基于数据分析的项目决策方法实践研究

发布时间：2018-01-18 08:31

本文关键词：基于数据分析的项目决策方法实践研究　出处：《上海交通大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：决策是项目管理的核心，优质的决策更是项目成败的决定性因素，而严谨的数据分析提高了决策的质量。但如今在项目中直觉决策与经验决策的过多使用，大大增加了项目风险。针对项目管理中的决策，本文所作的工作主要有：第一，本文综述了决策在项目管理中的重要性，并介绍分析了三种项目管理决策类型，重点推崇其中的科学决策，最后对项目管理决策的现状做了总结与阐述。第二，本文探讨了在项目各生命周期环节中存在的重要决策内容，然后进一步分析在决策中数据支持的重要性，明确了项目的成功主要取决于决策的成功，，决策的成功取决于数据分析的准确性。并对如何加强项目团队的数据分析能力提供了建议。第三，本文构建了一套基于数据分析的项目决策方法，该方法以决策框架模板与决策流程为基础并结合多目标决策与决策树这两种成熟且常用的数据分析模型以及四种常用的决策准则，该决策方法是一种科学的结构化、流程化的决策方法，为项目管理者的决策提供了科学的可靠的决策依据。第四，本文通过对电视台媒资内容管理平台项目中方案选型决策的实践应用案例，详细阐述了该决策方法的使用过程，并与电视台原来的决策方式进行了分析比较，从而证明该方法的有效性和科学性，该方法是能够帮助项目管理者系统化的收集整理尽可能完整的决策要素，然后从不同的视角思考问题，从而较大提高决策的正确性和项目成功率。
[Abstract]:Decision making is the core of project management, high quality decision is the decisive factor of project success or failure, and rigorous data analysis improves the quality of decision making. It greatly increases the risk of the project. In view of the decision in project management, the main work of this paper is: First, this paper summarizes the importance of decision-making in project management, and introduces and analyzes three types of project management decision-making, focusing on the scientific decision-making. Finally, the status quo of project management decision is summarized and expounded. Secondly, this paper discusses the important decision-making content in the life cycle of the project, and then further analyzes the importance of data support in the decision-making. It is clear that the success of the project mainly depends on the success of the decision. The success of the decision depends on the accuracy of the data analysis and provides advice on how to strengthen the data analysis capability of the project team. Thirdly, this paper constructs a set of project decision methods based on data analysis. The method is based on decision framework template and decision process, and combines two mature and common data analysis models, multi-objective decision making and decision tree, as well as four commonly used decision criteria. This decision method is a kind of scientific and structured, process decision method, which provides a scientific and reliable decision basis for project managers. 4th, this paper elaborates the use process of this decision method through the practical application case of the scheme selection decision in the media content management platform project of TV station. And compared with the original decision-making mode of TV station to prove the effectiveness and scientific nature of the method, this method is able to help project managers to systematically collect and collate as complete as possible decision-making elements. Then thinking from different angles of view, thus greatly improve the correctness of decision-making and project success rate.
【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：C934

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