项目风险应对策略选择方法研究

发布时间：2018-01-21 08:44

本文关键词： 风险应对策略决策者效用优化模型风险关联性风险聚类　出处：《东北大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：风险应对措施的选择方法(Risk Response Actions Selection Method)是项目风险管理中的一个重要组成部分,但是项目应对措施选择的方法的研究却是远远不够的,近年来关于项目风险应对措施的选择方法的研究越来越多,正逐渐成为项目风险管理领域的研究热点。针对已有风险应对措施的选择方法的局限性,提出了两种改进的风险应对措施的选择方法,主要工作如下： (1)回顾了风险应对策略的选择方法的相关理论,以及风险关联性分析的相关理论。对这些理论进行了相关理论综述及文献综述,分析了现有文献中的不足。 (2)提出了考虑风险间的相互作用情况下的项目风险应对策略选择方法。该方法通过建立风险结构矩阵,并且通过这种结构矩阵来进行风险相互作用强度的定量评价。得到项目风险之间的风险相互作用大小后,基于风险节点和风险交互强度两种属性进行风险的聚类,这样使得风险相似程度高的风险形成风险簇,以方便项目管理者对项目风险的管理。最后,在此基础上针对不同风险簇内的风险关联程度值大小和风险簇内的风险总大小两个因素进行风险应对措施的选择。 (3)基于决策者偏好的风险应对策略选择模型,本文引入了对项目管理者效用的定义,通过某种效用函数来刻画某种特定类型的项目经理对待风险应对措施的态度,基于不同管理者的风险态度等因素引入相应的优化模型,旨在最大化项目管理者的效用,以达到最优的风险应对集合。
[Abstract]:Risk Response Actions Selection method is an important part of project risk management. However, the research on the methods of project response measures selection is far from enough. In recent years, more and more research on the methods of project risk response measures has become a hot topic in the field of project risk management. In view of the limitations of the existing risk response measures, two improved risk response methods are proposed. The main work is as follows: 1) reviewing the relevant theories of the choice method of risk coping strategy, and the related theory of risk correlation analysis. The deficiency of the existing literature is analyzed. (2) this paper proposes a method of selecting project risk coping strategies considering the interaction between risks, which establishes the risk structure matrix. And through this kind of structure matrix to carry on the quantitative evaluation of the risk interaction intensity. Risk clustering based on risk node and risk interaction intensity makes the risk cluster with high risk similarity to facilitate project risk management. Finally. On this basis, the risk response measures are selected according to two factors: the degree of risk correlation and the total risk in different risk clusters. 3) this paper introduces the definition of project manager utility based on the decision makers' preference model of risk response strategy selection. Through a certain utility function to describe a certain type of project manager's attitude towards risk response measures, based on different managers risk attitude and other factors to introduce the corresponding optimization model. The aim is to maximize the effectiveness of project managers in order to achieve the optimal risk response set.
【学位授予单位】：东北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F062.4

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