电力上市公司投资与价值评估相关性研究

发布时间：2019-07-09 09:05

【摘要】：电力行业是对国民经济发展和改善人民生活影响巨大的根本性行业,近年来,我国经济的发展使得对电的需求量日益扩大,我国电力建设投资规模持续保持较快增长,电网投资规模增长持续加速。目前,电力行业仍旧处于垄断阶段,电力市场对内和对外的开放程度均不高,竞争不够充分,使得行业的整体赢利能力较强,但发电设备利用率低与投资不断上升形成鲜明对比。企业资产大幅增加,盈利水平却下降了,说明资产的效益没有得到完全发挥,存在资产配置不恰当、资源浪费严重的情况。与此同时,企业的现金结存量大,资金大量闲置,企业的资产质量、盈利能力有待提高。正确的投资决策是增强企业盈利能力,改善企业资产质量及创造价值的重要手段。本文致力于探索电力上市公司投资与企业价值之间的相关性,围绕如何增加企业价值,首先对行业特点及前景做了概括性的介绍,对电力行业企业的投资情况、流动资金情况进行统计分析。其次针对电力行业的独特性分析不同的投资决策对电力企业资产质量、投资收益能力的影响,然后通过观察公司投资决策行为及统计得到的大量数据建立回归模型,找到了公司投资现金流与公司剩余收益的相关关系。最后使用剩余收益模型,计算不同投资额的现金流入可能带给公司未来剩余收益的价值,进而获得公司价值的估计,得到投资额与企业价值的函数关系,使我们对投资给电力企业价值增值的度量更接近真实情况,以帮助企业在投资决策时选择更优的方案。本文所研究的成果可用于调整公司的投资决策及资产组合配置,使企业在保持核心主业竞争力的基础上,适当调整公司的业务组合,获得更大投资效益,达到价值增值,为减少不必要的过度投资,防范风险,推动我国电力产业健康可持续发展提供决策参考。
[Abstract]:Electric power industry is a fundamental industry which has great influence on the development of national economy and the improvement of people's life. In recent years, the demand for electricity is expanding day by day with the development of economy in our country. The investment scale of electric power construction in our country continues to grow rapidly, and the investment scale of power grid continues to accelerate. At present, the power industry is still in the monopoly stage, the opening degree of the power market is not high, the competition is not sufficient, so that the overall profitability of the industry is strong, but the low utilization rate of power generation equipment is in sharp contrast with the rising investment. The assets of enterprises increase sharply, but the profit level decreases, which indicates that the benefits of assets have not been brought into full play, and there are inappropriate allocation of assets and serious waste of resources. At the same time, the cash balance of enterprises is large, a large number of funds are idle, the quality of assets and profitability of enterprises need to be improved. Correct investment decision is an important means to enhance the profitability of enterprises, improve the quality of enterprise assets and create value. This paper is devoted to exploring the correlation between investment and enterprise value of electric power listed companies. First of all, it makes a general introduction to the characteristics and prospects of the industry, and makes a statistical analysis of the investment situation and liquidity of electric power industry enterprises around how to increase the value of enterprises. Secondly, according to the uniqueness of the power industry, this paper analyzes the influence of different investment decisions on the asset quality and investment return ability of electric power enterprises, and then establishes a regression model by observing the investment decision behavior of the company and a large number of statistical data, and finds out the correlation between the investment cash flow and the residual income of the company. Finally, the residual income model is used to calculate the value that the cash inflow of different investment may bring to the future residual income of the company, and then the estimation of the value of the company is obtained, and the functional relationship between the investment amount and the enterprise value is obtained, so that our measurement of the value increment of the investment to the electric power enterprise is closer to the real situation, so as to help the enterprise choose a better scheme in the investment decision. The results studied in this paper can be used to adjust the investment decision and asset portfolio allocation of the company, so that enterprises can properly adjust the business portfolio of the company on the basis of maintaining the competitiveness of the core main industry, obtain greater investment benefits, achieve value appreciation, and provide decision-making reference for reducing unnecessary overinvestment, preventing risks and promoting the healthy and sustainable development of China's electric power industry.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F275

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