。同时,通过改变不同参数值或组合进行了情景分析。论文主要研究结论如下:(1)运用全寿命周期理论,将中水回用技术的全寿命周期划分为四个阶段,对其成本、效益构成进行了分解并构建了其量化的数学模型。(2)从确定中水回用技术全寿命周期成本效益系统的研究目的和边界入手,将系统分为全寿命周期成本和全寿命周期效益两个子系统,在结构分析的基础上建立了整个系统的SD模型流图,并通过编写结构方程将变量之间的关系定量化表达。(3)针对甘肃省某高校新校区中水回用项目进行实证研究,通过对甘肃社会经济发展和项目运营10年来统计数据的整理、分析和计算,确定了模型中参数值。(4)通过系统的运行,预测该项目全寿命周期成本效益。结果表明:从学校的角度考虑,全寿命周期动态净效益为1540.68万元,静态净效益为7215.37万元,静态投资回收期为9年(含建设期);如果从全社会的角度考虑,全寿命周期动态净效益为5207.28万元,静态净效益为15806.3万元,分别是从学校角度考虑全寿命净效益的3.38倍和2.19倍,可见中水回用技术间接经济效益十分显著,中水回用技术对于社会的贡献是巨大的。另外,通过模拟得到该校中水回用工程含设施投资补偿费的中水运行成本为0.952元/m3,不含设施投资补偿费的中水运行成本为0.525元/m3。(5)通过改变不同参数值或组合进行了情景分析。对投融资决策四种方案的情景分析结果表明:计划还款期比自筹资金对全寿命周期成本效益影响大,相对来说,计划还款期是敏感性因素,从而对学校投选择方案1进行了合理的解释。对市政水价增长率和年工资增长率的不同赋值及日常不同检修维护程度进行情景分析,结果表明:未来水价的变化和日常检修维护程度是影响项目全寿命周期净效益的重要因素,年工资增长率不是系统的敏感性因素。
[Abstract]:The outline of the 13th five-year Plan puts forward that we should comprehensively promote the construction of a water-saving society. Reuse of reclaimed water is an important measure to build a water-saving society. It has become an important way to open up sources and cut expenditure, reduce water pollution, improve ecological environment, alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources and promote sustainable social and economic development. However, at present, the scope of national promotion is not wide enough. Based on the view that some people think that the technical benefit of reclaimed water reuse is not obvious, this paper uses the relevant theory of system dynamics and Vesim-PLE software analysis tools. A SD model is established, which can reflect the structure and function of the whole life cycle cost-benefit system of reclaimed water reuse technology. taking the reclaimed water reuse project in the new campus of a university in Gansu Province as an example, the life cycle cost-benefit of the reclaimed water reuse technology is simulated and predicted. Thus, the net income of reclaimed water reuse technology can be seen intuitively. At the same time, the situation analysis is carried out by changing different parameter values or combinations. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) the whole life cycle of reclaimed water reuse technology is divided into four stages by using the whole life cycle theory, and the cost of the whole life cycle is divided into four stages. The benefit composition is decomposed and its quantitative mathematical model is constructed. (2) starting with the research purpose and boundary of the whole life cycle cost-benefit system of reclaimed water reuse technology, The system is divided into two subsystems: life cycle cost and life cycle benefit. Based on the structural analysis, the SD model flow diagram of the whole system is established. The relationship between variables is quantitatively expressed by compiling structural equation. (3) an empirical study is carried out on the reclaimed water reuse project in the new campus of a university in Gansu Province, and the statistical data of social and economic development and project operation in Gansu Province in the past 10 years are sorted out. The parameter values in the model are determined by analysis and calculation. (4) the cost-benefit of the whole life cycle of the project is predicted through the operation of the system. The results show that from the school point of view, the dynamic net benefit of the whole life cycle is 15.4068 million yuan, the static net benefit is 72.1537 million yuan, and the static investment payback period is 9 years (including the construction period). From the point of view of the whole society, the dynamic net benefit of the whole life cycle is 52.0728 million yuan, and the static net benefit is 158.063 million yuan, which is 3.38 times and 2.19 times of the net benefit of the whole life cycle considered from the school point of view, respectively. It can be seen that the indirect economic benefits of reclaimed water reuse technology are very significant, and the reclaimed water reuse technology contributes greatly to the society. In addition, through simulation, it is found that the operation cost of reclaimed water including facility investment compensation fee is 0.952 yuan / m3. The operating cost of reclaimed water without facility investment compensation is 0.525 yuan / m ~ 3. (5) the scenario analysis is carried out by changing different parameter values or combinations. The results of situational analysis of four kinds of investment and financing decisions show that the planned repayment period has a greater impact on the cost-effectiveness of the whole life cycle than the self-financing, and the planned repayment period is relatively sensitive. Thus, the school investment option 1 is explained reasonably. The different assignment of municipal water price growth rate and annual wage growth rate and the different maintenance degree of daily maintenance are analyzed. The results show that the change of water price and the degree of daily maintenance are the important factors that affect the net benefit of the whole life cycle of the project, and the annual wage growth rate is not the sensitive factor of the system.
【学位授予单位】：兰州交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：X703
本文编号：2494873
[Abstract]:The outline of the 13th five-year Plan puts forward that we should comprehensively promote the construction of a water-saving society. Reuse of reclaimed water is an important measure to build a water-saving society. It has become an important way to open up sources and cut expenditure, reduce water pollution, improve ecological environment, alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources and promote sustainable social and economic development. However, at present, the scope of national promotion is not wide enough. Based on the view that some people think that the technical benefit of reclaimed water reuse is not obvious, this paper uses the relevant theory of system dynamics and Vesim-PLE software analysis tools. A SD model is established, which can reflect the structure and function of the whole life cycle cost-benefit system of reclaimed water reuse technology. taking the reclaimed water reuse project in the new campus of a university in Gansu Province as an example, the life cycle cost-benefit of the reclaimed water reuse technology is simulated and predicted. Thus, the net income of reclaimed water reuse technology can be seen intuitively. At the same time, the situation analysis is carried out by changing different parameter values or combinations. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) the whole life cycle of reclaimed water reuse technology is divided into four stages by using the whole life cycle theory, and the cost of the whole life cycle is divided into four stages. The benefit composition is decomposed and its quantitative mathematical model is constructed. (2) starting with the research purpose and boundary of the whole life cycle cost-benefit system of reclaimed water reuse technology, The system is divided into two subsystems: life cycle cost and life cycle benefit. Based on the structural analysis, the SD model flow diagram of the whole system is established. The relationship between variables is quantitatively expressed by compiling structural equation. (3) an empirical study is carried out on the reclaimed water reuse project in the new campus of a university in Gansu Province, and the statistical data of social and economic development and project operation in Gansu Province in the past 10 years are sorted out. The parameter values in the model are determined by analysis and calculation. (4) the cost-benefit of the whole life cycle of the project is predicted through the operation of the system. The results show that from the school point of view, the dynamic net benefit of the whole life cycle is 15.4068 million yuan, the static net benefit is 72.1537 million yuan, and the static investment payback period is 9 years (including the construction period). From the point of view of the whole society, the dynamic net benefit of the whole life cycle is 52.0728 million yuan, and the static net benefit is 158.063 million yuan, which is 3.38 times and 2.19 times of the net benefit of the whole life cycle considered from the school point of view, respectively. It can be seen that the indirect economic benefits of reclaimed water reuse technology are very significant, and the reclaimed water reuse technology contributes greatly to the society. In addition, through simulation, it is found that the operation cost of reclaimed water including facility investment compensation fee is 0.952 yuan / m3. The operating cost of reclaimed water without facility investment compensation is 0.525 yuan / m ~ 3. (5) the scenario analysis is carried out by changing different parameter values or combinations. The results of situational analysis of four kinds of investment and financing decisions show that the planned repayment period has a greater impact on the cost-effectiveness of the whole life cycle than the self-financing, and the planned repayment period is relatively sensitive. Thus, the school investment option 1 is explained reasonably. The different assignment of municipal water price growth rate and annual wage growth rate and the different maintenance degree of daily maintenance are analyzed. The results show that the change of water price and the degree of daily maintenance are the important factors that affect the net benefit of the whole life cycle of the project, and the annual wage growth rate is not the sensitive factor of the system.
【学位授予单位】：兰州交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：X703
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