基于期权理论的技术创新项目选择与决策方法研究

发布时间：2018-02-23 00:39

本文关键词： 技术创新项目实物期权定价模型项目选择与决策　出处：《重庆师范大学》2003年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】： 在技术创新项目的管理中，技术创新项目的选择与决策是非常重要的一个环节，它对确保项目的成功实施有重要作用。因此，对技术创新项目的选择与决策的理论与方法进行研究，具有重要的现实意义和理论价值。论文根据技术创新项目投资过程中所具有的期权特性，利用实物期权理论，，对技术创新项目选择与决策问题进行了较为系统深入的研究。论文的主要工作有：1)在概述期权定价法和系统分析技术创新项目及其实施过程特点的基础上，比较了技术创新项目投资与金融期权投资的相似性，作为技术创新项目投资的实物期权评价法的理论与依据；2)在综合分析技术创新项目投资所具有期权的基础上，分别建立了技术创新项目投资的延迟期权、增长期权和复合期权模型，并进行了相应的实证研究和比较研究；3)对Pindyck的期权定价模型进行了推广和改进，利用模型探讨了投资时机的选择性及其对投资机会价值和投资决策的影响，并在此基础上确定最优投资规则，为技术创新项目投资决策提供参考；4)针对定量模型难以规避技术创新项目中组织风险的特点，进一步将定量模型和定性研究方法相结合，对技术创新项目投资评价的实物期权模型进行了改进，使得评价模型更合理。
[Abstract]:In the management of technological innovation project, the selection and decision of technological innovation project is a very important link, which plays an important role in ensuring the successful implementation of the project. It is of great practical significance and theoretical value to study the theory and method of technology innovation project selection and decision-making. According to the characteristics of option in the process of investment of technological innovation project, the paper uses real option theory. In this paper, the selection and decision of technological innovation projects are studied systematically and deeply. The main work of this paper is: 1) on the basis of summarizing the option pricing method and systematically analyzing the characteristics of technological innovation projects and their implementation process, This paper compares the similarity between the investment of technology innovation project and the investment of financial option. As the theory and basis of real option evaluation method of technology innovation project investment, the paper analyzes the options of technology innovation project investment on the basis of comprehensive analysis. The models of delayed options, growth options and composite options for investment in technological innovation projects are established, and the corresponding empirical and comparative studies are carried out to promote and improve the option pricing model of Pindyck. The model is used to discuss the choice of investment opportunity and its influence on investment opportunity value and investment decision, and on the basis of this, the optimal investment rules are determined. In view of the fact that the quantitative model is difficult to avoid the organizational risk in the technological innovation project, the quantitative model is further combined with the qualitative research method. The real option model of investment evaluation of technological innovation project is improved to make the evaluation model more reasonable.
【学位授予单位】：重庆师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2003
【分类号】：F062.4

【参考文献】