与农业有关的政府行为的宏观经济分析

发布时间：2018-01-19 23:56

本文关键词： 农业有关政府为的宏观经济分析　出处：《对外经济贸易大学》2002年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】： 本论文主要是对与农业有关的政府行为进行分析，在分析方法上进行探讨。在宏观经济分析的层次上利用一些数理模型对政府行为与农业经济发展的影响进行分析论证。在本论文中所运用的数学方法，主要是变分法和最优控制理论。这些数学方法主要来自于动态经济学分析的方法范围内。尤其是在利用最优控制理论当中主要利用了Hamilton方程。由于使用Hamilton方程对分析资本的时间累积路径提供了一种便捷的求解方法。本论文在对与农业有关的政府行为分析中利用了蒙代尔—弗莱明模型，在确定性条件下的投资模型，Ramsey—Cass—Koopmans模型。我们由于考虑到问题的分析方便对实际问题作了一些假定例如在蒙代尔一弗莱明模型中我们加入了影响因素的调节参数，在对农业部门的分析中对生产函数规定了所要满足的古典假设条件，并在实际分析中结合大国与小国模型进行了分类。由于学术水平有限，在分析中如果进行实际的经济仿真将涉及到大量的计量与高深的经济学知识，所以这有待于在以后的学习工作中做进一步的研究探讨。本论文水平有限望各位专家学者批评指正。论文的在结构上分为三部分：第一部分，第一章农业发展与宏观经济分析中涉及经济变量与政策因素。在这一章主要对模型分析中所涉及的经济变量进行一定的分析。在本章主要介绍了实际汇率因素，利率因素，政策性因素，结构调整因素，税收因素。第二部分，第二章农业发展与宏观经济分析中理论模型。这一部分为下面问题分析提供了分析的模型。第一节对蒙代尔一弗莱明模型的小国模型理论和两国模型理论进行了介绍。第二节介绍了本论文分析中使用的确定性条件下的投资模型。第三节对Ramsey—Cass—Koopmans模型进行了简单了介绍。第三部分，这是本论文的核心部分。前两个部分为第三部分核心的分析提供了分析所需的经济变量与模型工具。本部分有四章内容。第三章一国内部政府行为刑‘农业经济发展的影响。这一章主要利用蒙代尔一弗莱明模型对政府行为对农业经济发展的影响进行了分析。由于经济体中不光只有农业经济，所以在分析中为了简化分析豹复杂性，以便得出更直接的结果，引入了调整参数，使得政府行为对经济的影响主要通过农业经济的变化表现出来。第一节，我们利用小国模型进行分析，在固定汇率和浮动汇率下，分别对货币政策，财政政策以及贸易限制政策进行了分析。并对出小国模型下，政府行为对农业经济发展影响的建议性的结论： l、货币政策：在浮动汇率下，中央银行可以通过提高货币供给，使得农业经济总产出增加。然而在固定汇率下，中央银行的货币政策由于套利行为的存在使得对农业经济的影响为零。 2、财政政策：在浮动汇率下，，政府通过减少对农业部门的税收或者增加农业部门的购买来刺激国内对农业经济的支出，但是政策的效果是无效的。在固定汇率下，政府财政扩张的行为使得农业经济的总收人增加。 3、贸易政策：在浮动汇率下，由于汇率下降出口减少的负面影响使得对农业经济的影响为零。在固定汇率下，对农业经济进口的限制措施，却起到了促过农业经济收入增加的作用。在本节结合我国的实际进行了分析。我们分析的实际包括汇率的有管理的浮动和政策的时滞效应。对于货币政策来说，货币供应量的增加将对人民币有要求汇率上升的压力，但是由于管理汇率和政策调整的时滞性，可能由于在外汇市场的套利活动对货币政策的实际效果造成一定的削弱作用。对于财政政策，由于汇率的管理特点，在一定程度上可以通过扩张性的财政政策增加农业收入。对于贸易政策来说，限制农产品的进口可以有效的增加农产品的相对净出口，但是由于在较长时间内人民币汇率将趋向反映真实汇率，净出口将减少。第二节，我们对两国模型的分析，主要集中在对“以邻为壑”问题的分析上。通过这一节的分析，我们主要想表达，在开放经济下，与农业有关的政府行为要求注意国际的合作与协作。第四章，政府行为对农业经济发展的定性分析在这一章我们较多的使用了动态经济学的分析方法。首先我们从政府对农业经济部门的投资行为进行分析。在分析中，我们强调投资总量存在一个最优的数值。也就是说对农业部门进行投资，并不是总会带来一定的生产力的提高以及产量的增加。第一节，我们首先对不带调整成本的投资模型进行分析。模型中，要求实现农业部门利润最大化。在本节我们利用变分法对投资模型进行求解。但是我们确定的资本存量时间路径不具备动态特征。由子农业部门的资本存量的增长率不可能无穷大。所以政府对农业部门投资有一个最优路径的问题，即政府将以多大的投资增长
[Abstract]:This paper is mainly on the government behavior related to agriculture are analyzed, discussed in the analysis method. In the macro economic analysis on the level of the influence of some mathematical models of government behavior and agricultural economic development are analyzed. The mathematical method used in this paper, mainly variational method and optimal control the scope of these methods. The theory mainly from the mathematical method of dynamic economic analysis. Especially in the use of optimal control theory by using Hamilton equation. By using the Hamilton equation of time analysis of capital accumulation path provides a convenient method to solve the problem. This thesis focuses on the analysis of government behavior related to agriculture in use the Mundell Fleming model, investment model under the condition of certainty, Ramsey - Cass - Koopmans model. We analysis due to considering the problems of convenience As for some assumptions such as in the Mundell Fleming model we joined the influence factors in adjusting the parameters, the classical assumptions on the analysis of the agricultural sector in the production function to meet the provisions, and in the actual analysis, combining the model of large and small countries are classified. Due to limited academic level, in the analysis if the actual economic simulation will involve a large number of advanced measurement and knowledge economics, further study to do so it needs to be in the future work and study. The limited level of hope experts and scholars criticize it.
The structure of the paper is divided into three parts:
The first part, economic variables and policy factors involved in the first chapter analyses the agricultural development and macro economy. In this part mainly involved in the analysis of economic variables of the model were analyzed. This chapter mainly introduces the actual exchange rate, interest rate factors, policy factors, structure factors, tax factors.
The second part, the second chapter agriculture development and macro economic analysis provides a theoretical model. Analysis model of this part is the following problems. The first section of the Mundell Fleming model of small model theory and two model theory are introduced. The second section introduces the investment model under the condition of determined using in this paper third. A simple introduction of Ramsey - Cass - Koopmans model.
The third part is the core of this paper. The first two parts are the third parts. The core analysis provides the economic variables and model tools needed to analyze. There are four chapters in this part.
The third chapter is the influence of the government behavior punishment in the domestic government 'agricultural economic development. This chapter mainly uses Mundell
A Fleming model is an analysis of the influence of government behavior on the development of agricultural economy.
Only the agricultural economy, so in the analysis in order to simplify the analysis of the leopard complexity, in order to draw a more direct knot.
The effect of government behavior on the economy is mainly through the changes in the agricultural economy.
Come out now.
In the first section, we use the small country model to analyze them at fixed and floating exchange rates, respectively.
The analysis of monetary policy, fiscal policy and trade restriction policy. And to the small country model, the government
The suggested results of the impact of behavior on the development of agricultural economy:
L, monetary policy: at a floating exchange rate, the central bank can increase the supply of money by the central bank to make agriculture
The total output of the economy increases. However, under the fixed exchange rate, the monetary policy of the central bank is due to the deposit of arbitrage.
The impact on the agricultural economy is zero.
2, fiscal policy: in a floating exchange rate, the government can reduce taxes on the agricultural sector or increase agriculture.
The purchase of the industry to stimulate the domestic expenditure on the agricultural economy, but the effect of the policy is ineffective.
Under the fixed exchange rate, the government's fiscal expansion will increase the total income of the agricultural economy.
3, trade policy: under the floating exchange rate, the negative impact of the decrease in the export rate of the exchange rate makes the farmers
The influence of the industry economy is zero. At the fixed exchange rate, the measures to restrict the import of agricultural economy have been promoted.
The effect of increasing the income of agricultural economy.
This section is analyzed in connection with the reality of our country. The reality of our analysis includes the management of the exchange rate.
The time lag effect of floating and policy. For monetary policy, the increase in money supply will be on the renminbi.
The pressure on the rise of the exchange rate is required, but due to the delay in the management of the exchange rate and policy adjustment, it may be due to the outside.
The arbitrage of the exchange market has a certain weakening effect on the actual effect of monetary policy. For fiscal policy,
Because of the management characteristics of the exchange rate, the agricultural income can be increased by the expansionary fiscal policy to some extent.
For trade policies, restrictions on the import of agricultural products can effectively increase the relative net exports of agricultural products.
But as the RMB exchange rate tends to reflect the real exchange rate for a long time, net exports will be reduced.
In section second, we analysis of the two models, mainly focus on the analysis of the "problem
By the analysis of this section, we mainly want to express, in an open economy, a government related to agriculture.
Action requires attention to international cooperation and cooperation.
The fourth chapter, the qualitative analysis of the government behavior to the development of agricultural economy is more used in this chapter.
The analytical method of dynamic economics.
First of all, we analyze the investment behavior of the government to the agricultural economy department. In the analysis, we are strong.
There is an optimal value for the total amount of investment. That is to say, investment in the agricultural sector is not always the case.
It brings about a certain increase in productivity and an increase in production.
In the first section, we first analyze the investment model without the adjustment cost. In the model, the requirement is real.
In this section, we use the variational method to solve the investment model in this section.
Time capital have determined path does not have dynamic characteristics. Since the agricultural sector capital stock growth
The rate is impossible to be infinite. So the government has an optimal path to investment in the agricultural sector, that is, the government will
How much investment growth

【学位授予单位】：对外经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2002
【分类号】：F015

【引证文献】