自然利率学说的发展及在中国的运用

发布时间：2018-02-23 20:09

本文关键词： 自然利率魏克塞尔凯恩斯 VAR 货币政策　出处：《新疆大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着金融体系与电子科技的发展,货币供给量越来越难以控制,因此在90年代很多国家便放弃了货币供给这一政策目标,转而以通货膨胀率、利率或者产出水平作为货币政策目标,而央行此类货币政策目标的制定与实现都离不开一个重要经济变量的估值——自然利率,于是自然利率理论沉寂一百多年后再度走进了人们的视野。自然利率理论首先由瑞典经济学家魏克塞尔所提出,著名的魏克塞尔累积过程便是这一理论的重要组成部分。它的主要内容是在一个社会中,利率当然产生于货币借贷,但这种利率并不一定是使储蓄与投资达到均衡因而价格水平实现稳定的利率,由于货币流通速度不稳定与现代银行信用体系的发展,货币利率往往可以维持在高于均衡利率或低于均衡利率的状态很长时间,如果货币利率过高,就会产生向下的魏克塞尔累积过程,价格水平不断下降,反之则产生向上的累积过程,价格水平不断上升。而上述的均衡利率,魏克塞尔指出就是用实物进行借贷时产生的利率,也就是“自然利率”。魏克塞尔的理论问世后直接推动了瑞典学派的形成,他的理论也被他的弟子林达尔、缪尔达尔不断完善发展而变得更加成熟。而更为重要的是,自然利率理论标志着西方经济学由微观走向宏观,自由发展走向宏观干预的方向转变,货币的古典二分法就此被打破,它的出现对于凯恩斯主义的诞生有着深刻而明显的启示作用,凯恩斯本人的学说乃至希克斯等人后来对其的发展都与魏克塞尔自然利率理论有着极深的理论渊源。在指出缪尔达尔与林达尔对自然利率学说的修改完善部分与揭示凯恩斯理论的内核正是自然利率学说后,文章最后一部分应用SVAR模型对中国2007-2014年间的自然利率做出定量估计,并用自然利率理论解释了这一时期中国的物价波动与经济得以实现平稳增长的原因。我国目前对于自然利率的理论与定量研究还比较缺乏,但如果我国央行也跟上国际形势改变货币政策目标的话,则必然不能回避自然利率的相关问题。
[Abstract]:With the development of the financial system and electronic technology, the amount of money supply is becoming more and more difficult to control, so in 90s, many countries abandoned the policy objective of money supply, and instead used the rate of inflation. Interest rate or output level is the target of monetary policy, and the establishment and realization of central bank's monetary policy goal can not be achieved without the valuation of an important economic variable-natural interest rate. So, after more than 100 years of silence, the natural interest rate theory once again came into people's view. The natural interest rate theory was first put forward by Swedish economist Wilkser. The famous Wickell accumulation process is an important part of this theory. Its main content is that, in a society, interest rates of course arise out of money borrowing. But this kind of interest rate is not necessarily the one that makes savings and investment balanced and thus price level stable. Because of the unstable speed of money circulation and the development of the credit system of modern banks, Monetary interest rates can often be maintained above or below the equilibrium rate for a long time. If the monetary interest rate is too high, there will be a downward Wicksell accumulation process and the price level will continue to decline. On the contrary, there will be an upward cumulative process, and the price level will continue to rise. And the equilibrium interest rate mentioned above, Waikser points out, is the interest rate generated when borrowing in kind. That is, "natural interest rate." Wicksell's theory directly promoted the formation of the Swedish school. His theory was also matured by his disciples Lindal and Muirdar. More importantly, The theory of natural interest rate marks the change of western economics from micro to macro and free development to macro intervention, and the classical dichotomy of money is broken. Its emergence has a profound and obvious enlightenment to the birth of Keynesianism. Keynes' own theory and Hicks' later development have a deep theoretical origin with Weissell's theory of natural interest rate. The author points out that Murdal and Lindal's theory of natural interest rate is modified and perfected. After revealing the core of Keynes's theory of natural interest rates, In the last part of the paper, we use SVAR model to estimate the natural interest rate in China from 2007 to 2014. The reason of price fluctuation and steady economic growth in China during this period is explained by the theory of natural interest rate. At present, the theoretical and quantitative research on natural interest rate in China is still lacking. But if the central bank also keeps pace with the international situation and changes the monetary policy objectives, it will inevitably have to avoid the related problems of natural interest rates.
【学位授予单位】：新疆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F091.3

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