模糊关联理论在碳评估市场法中的应用研究

发布时间：2018-03-06 13:34

本文选题：碳权资产　切入点：评估方法　出处：《首都经济贸易大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来,随着全球碳交易市场的兴起,围绕以二氧化碳等温室气体排放权为代表的碳权资产所展开的学术研究成为热点,其中,针对碳权资产价值评估的理论研究亦不在少数,然而以往的研究大多从碳金融衍生品市场或者企业自身的角度对碳权价值进行衡量,如期权定价模型、影子价格、成本模型等,鲜有从传统评估方法的角度对碳权资产价值进行评估的研究。本文在前人研究成果的基础上,结合现阶段碳交易的特点,选取资产评估中的市场法为理论研究的切入点,进行有关碳权资产价值评估问题的探讨;利用模糊数学中的贴近度和灰色关联理论中的灰色关联度,结合当前交易市场上的交易数据,选取与被评估对象最相近的交易,实现对碳权资产价值的评估。具体而言,本文首先对国内外围绕碳权资产的价值所展开的理论研究进行梳理,结合国内外学者的碳权价值影响因素的研究成果,并根据现实情况进行相应调整,从中挑选出影响碳权资产价值(以EUA现货市场价值为代表)的主要特征因素;其次,对当前较为普遍的碳权资产评估方法进行介绍,讨论市场法途径的可行性及重点、难点问题;再者,引入“模糊关联度”分析思路,对模糊-关联理论进行介绍,包括模糊数学的贴近度和灰色关联度的概念和原理,指出利用二者衡量碳权资产评估可比交易案例之间的近似程度的可行性;随后,通过主要特征因素建立数列矩阵和模糊矩阵,构建出模糊关联估值模型;最后,以欧盟EUA市场交易数据进行实证案例分析并得出研究结论。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the rise of the global carbon trading market, the academic research on carbon right assets, such as carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emission rights, has become a hot spot. However, previous studies mostly measure the value of carbon right from the perspective of carbon financial derivatives market or enterprises themselves, such as option pricing model, shadow price, cost model, etc. Based on the previous research results and the characteristics of carbon trading at the present stage, this paper selects the market method in asset evaluation as the starting point of theoretical research. This paper discusses the value evaluation of carbon right assets, utilizes the degree of closeness in fuzzy mathematics and the grey correlation degree in grey relational theory, and combines the trading data in the current trading market to select the most close transactions to the evaluated object. To realize the evaluation of the value of carbon right assets. Specifically, this paper firstly combed the theoretical research around the value of carbon right assets at home and abroad, combined with the research results of the factors influencing carbon right value of domestic and foreign scholars. According to the actual situation, the paper selects the main characteristic factors that affect the value of carbon right assets (represented by the spot market value of EUA). Secondly, the paper introduces the current methods of carbon right assets evaluation. The feasibility, key points and difficult problems of the market approach are discussed. Furthermore, the fuzzy-relevance theory is introduced, including the concepts and principles of the closeness degree of fuzzy mathematics and the grey correlation degree, by introducing the idea of "fuzzy correlation degree". The paper points out the feasibility of using the two methods to measure the approximate degree between the comparable trading cases of carbon right assets evaluation. Then, by establishing the series matrix and fuzzy matrix through the main characteristic factors, the fuzzy association valuation model is constructed. The empirical case study is carried out with the EU EUA market transaction data and the conclusion is drawn.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X196;F831.5

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