产业结构变迁与汇率制度选择

发布时间：2018-02-03 17:43

本文关键词： 汇率制度产业结构 Logistic回归模型技术进步主导产业　出处：《天津财经大学》2008年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】： 关于汇率制度选择的争论,源于金属本位退出历史舞台和信用货币兴起时期。进入布雷顿森林体系以后,钉住美元的固定汇率制度处于绝对优势地位,但随着美元地位的逐渐走弱,选择浮动汇率制度的呼声日趋高涨,对于汇率制度选择的大争论拉开了帷幕。布雷顿森林体系下的世界货币体系蕴含了浮动汇率制度取代固定汇率制度的冲动。固定汇率制度的拥护者处于防守地位,浮动汇率制度的拥护者处于攻击态势。当时的历史条件决定了在进行汇率制度选择争论时,更多地是从宏观经济变量和汇率制度外生的角度进行考虑。同时,布雷顿森林体系下的汇率制度争论大多是在发达国家的经济学家之间展开,经济学家们的观点难免会染上本国主流学派的观点,并潜意识中以卷入争论的经济学家们所在国家作为分析汇率制度选择的蓝本。这样,一方面导致了对发展中国家汇率制度选择的忽略,另一方面,由于发达国家的经济结构相似,无论是“长期”还是“短期”,对他们进行汇率制度选择的影响都不大,对汇率制度选择“期限”的忽略也就在所难免。进入牙买加体系以后,无一例外地,发达市场经济国家选择了浮动汇率制度,而绝大多数发展中国家则选择了钉住式的固定汇率制度、中间汇率制度、有管理的浮动汇率制度,或者干脆放弃本国货币,直接以某一发达国家的货币作为本国货币。1997年亚洲金融危机以后,相继兴起了“原罪论”和“害怕浮动论”,“原罪论”将发展中国家之所以实行固定汇率制度归因于发展中国家对“货币错配”和“期限错配”进行“原罪”的结果;“害怕浮动论”则认为发展中国家之所以选择固定汇率制度是对“荷兰病”的恐惧和政府公信力的缺失。与其说“原罪论”和“害怕浮动论”是对发展中国家选择固定汇率制度原因的寻找,毋宁说是对发展中国家选择固定汇率制度既成现实的谴责。不可否认,现有的主流汇率制度选择理论应用于发展中国家,存在着诸多的不公平之处。集中到一点,现有的主流汇率制度选择理论的局限性主要表现在对各国发展程度不同的忽略,忽略了发展程度差异,实际上就是忽略了影响发展中国家汇率制度选择的最主要因素。各国之间发展程度差异可以通过产业结构的差异得到体现。同时,由于经济发展程度差异在概念上的抽象性,运用产业结构差异对汇率制度选择进行分析成为可能。运用Logistic二元离散被解释变量计量经济学模型对产业结构和汇率制度进行回归分析以后,本文得出:汇率制度选择与产业结构之间高度相关,产业结构高度越高的国家越倾向于选择自由浮动汇率制度,产业结构高度越低的国家越倾向于选择非自由浮动的汇率制度。然而,尽管通过Logistic回归分析得出汇率制度选择与产业结构高度之间存在高度相关,但其内在机理何在呢? 根据内生经济增长理论、罗斯托对于主导产业和产业结构之间关系的论述和统计分析,我们认为:经济增长、产业结构变迁和主导产业更替都是由技术进步所内生决定,产业结构高度的提升离不开主导产业的更替。根据弗农的“产品循环说”和赤松要的“雁行产业发展形态说”,主导产业更替在世界范围内遵循了由发达国家向次发达国家再向发展中国家的转移过程。比较优势理论、特定要素模型、要素比例理论和规模经济理论是现有的解释一国对外贸易结构的主要理论,从静态时点上解释贸易结构,所隐含的意义是:进出口商品是特定要素和要素禀赋的载体,一个国家实际上是在输出和引进特定要素和要素禀赋。雁行产业发展形态说和产品循环说是连接主导产业转移和进出口结构的主要理论,从动态时间上解释贸易结构问题。将相对静态的特定要素和动态的主导产业转移相融合,揭示出发展中国家与发达国家在进出口商品上的互补性。同时,发展中国家的出口商品在发达国家市场上面对的应该是一个完全竞争或近似于完全竞争的市场。而发达国家的出口商品在发展中国家面对的应该是一个完全垄断、近似完全垄断或者垄断竞争的市场。这种进出口商品的市场格局对发展中国家的出口商和政府都有着不可消除的影响,从而,这种影响就必然反映在对汇率制度选择的态度上。以产业结构为出发点分析汇率制度选择,实际上就是从实体经济角度来考虑汇率制度选择问题,这直接导致了对一国金融部门的忽略。在汇率制度选择的路径选择上,对一国金融部门的忽略等同于对资本与金融账户的忽略。对于发展中国家来说,在资本与金融账户没有开放的条件下,毫无疑问,汇率制度的选择取决于经常账户的影响,也就是实体经济的影响;在资本与金融账户已经开放的条件下,由于本位货币不可能作为世界货币和预算约束的存在,在较长时期内,资本与金融账户的余额受制于经常账户余额。在汇率制度选择过程中,资本与金融账户处于从属地位,经常账户处于主导地位。在做了假设条件以后,假定世界上只存在两个极端国家,一个是处于发展初期的国家,一个是极端发达的国家。通过对发展中国家进出口产品结构的分析,可以得出:发展中国家更倾向于选择管理多于浮动的非自由浮动的汇率制度,发展中国家由非自由浮动汇率制度向自由浮动汇率制度转换的时间进程由产业结构高度差距的缩小进程所决定。在一国范围内,正是由于技术进步导致了主导产业的更替,反过来,主导产业的更替又促进了技术进步。主导产业更替促进了产业结构变迁,产业结构变迁又加快了主导产业更替。同时,主导产业更替影响了一国的进出口结构,而进出口结构又影响了汇率制度选择。那么,产业结构变迁和汇率制度选择之间的高度相关性就得到了解释,汇率制度之间转换的“拐点”不应该是一个确定的“点”,而是一个长期的平滑过程。从我国汇率制度发展变迁的历史过程中也可以看出,我国一直处在效率与稳定之间的两难选择。在我国的汇率制度选择过程中应该考虑产业结构和汇率制度之间的适配性问题。通过对我国主导产业的分析,引申出我国出口产品在发达市场国家中的竞争性地位和发达国家对我国进口产品在我国市场上的近似垄断性的地位,那么,我国在汇率制度选择上,理应实行非自由浮动的汇率制度,而且这是一个长期策略。
[Abstract]:On the choice of exchange rate regime debate, originated from the metal standard from the stage of history and appearance of the currency credit period. After entering the Bretton Woods system, the fixed dollar pegged exchange rate regime in an absolutely dominant position, but with the gradual weakening of the dollar, choose floating exchange rate system increasingly, to the exchange rate system debate opened the curtain.
Under the Bretton Woods system, the world monetary system contains a floating exchange rate system instead of fixed exchange rate system impulse. Support the fixed exchange rate system are in a defensive position, support the floating exchange rate system in the attack situation. The historical conditions decide on the choice of exchange rate regime debate, more is to consider from the macro economic variables the exchange rate system and exogenous angle. At the same time, the exchange rate regime debate under the Bretton Woods system is mostly carried out among economists in developed countries, the views of economists will inevitably be affected by the main stream school on their point of view, and the subconscious to engage in debate as economists country analysis modeled the choice of exchange rate regime. In this way, a lead to the neglect of the choice of exchange rate regimes in developing countries, on the other hand, because of the economic structure in developed countries is similar, regardless of If it is "long term" or "short term", the choice of exchange rate system has little influence on them, and it is unavoidable to ignore the choice of "time limit" for the exchange rate system.
After entering the Jamaica system without exception, the developed market economy countries choose floating exchange rate system, and the vast majority of developing countries are pegged to choose a fixed exchange rate system, the intermediate exchange rate regime, managed floating exchange rate system, or simply give up its own currency, the currency.1997 Asian financial crisis directly to a developed country as the currency after the gradual rise of the "original sin" and "fear of floating", "theory" of developing countries will adopt fixed exchange rate system due to the developing countries of "currency mismatch" and "maturity mismatch" of "original sin" the original sin; the "fear of floating" is that developing countries chose a fixed exchange rate the system is lack of the fear of "Dutch disease" and the credibility of the government. Instead of saying "original sin" and "fear of floating" of development China family choose to find the fixed exchange rate system reason, but become reality condemnation of the developing countries to choose the fixed exchange rate regime. It is undeniable that the existing mainstream choice of exchange rate system theory is applied to the developing countries, there are a lot of unfairness.
Concentrating on one point, the limitation of the existing mainstream exchange rate regime selection theory is mainly due to the neglect of different countries' development degree, and neglecting the difference of development level. In fact, it ignores the most important factor that affects the choice of exchange rate regime in developing countries.
The development degree of differences between countries can be reflected by the difference of the industrial structure. At the same time, due to the abstract differences in the level of economic development concept, the use of industrial structure on the choice of exchange rate regime analysis possible. After using Logistic, two yuan of discrete explanatory variables econometric model regression Analysis on the industrial structure and the exchange rate system in this paper the high correlation between the choice of exchange rate regime and the industrial structure, the industrial structure the height of the country are more likely to choose a floating exchange rate system, the national industrial structure is the lower the more inclined to choose the non floating exchange rate system.
However, although there is a high degree of correlation between the exchange rate system selection and the height of the industrial structure through the Logistic regression analysis, what is the inherent mechanism of the exchange rate regime?
According to the theory of endogenous economic growth, Rostow on the relationship between leading industry and industry structure and discusses the statistical analysis, we believe that: economic growth, changes in industrial structure and the replacement of the leading industry are decided by technological progress in upgrading the industrial structure, the height cannot do without the substitution of leading industry.
According to Vernon's "product cycle" and pine to the "flying geese Industrial Development Patterns", the replacement of the leading industry in the world followed by developed countries to developed countries to transfer process in developing countries. The comparative advantage theory, specific factor model, factor proportion theory and scale economy theory is the main theory of the existing explain a country's foreign trade structure, trade structure explanation from the static point, the implied meaning is: import and export commodity is the carrier of specific factors and factor endowments, a country is in fact the output and the introduction of specific factors and factor endowments. Echelon industry form theory and product cycle theory is mainly the theory of industrial connection transfer and import and export structure, to explain the trade structure from the dynamic time.
The relative dominant industry specific factors of static and dynamic transfer of integration, reveals the developing and developed countries in the import and export commodities complementary. At the same time, developing countries' exports face in developed countries on the market should be a perfect competition or similar fully competitive market. While the developed countries export goods in in the face of the developing countries should be a complete monopoly, near monopoly or monopolistic competition in the market. The market structure of import and export commodities from developing countries and the government have influence, thus cannot be eliminated, this effect must be reflected in the choice of exchange rate.
Starting from the industrial structure to analyze the choice of exchange rate regime, is actually the real economy from the perspective of the choice of exchange rate system, which directly led to the neglect of financial sector. In the path of exchange rate system choice, the neglect of financial sector equivalent to the capital and financial account for developing countries ignored. Speaking in the capital and financial account is not open to the outside world, there is no doubt that the effect of the choice of exchange rate system depends on the current account, which is affecting the real economy; in the capital and financial account has been open conditions, because currency could not serve as a world currency and budget constraints in a longer period of time the balance of capital and financial account, subject to the current account balance. In the choice of exchange rate regime in the process of capital and financial account in a subordinate position, often in a dominant account Status.
After making assumptions, assuming that the two extreme countries only exist in the world, one is in the early stage of development of the country, is an extremely developed country. Through the analysis, the structure of import and export products to developing countries that developing countries tend to choose a more management than non free floating exchange rate system. The developing countries by non free floating exchange rate system to free floating exchange rate regime transition process is determined by the industrial structure to narrow the gap between the process.
Within a country, it is because of technological advances led to the replacement of the leading industries, in turn, leading industries and promote technological progress. The replacement of the leading industry to promote the transformation of industrial structure, industrial structure and speed up the replacement of the leading industry. At the same time, the replacement of the leading industry of the import and export structure of a country, and import and export structure also affects the choice of exchange rate system. Then, a high correlation between changes in industrial structure and the choice of exchange rate regime is explained, the exchange rate regime transition between the "inflection point" should not be a definite "point", but a long-term and smooth process.
From the historical development and evolution process of China's exchange rate system also shows that China has been in a dilemma between the efficiency and stability of choice. In considering the industrial structure and the exchange rate system matching problems should be in the process of China's exchange rate system. Through the analysis of the leading industries in China, a competitive position our export products in the developed market countries and developed countries similar to the monopolistic position, China's imports of products in the Chinese market, China's exchange rate system choice, should implement non floating exchange rate system, and this is a long-term strategy.

【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2008
【分类号】：F062.9;F830.7;F224

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