中国减排成本及减排政策模拟：CEEPA模型的拓展研究

发布时间：2018-01-14 04:25

本文关键词：中国减排成本及减排政策模拟：CEEPA模型的拓展研究　出处：《中国科学技术大学》2012年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：减排成本是影响温室气体减排活动的关键因素之一,目前在国际谈判中各国对全球减排责任的分担争论不休,而这些都是基于本国减排成本的慎重考虑。随着经济的发展和能源消耗的增长,中国的温室气体减排压力日益增加,中国的减排活动和减排政策问题已成为国际应对气候变化政策研究的热点之一。本文基于一般均衡理论,考虑到中国的经济和能源市场特征,并结合减排成本和减排政策模拟的相关问题,在参与开发中国能源与环境政策分析模型(CEEPA)基础上进行相关扩展和补充,利用CEEPA模型对中国的二氧化碳减排成本进行分析和探讨,开展了相关减排政策的模拟与分析,以期为中国减排政策的制定提供科学的信息支持和决策参考。概括起来,研究工作的主要创新包括以下几方面： (1)将中国的能源定价机制引入到所构建的中国能源与环境政策分析模型CEEPA;运用该CEEPA模型,对中国不同能源定价机制情景下的边际减排成本进行模拟；并分析不同能源定价机制情景下国际能源价格波动对中国边际减排成本的影响。考虑到现有的能源定价机制,即政府对成品油、电力和天然气定价的管制与指导,以及能源市场特别是定价机制的市场化改革,分别设定了四种定价机制改革方式。通过对比分析不同定价机制下我国边际减排成本的变化,以及国际能源价格波动对我国边际减排成本的影响,从而揭示能源定价机制对我国边际减排成本的影响。结果表明,我国的边际减排成本对电力和成品油的定价方式比较敏感,放开这两种能源的定价特别是电价机制的市场化改革能推动我国边际减排成本的有效降低。不同能源的国际价格对我国边际减排成本的影响呈现很大的不同,国际能源价格上涨和下降对我国边际减排成本的影响具有对称性。在2007年经济结构和进出口结构的假设基础上,可以得到如下结论：无论定价机制改革如何推进,国际原油价格上涨都会降低我国的边际减排成本,国际原油价格下降都会拉高我国的边际减排成本；国际煤炭价格上涨则都会拉高我国的边际减排成本,国际煤炭价格下降则都会降低我国的边际减排成本。而国际成品油价格上涨只在成品油定价不受管制时才有利于我国边际减排成本的下降；国际天然气波动对我国边际减排成本影响甚微。 (2)运用CEEPA模型,分析了主要减排部门的边际减排成本特征,并从经济全局成本有效的角度,分析了一定减排约束下,中国主要排放部门宜分担的减排责任及其减排行为。特别地,考虑到我国目前能源市场的特征及其面临的市场化改革,本研究将能源定价机制改革对不同部门的边际减排成本、宜分担的减排责任以及减排行为可能产生的影响也考虑在内。研究发现,定价机制改革会使一些部门尤其是电力和运输仓储部门的减排成本发生较明显的变化；基于排放责任进行减排责任部门分担是有助于实现整体成本有效的,但对煤炭、电力和运输仓储部门宜做出调整；随着减排目标的增加,应增加运输仓储部门的减排配额比例,减少煤炭部门的减排配额比例；短期内不宜对各部门尤其是煤炭部门设置较高的减排目标；从全局经济成本有效的角度考虑,未来在放开电力价格管制时应小幅增加电力部门的减排配额比例,同时需考虑采取相应的措施刺激电力部门节约能源和优化发电结构来实现减排目标。 (3)运用CEEPA模型,分析了中国建立碳排放权交易制度所面临的“初始配额分配方法的选择问题”。根据目前主流的三类初始配额分配方法,并且考虑到各类分配方法中围绕部门/企业层面不同的分配原则和配额收益利用方式,本文设计了9种分配模式,利用CEEPA模型分别模拟不同的分配模式下实现一定减排目标对我国社会经济造成的影响。研究发现,无论初始配额如何分配都不能改变减排对我国经济发展的负面影响；而选择不同的分配模式将使得这些影响的程度千差万别。从减排对宏观经济以及行业产出和资本收益的影响来看,拍卖初始配额并把收益用来降低生产间接税能在一定程度上缓解这些负面影响；而采用仅针对能源密集贸易型部门免费获得配额的机制可以缓解减排给主要贸易部门产品国际竞争力带来的负面影响；如果更加关注民生方面,拍卖初始配额并把收益按人口比例直接转移给居民将是有效的选择,该机制使得减排对农村居民收入和福利的影响得到很大的改善,并且有利于缩小城乡居民收入差距。 (4)通过在CEEPA模型中引入RD投资、知识资本及其要素收益分配等一系列活动的描述完成对内生技术进步的建模。技术进步可以影响能源的投入和使用,影响碳排放水平,进而影响减排成本和减排政策的效果与社会经济成本。而技术进步不是自动获得的,需要投入和花费一定的成本,因此促进技术进步的政策会进一步影响投资和经济发展,影响能源消耗和碳排放。运用包含内生技术进步的CEEPA的模型,探讨了利用碳交易市场实现一定减排目标对技术进步的影响,以及技术进步促进政策(RD补贴政策)对技术进步、碳排放及经济的影响。进一步分析了在内生技术进步框架下,利用碳交易市场实现一定减排目标所带来的社会经济成本,特别是RD补贴政策通过促进技术进步使得这些社会经济成本发生了怎样的变化。结果表明,以碳交易为代表的减排政策可以诱导技术进步；RD补贴政策短期内可以促进C02减排,长期却导致碳排放增加；RD补贴政策可以有效降低碳交易的社会经济成本,且对碳市场均衡价格的影响不大。本文的研究工作,有助于进一步加深对我国二氧化碳减排成本的认识和理解,为政府制定相关减排政策提供科学的信息支持和决策参考。
[Abstract]:Cost reduction is one of the key factors affecting greenhouse gas emission reduction activities, currently in negotiations in the international debate on global emissions countries share responsibility, and these are their abatement costs based on careful consideration. With the development of economy and the increase of energy consumption, greenhouse gas emission reduction Chinese pressure increasing, the emission reduction activities and China the emission reduction policy has become one of the hot research of international climate change policy.
In this paper, based on the general equilibrium theory, considering the economic and energy market characteristics China, combined with the related problems cost reduction and emission reduction policy simulation, involved in the development of energy and environmental policy Chinese analysis model (CEEPA) based on the relevant extension and supplement, using the CEEPA model of carbon dioxide emission reduction cost of Chinese are analyzed and discussed, carry out the simulation and analysis of relevant policy, in order to provide information support and decision-making reference for the formulation of scientific Chinese emission reduction policies.
In summary, the main innovations of the research work include the following aspects:
(1) the China energy pricing mechanism is introduced to Chinese energy and environmental policy analysis model constructed by CEEPA; using the CEEPA model, the scenario Chinese different energy pricing mechanism under the marginal abatement costs are simulated; and to analyze the impact of the international energy price fluctuation situation of different energy pricing mechanism of China marginal abatement costs considered. To the existing energy pricing mechanism, namely the government regulation and guidance to the refined oil, electricity and natural gas pricing, and energy market especially the pricing mechanism of the market reform, setting up the four kinds of pricing mechanism reform. Changes of marginal abatement costs in China through the comparative analysis of different pricing mechanism, as well as energy prices the fluctuation of international influence on marginal abatement costs in China, so as to reveal the influence of energy pricing mechanism for marginal abatement costs in China. The results show that the marginal reduction in China The cost of electricity and refined oil pricing is more sensitive, the release of the two kinds of energy pricing especially market-oriented pricing mechanism reform can promote effectively reduce the marginal abatement costs in our country. The international price of different energy vary greatly influence on the marginal abatement cost of our country, the international energy price increases and decreases with symmetry the influence of marginal abatement costs in China. In 2007, the economic structure and the import and export structure based on the hypothesis, we can get the following conclusions: no matter how to promote the reform of the pricing mechanism, the international crude oil prices will reduce China's marginal abatement costs, the decline in international crude oil prices will drive China's marginal abatement cost; international coal prices have stayed high in China's marginal abatement costs, the international coal price decline will reduce the marginal abatement cost and international oil. Price rise is only conducive to the reduction of marginal cost of emission reduction in China when the price of refined oil is not regulated. International natural gas fluctuation has little effect on marginal cost of emission reduction in China.
(2) the use of CEEPA model, analyzes the main characteristics of the marginal abatement cost reduction departments, and from the overall economic cost effective point of view, analysis of some emission reduction constraints, China main emission reduction responsibility and authorities should share the reduction behavior. In particular, taking into account the market-oriented reform of China's current energy market and its characteristics in this study, the energy pricing mechanism reform of different sectors of the marginal abatement costs, should share the responsibility for emissions reductions and the effect of emission reduction behavior may have also taken into account. The study found that the pricing mechanism reform will make some departments especially electricity and transportation and warehousing Department cost change obviously; based on the responsibility of emission reduction the responsible departments share is helpful to realize the overall cost effective, but for coal, electricity and transportation departments should make adjustments; with the increase of emission reduction targets That should increase the transportation and warehousing sector emissions quota proportion, reduce the coal sector emissions quota proportion; especially in the short term should not be set high coal sector emissions reduction targets for each department; considering the global economic cost effective perspective in the future liberalization of electricity price controls should be a slight increase in the power sector emission reduction quota proportion, also need to to achieve emission reduction targets, take corresponding measures to stimulate the power sector energy saving and optimization of power structure.
(3) the use of CEEPA model, analyzes the China carbonemissions trading system faced the initial quota allocation method selection problem. According to the current mainstream three initial quota allocation method, and taking into account the various allocation methods around the Department / distribution principle and quota profit enterprise level using different methods, this paper design 9 kinds of distribution mode, distribution patterns were simulated under the different effect of certain targets of China's social economy caused by the CEEPA model. The study found that, regardless of the initial allocation of emission reduction quotas cannot change the negative impact on China's economic development; and the choice of different distribution mode will make the extent of these effects vary from the point of view of emission reduction. The macro economy and the impact of industry output and capital gains, and to return to the initial auction quotas to reduce the production of indirect tax in a The extent to alleviate the negative impact; and used only for energy intensive trade sector free quota mechanism can alleviate the negative impact of emission reduction brought to the major sector of trade products international competitiveness; if more attention to people's livelihood, and the benefits of the initial auction quota according to the proportion of the population directly transferred to the residents will be effective in selecting the the mechanism of emission reduction are greatly improved on the impact of rural residents' income and welfare, and is conducive to narrowing the urban-rural income gap.
(4) the CEEPA model introduced by RD investment, a series of activities of intellectual capital elements and the income distribution to describe the complete modeling and technological progress of the technical progress can affect the investment and the use of energy, affects carbon emissions, thereby affecting the effect of cost reduction and emission reduction policy and social economic cost and technology. Progress is not automatic, the need to invest and spend a certain cost, thus promoting the progress of technology policy will further affect investment and economic development, energy consumption and carbon emissions. Using the included endogenous technological progress of the CEEPA model, discussed the implementation of certain targets on the impact of technological progress by using the carbon trading market, and technology to promote the progress of policy (RD subsidies) on technological progress, carbon emissions and economic effect. Further analysis of the endogenous technological progress under the framework of the carbon trading market The social and economic costs brought about to achieve certain targets, especially RD subsidy policies to promote technological progress through the social and economic costs of what has happened. The results show that the carbon trading as the representative of the emission reduction policy can induce technological progress; RD subsidy policy in the short term can promote C02 emission reduction, but in the long run lead to increased carbon emissions RD; subsidy policy can effectively reduce the social cost of carbon trading, and the impact on the carbon market equilibrium price is unlikely.
The research work in this paper will help further deepen our understanding and understanding of CO2 emission reduction cost in China, and provide scientific information support and decision-making reference for the government to formulate relevant emission reduction policies.

【学位授予单位】：中国科学技术大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：X196;F124;F224

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