莫德尔斯基长周期理论评析

发布时间：2018-01-26 00:59

本文关键词： 莫德尔斯基长周期理论评析　出处：《中国人民解放军外国语学院》2002年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：莫德尔斯基长周期理论勾画了世界政治的运动规律，阐释了政治周期与康德拉季耶夫长波的互动关系，并从进化的角度宏观再现了过去一千年世界政治经济发展图景，因此，它是国际关系理论中一支有影响的“大理论”(Grand Theory)。尽管莫德尔斯基长周期理论影响广泛，意义深远，但目前国内国关学界对其研究仍停留在翻译介绍和总结-启示阶段。因此从分析其思想渊源入手，在总结其内容体系、概括其理论特点和方法论特点、追踪其发展轨迹、归纳其理论影响的基础上，对其作出总体评价并揭示其对中国的启示是非常必要的。本文在这方面的努力可算作是填补这一空白领域的一个尝试。是为本文的写作目的和意义。本文由引言和正文组成。引言部分主要分析了莫氏长周期理论出台的背景，讨论了其理论意义和现实意义，，同时还就目前国内对该理论的研究现状作了说明。正文共七章。第一章是对长周期理论思想渊源的分析。在这一章中，作者详细考察了均势理论、海权论、康德拉季耶夫经济周期理论、赖特和汤因比等人的战争周期理论、帕森斯学习理论、哈贝马斯社会进化理论对长周期理论的影响。第二章是对长周期理论的内容体系的总结。长周期理论内容包括：门）循环周期和学习周期。循环周期即大家熟蛐长周期。它分为四个阶段：全球战争一 ’ 世界大国一权力合法性遭到拒绝叶权力分散化。而学习 0 周期是中国读者比较陌生的，它也分为四个阶段：全球议程设置叶建立联合、宏观决策（全球战争）－＋行使世界领导权，即学习周期比循环周期提前两个阶段；门）成为世脚导国的四个条件：第一，岛国或半岛的地理－位置；第二，稳定、开放、有凝聚力和有联盟能力的国内社会；第三，领先的经济；第四，具有全球投放能力的政治－战略组织，主要是要拥有世界一半以上的海军，在当代还必须拥有一支强大的空军和太空力量。（3）政治长周期与经济长周期（康德拉季耶夫长波）的关系：一个长周期蕴含两个康德拉季耶夫长波；＊）世界政治二在长周期中进化。第三章重点论述了长周期理论的特点和方法论特点。长周期理论有五个鲜明特点：（一）强化领导权的指导性和合法性，淡化领导权的霸权性；（二）政治周期与经济周期的结合Z（三）帕森斯学习理论与周期理论的结合；（四）既重视循环，更关注进步；（五）贯穿始终的海权论思想。长周期理论的方法论特点主要表现为：系统分析法、比较分析法、经济分析法。第四章追踪了冷战后长周期理论的发展。其发展主要表现在：门）中国和意大利存在长周期雏形，长周期由五个增加到九个；门）莫氏发展了以前的进化式学习观，明确提出了世界政治进化的四个机制：增加变量、合作、选择、放大；（3）世界政治中存在400－480年的长周期， 930一1450 为欧亚转型期。1450一1850 为西欧时期。 18502030？为后西欧时期。第五章归纳了长周期理论的影响。长周期理论对以下几位作者有重要影响：门）罗伯特·吉尔平卜霸权稳定”论的代表人物x2）马克·布罗利门）理查德·罗斯克伦斯卜经济依存和平”论的代表人物八4）约翰·埃肯伯瑞（结构自由主义的代表人物）。第六章对长周期理论作了评价，其中第一节为赞扬其理论贡献，第二节为批判其缺陷和不足。长周期理论贡献主要体现在两方面：第一，用学习理论解释世界政治进化过程，并勾画了世界政治运动轨迹；第二，对战争与经济周期关系的创造性研究。长周期理论的缺陷主要体现在四个方面：过分重视海权，忽视陆权；过分重视权力、忽视软则；过分关注全球大甲，忽视＼的球大国在国际秩序变革中的作用；认为“民主和平”能消除战争周期现象。第七章为长周期理论对中国崛起的启示，这也是研究该理论的现实意义所在。其中第一节谈到莫德尔斯基对中国崛起的看法，对莫氏把中国与一战前的德国相比附的观点予以了驳斥，并批判了其民主和平论的倾向。第二节为长周期理论对中国外交的启示：中国目前的战略定位是不做挑战者，也不做完全的追随者，而应该顺应世界合作大势，推行“伙伴”战略。文中借用了俞正梁、郭树永等人的观点，强调伙伴战略应包括一个基本原则、两个基本环节、三个战略支点。一个基本原则指 4 独立自主的和平外交原则，两个基本环节指发展中美关系和全面融入国际社会，三个战略支点指：与其他大国的“战略伙伴关系＼与周边国家的“睦邻友好伙伴关系” 以及与发展中国家的“基础伙伴关系＼第三节为长周期理论对增强我国综合国力的启示。中国的目标不是成为世界领导?
[Abstract]:Modelski long cycle theory outlined the motion law of world politics, analyzes the interaction between the political cycle and Kondratieff long, and from the perspective of evolution of macro representation of the world's political and economic development prospect, over the past one thousand years, therefore, it is in international relations theory, an influential "theory" (Grand Theory).
Although the effect of Modelski long cycle theory is extensive, far-reaching significance, but the current domestic of the studies remain in the translation to introduce and summarize the revelation. So from the analysis of its ideological origins, in summing up the content system, summarizes its characteristics and theoretical and methodological characteristics, tracing its development path, foundation summarized its theory. The effects of the general evaluates and reveals its enlightenment to Chinese is necessary. The work in this area can be regarded as an attempt to fill the gap in this field.
It is for the purpose and meaning of this article.
This paper is composed of introduction and text. The introduction mainly analyzes the background of the introduction of Moore's long cycle theory, discusses its theoretical significance and practical significance, and explains the current research status of the theory in China.
A total of seven chapters. The first chapter is the analysis of the origin of the long period theory.
In one chapter, the author examines the theory of balance of balance, the theory of sea power, Conrad G
The theory of yev's economic cycle, the theory of the war cycle of Wright and Toynbee, etc.,
Parsons's theory of learning and the theory of Habermas's social evolution to the long period theory
The second chapter is the summary of the content system of the long period theory.
The cycle theory includes: the cycle cycle and the learning cycle. Cycle cycle.
The familiar / long period. It is divided into four stages: a global war
"
The legitimacy of power in the world is subject to the decentralization of denial of power.
Zero
The cycle is a stranger to Chinese readers, and it is also divided into four stages: the world
Agendas set up union, macro decision (Global War) - + Exercise
The leadership of the boundary, that is, the learning cycle is two stages ahead of the cycle cycle; the door)
It becomes the four conditions for the world to guide the nation: first, the geography of the island country or the peninsula.
Position; second, stable, open, cohesive and Consortium
Internal society; third, the leading economy; fourth, with global launch capacity
The political and strategic organization, mainly to have more than half of the world's navy,
There must be a strong air force and space force in the present day. (3)
The relationship between the long cycle of the treatment and the long period of the economy (Kondratieff long wave):
A long period contains two Kondratieff long waves; *) world politics
Two
It evolves in a long period. The third chapter focuses on the characteristics of the long period theory.
The characteristics of the methodology. The long period theory has five distinct characteristics: (1) strengthening
Guiding and legality of leadership, desalination of hegemony of leadership; (two)
The combination of political cycle and economic cycle Z (three) Parsons learning theory and week
The combination of the theory of the period; (four) paying attention to both the circulation and the progress; (five)
The theory of the methodology of the long period theory is the main characteristic of the theory of the long period.
The performance is: system analysis, comparative analysis, economic analysis. Fourth
The chapter traces the development of the long cycle theory after the cold war. Its development is mainly manifested in the following aspects:
There is a long cycle in China and Italy, with a long period of five increases.
To the nine; the door) Mohs developed the previous evolutionary learning concept, and made it clear.
The four mechanisms of world political evolution: increasing variables, cooperation, selection,
Amplification; (3) there is a long period 400480 years in world politics,
930 one 1450 was the transition period of Eurasian period.1450 1850 was the Western European period.
18502030? For the post Western European period. The fifth chapter sums up the long period theory
Influence. Long cycle theory has an important influence on the following authors: Gate)
Bert Gilpinb, the representative of Bert Gilpinb's hegemonic stability ") Mark Bbu
The Rowley door) the theory of the economic dependence and peace of Richard Ross clenbul
Representative eight 4) John Ekenbury (representative of structural liberalism)
In the sixth chapter, the long period theory is evaluated. The first section is the praise of the long period theory.
The second section is to criticize its defects and shortcomings. Long Zhou Qili
The contribution is mainly embodied in two aspects: first, the interpretation of the world by learning theory
The process of political evolution, and outlines the path of the world political movement; second,
The creative study of the relationship between war and the economic cycle. The defects of the long cycle theory
It is mainly embodied in four aspects: excessive attention to sea power, neglect of land rights, excessive use of land rights;
Take power, ignore the soft; too much attention to the global and the neglect of a
The role of the big ball in the change of the international order; the idea of "Democratic Peace"
Eliminate the phenomenon of the war cycle.
Chapter seven is the Enlightenment of the long period theory on the rise of China, which is also the research.
The practical significance of the theory. The first section talks about Modelski
In view of the rise of China, MOH compared China to the pre war Germany.
The attached viewpoint refutes and criticizes the tendency of its democratic peace theory.
The second section is the Enlightenment of the long cycle theory on China's Diplomacy: the current war in China
A brief position is not to be a challenger or to be a complete follower.
In the context of world cooperation, the "partnership" strategy was introduced. The article was borrowed from Yu Zheng
Liang, Guo Shuyong's point of view, stressed that the partner strategy should include a basic
Principle, two basic links and three strategic pivot points. One basic principle
Four
The two basic links of the principle of independent peace diplomacy are the development of Sino US Customs
The three strategic pivot points: the Department and the international community.
A "strategic partnership with neighboring countries," good neighborly partnership"
And the developing countries ", the third section based partnership for long period
The Enlightenment of theory to the strengthening of China's comprehensive national strength. The goal of China is not to be made.
World leaders?

【学位授予单位】：中国人民解放军外国语学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2002
【分类号】：F091.3

【共引文献】