我国工业化与城镇化的环境经济集聚双门槛效应分析

发布时间：2018-01-31 16:55

本文关键词： 城镇化水平工业化水平门槛效应空间效应　出处：《管理评论》2017年10期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文通过建立工业化与城镇化双门槛效应模型,以及对环境经济集聚的空间效应分析,验证了经济集聚与污染集聚之间表现为"N型"环境库兹涅茨曲线,且工业化与城镇化存在双门槛效应。当工业化率介于41.76%与44.89%之间或城镇化率高于88.50%,经济集聚产生的负面效应最小,EKC曲线中改善的"拐点"值最小,恶化的"拐点"值最大,即经济发展可以迅速跨过越发展越污染的拐点,进入再发展少污染的轨道,并推迟下一个拐点的到来。在分析"十二五"时期各省市工业化与城镇化发展现状和"拐点"特征基础上,提出"十三五"时期各省市经济与环境协调发展的对策建议,即优先推进江浙沪的协同发展;以北京和天津为引领推动京津冀一体化发展;在泛珠三角区域合作大背景下推进广东与福建的协同发展,深化闽粤经济合作;依托环渤海与京津冀经济圈的区位优势实现山东与辽宁的协调发展,以此重点突破东北困境。
[Abstract]:By establishing the double threshold effect model of industrialization and urbanization, and analyzing the spatial effect of environmental economic agglomeration, this paper verifies the "N-type" environmental Kuznets curve between economic agglomeration and pollution agglomeration. When the industrialization rate is between 41.76% and 44.89% or the urbanization rate is higher than 88.50, the negative effect of economic agglomeration is the least. The value of "inflection point" improved in EKC curve is the smallest, and the value of "inflection point" of deterioration is the largest, that is, economic development can quickly cross the inflection point of more development and more pollution, and enter the track of redevelopment with less pollution. And postpone the arrival of the next inflection point. On the basis of analyzing the current situation of industrialization and urbanization of provinces and cities and the characteristics of "inflection point" during the 12th Five-Year Plan period. The countermeasures and suggestions of coordinated development of economy and environment of provinces and cities in the period of the 13th Five-Year Plan are put forward, that is, priority should be given to promoting the coordinated development of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai; Beijing and Tianjin as the guide to promote the integration of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei development; Under the background of the regional cooperation in the Pan-Pearl River Delta, we should promote the coordinated development between Guangdong and Fujian, and deepen the economic cooperation between Fujian and Guangdong. Based on the regional advantages of Bohai Sea and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei economic circle, the coordinated development of Shandong and Liaoning is realized, and the difficulty of Northeast China is broken through.
【作者单位】：江西财经大学协同创新中心;华东交通大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金重大招标项目(15ZDC021) 国家自然科学基金项目(71263020) 江西省科技落地计划项目(KJLD12064) 江西省高校哲学社会科学重大招标项目(ZDGG201305)
【分类号】：F299.21;F424;X196
【正文快照】： 引言工业化是传统农业社会逐步转变为现代化工业社会的过程,一方面表现为大工业生产方式取代小农生产方式的工业化进程,另一方面表现为农村人口向城镇聚集,农业社会向工业社会转变的城镇化进程。我国实现工业化的任务,是第一个五年计划提出来的,自“一五”计划开始至今“十三

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