论我国贷币供给对经济增长的作用

发布时间：2018-03-23 16:52

本文选题：货币供给　切入点：经济增长　出处：《西南财经大学》2001年硕士论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来，货币政策一再受到人们的关注，这种关注从根本上说是源于货币政策跟经济增长的关系、对经济增长的作用。这是一个很大的课题，对于货币政策的研究，或多或少是论及这个课题的一部分，或是它的一个子课题。在众多的有关货币政策的著作、文献中，系统论述、分析我国货币供给对经济增长作用的并不多见。本文希望在这方面作出一些努力，充实这方面的工作。本文的一、二章构架理论分析框架，包括长期经济增长、短期货币供给对需求的作用以及货币供给作用于经济增长的原因三个方面的理论及模型，以期在理论的指导下正确、适当地认识货币供给在经济增长中的地位和作用。三、四章运用西方货币经济理论，借鉴其思路，并结合我国的特殊情况，分析1984年来我国货币供给对经济增长的作用，主要是货币供给与经济增长变动的同向性问题。本文结论是我国货币供给与经济增长的同向联系成立，货币供给对经济增长发挥着重要作用。长期经济增长分析排除货币因素。长期经济增长分析采用总生产函数，基本框架是索洛模型和增长核算。索洛模型展示了一个稳定的动态增长过程，经济能够克服失调现象，稳定地增长下去。结论是均衡状态下惟有技术进步才能解释劳均产出Y/L的持续增长，进而人均产出的持续增长；劳动力（人口）增长以及技术进步共同解释了总产出的持续增长；储蓄率的作用在于影响稳定状态的资本存量水平。增长核算将运行在非均衡状态下的现实经济增长分解为资本、劳动和技术进步（全要素生产率）三者贡献之和：，它通过计量手段来揭示经济运行的真实情况。此外，将货币引入经济增长模型的尝试并没有得出积极的结论。对经济增长的短期分析通常从需求方入手，这是经济学中广为接受的观点：经济增长长期由供给决定，短期受需求制约。总支出方程Y=C+I+G+（X-M）表明货币供给可通过消费、投资、政府支出、进口与出口四个途径来影响总产出。凯恩斯货币理论中货币供给作用于WP=3产出，主要在于货币可以左右利率。货币、利率是提高有效需求的关键变量，刺激投资的唯一途径还在于降低利率，控制货币数量、调节利率、促进投资、增加有效需求、扩大生产、增加就业，这就是凯恩斯的宏观货币政策。对此，罗纳德·麦金农和爱德华·肖分析发展中国家的经济金融情况后提出不同的观点。他们指出，发展中国家存在利率管制、信贷配给等管制措施，是阻碍经济发展的主要原因。在金融压制情况下，货币的供求状况和利率的决定是分离的，，货币并不能左右利率水平。正确的对策是提高利率使之更接近市场均衡利率，提高货币的实际收益率促进储蓄和投资。弗里德曼没有纠缠于传导、作用的途径，而是在实证分析的基础上提纲挈领地捕捉住货币与经济增长的关系。他的观点是，只要是新增货币，那么无论是由政府还是由私人来花费，都可以周期性地刺激经济。他举日本和美国近年的经验为例说明货币供给决定了经济的走向。总需求方程y=a(m-p)表明货币可以影响需求，但如果货币供给变动引起价格水平的相同变化，总产出并不改变。因此，有必要对供给方面进行分析，寻求对货币供给作用于经济增长原因更有说服力的解释。凯恩斯的“工资-价格”机制基于名义工资刚性或粘性，名义工资的变动滞后于物价变动，因此增加货币供给推动价格上升，实际工资下降，因而产出增加。进一步的研究认为名义货币量的变动对商品价格的变动影响不大，但工人工资的增加会立刻、完全反映到商品的价格上，结论是货币供给的增加短期内带动产出增加，长期产出回落到正常水平。卢卡斯模型引入了信息不完全。由于厂商将货币总量变化误认为是相对价格变化，因而改变产出量，由此未预期的货币供给变化可以影响产出。费雪模型的结论是货币对产出的作用持续两个时期，调整货币供给可以减少产出波动。泰勒模型给出了工资行为的另一种解释，表明货币供给对产出的影响远远超出两个时期。上面的理论探讨对于分析和认识我国货币供给对经济增长的作用有重要的政策含义：1、应当适当认识货币供给对经济增长的作用。实证研究证实货币供给不是我国长期经济增长的决定因素，完全依靠资本、劳动投入的增长不可能长期维持经济的高速增长，货币供给不能WP=4解释全要素生产率，这都说明货币供给对长期经济增长的作用有限。2、和发达市场经济国家相比，我国货币供给调控经济增长的空间更大。工资或价格粘性、信息不完全、不完全竞争市场等因素都为货币供给提供了作用空间，我国市场发展状况远远落后于发达国家，货币供给的作用将更多反映在产出上，较少反映在价格上。3、随着以市场为取向的经济体制改革的推进和深入，货币供给调控经济增长的难度逐步增大。总量变量的变动与微观主体行为的关联弱化，向完善市场状况演进的结果是经济增长越来越不易被货币供给所影响，两者的相关性减弱。第三章分析了我国货币供给作用的特殊性。1、基础货币的供给基本上通过外汇占款、对政府债权和对存款货币银行债权这几个渠道进行，不过它们都存在约束，因而调控基础货币的渠道并不通畅。传统的信贷规模控制、近年商业银行保守经营行为先后成为影响货币派生、创造的重要因素。2、国有银行具有追
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, monetary policy has attracted people's attention, this concern is fundamentally due to the monetary policy and the relationship between economic growth, the role of economic growth. This is a big topic for the study of monetary policy, more or less is part of this subject is a sub subject, or it. In many of the relevant monetary policy works in the literature, systematically discusses the analysis of China's money supply to economic growth is rare. This paper hopes to make some efforts in this regard, enrich the work.
In this paper, the two chapter theory analysis framework, including long-term economic growth, short-term effect of money supply on demand and money supply for the reason of economic growth theory and model three aspects, in order to correctly under the guidance of the theory, status and role of proper understanding of the money supply in the economic growth in three. The four chapter, using the western monetary theory, referring to the idea, and combined with the special circumstances of our country, analysis of 1984 China's money supply to the economic growth is mainly money supply and economic growth in the same to the problem. The conclusion of this paper is to establish contact with the money supply and economic growth in China. The money supply plays an important role in economic growth.
The long-term economic growth analysis excluding currency factors. The long-term economic growth analysis using the total production function, the basic framework is the Solow model and growth accounting. The Solow model shows a stable dynamic growth process, to overcome the economic imbalances, steady growth down. Conclusion is the equilibrium state but the technological progress in order to explain the continued growth in output per worker Y/L the continued growth and per capita output; labor (population) growth and technological progress together explain sustained growth of total output; the savings rate is affected the steady state capital stock level. Growth accounting will run in the non balanced state of the real economic growth into the capital, labor and technology progress (total factor the three contribution of productivity), and it is measured by: means to reveal the true situation of economic operation. In addition, the money into the economic growth model The attempt did not come to a positive conclusion.
Analysis on short-term economic growth usually starts from the demand side, it is widely accepted in Economics: economic growth by the long-term supply decision, short-term demand constrained. The total Y=C+I+G+ equation (X-M) show that the money supply through consumption, investment, government expenditure, import and export of four ways to influence the total output. Keynes monetary theory of money supply to WP=3 output, is mainly about currency interest rate. The currency, interest rate is the key variables to improve the effective demand, the only way is to stimulate investment, lower interest rates, control the quantity of money, interest rate adjustment, promote investment, increase effective demand, expand production, increase employment, this is Keynes the macro monetary policy. In this regard, Ronald McKinnon and Edward Seaan, the economic analysis of developing countries financial situation to put forward different opinions. They pointed out that developing countries exist The interest rate control, credit rationing and other control measures, are the main reasons hindering economic development. In the case of financial repression, the situation of supply and demand and interest rates decision is the separation of the money and not about interest rates. The right strategy is to raise interest rates to make it more close to the market equilibrium interest rate, improve the real return rate to promote monetary savings and investment. Freedman did not dwell on the conduction function way, but in the empirical analysis based on the brief outline to capture monetary and economic growth. In his view, as long as the new currency, so whether by the government or by private spending, can periodically stimulate the economy. He cited Japan and the United States in recent years of experience as an example of the money supply determines the direction of economic development.
The aggregate demand equation y=a (M-P) that can affect the monetary demand, but if the change of money supply caused by the same change in the price level, the total output does not change. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the supply side of the money supply, seeking to more economic growth causes convincing explanation. Keynes's "wage price" mechanism based on the nominal wage rigidity or stickiness, nominal wage change lags behind the price changes, therefore increase the money supply, pushing prices to rise, real wages, and increased output. Further research that changes the name of the change in the amount of money on commodity prices have little effect, but the wage increased quickly, fully reflected in the price of commodities. The conclusion is an increase in the money supply in the short term to increase output, long-term output dropped to normal levels. Lucas model is introduced into the incomplete information. Because the manufacturers will The amount of money change mistaken for relative price changes, thus changing the output, which is not expected to change in money supply can affect the output of the Fisher. The conclusion of the model is that the effects of money on output for the two period, adjust the money supply can reduce the output volatility. Taylor model gives another explanation of wage behavior, showed that the effect of currency the supply of output far exceeded two times.
The above theoretical study for the analysis and understanding of China's money supply has important policy implications for economic growth: 1, should be the proper understanding of money supply on economic growth. The empirical study confirmed that the money supply is not China's long-term economic growth depends entirely on the determinants of capital, growth of labor input could not maintain rapid growth economy in the long term, the money supply can not explain WP=4 TFP, which shows that the money supply for long-term economic growth limited.2, compared with the developed countries of market economy, the spatial regulation of money supply in China economic growth. More wage or price stickiness, incomplete information, incomplete market competition and other factors are provided the role of space for the money supply, the market development status in our country is far behind the developed countries, the money supply will be more reflected in the role of output, less reflected in the The price of.3, with the market to promote and further orientation of economic reform, the difficulty of money supply control economic growth gradually increased. The total variation and weakening the association behavior, to perfect the market situation the evolution of economic growth is more and more difficult to be affected by money supply, weaken the correlation between the two.
The third chapter analyzes the particularity of China's money supply function.1, the supply of base money basically through foreign exchange, the government debt and claims on deposit money banks of these channels, but they are constrained, thus controlling base money channels is not smooth. The credit scale control of traditional commercial banks in recent years, conservative business behavior has become the important factor affecting monetary derivative, created by.2, the state-owned banks chase

【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2001
【分类号】：F832;F061.2

【引证文献】