基于生态环境的国民财富估算研究

发布时间：2018-05-01 10:41

本文选题：生产资本 + 人力资本　；参考：《安徽大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：上世纪欧美等国家的发展因人类生产能力的巨大提高而达到空前未有的高度。这也使各个国家自20世纪开始追逐经济的快速发展,特别是发展中国家都争相模仿欧美国家的发展模式,一味地以标榜欧美国家模式来改造和发展本国的经济。从现在往回看,20世纪中期经济的变革是在经济发展的同时,投入了过多的资源,遭遇了严重的环境污染问题,至本世纪初环境污染问题俨然已成为许多国家面临的最严峻的问题之一。从国内形势看,如今,中国己成为全球第二大碳排放国,与此同时也是最有潜力实施节约能源减少污染物排放的发展中国家。另外,我国每年因为环境污染造成的经济损失巨大,且逐年上升。统计资料显示,历年由生态环境的污染和破坏造成的损失约占当年GDP的15%。因为环境污染,我国经济发展的成本比全球平均水平高6%左右。追求以牺牲环境为代价的经济发展并不能持续,从长期来看,这种发展模式不但会造成人类生存条件的恶化,而且会反向制约经济的发展,削减人民的福利水平。所以,正视环境污染的破坏性、采取相应措施解决这一问题是当下我国政府和民众工作的重中之重。庆幸的是,我们正在做,且一直会做。其中可采取的措施之一便是重新挑选合适的国民经济核算指标,现行的国民经济核算体系以单一考核GDP为主,我们应尽快建立更加科学、合理的经济、资源、环境统一的核算体系。在能够全面评估国民经济的同时,能够综合考虑自然资源的过度消耗和环境污染的加剧等关键因素,将更科学的指标纳入国民经济核算指标体系中,使综合之后的指标体系成为适宜现阶段经济发展的更科学的经济考核评价体系。长期以来,GDP增速是国家和地方政府考核体系的重要指标,这使国家和地方政府热衷于追逐短期GDP增速,而忽视了长期内经济可持续发展。通俗来说,我们不应“目光短浅”,而应该“放长线钓大鱼”。政府应该使用更科学合理的评价体系阐释经济发展。国民财富是本文采用的科学的衡量国民经济核算指标。采用国民财富指标重新审视1990年以来安徽省经济发展情况,科学合理地解释20多年来安徽省真实的人民福利水平。本文主要分为两个部分：第一部分,根据世界银行(World Bank)的综合性财富概念以及联合国环境规划署(UNEP)和联合国大学国际人文(UNU-IHDP)的包容性财富的相关概念及估算方法,估算出国民财富及财富结构(生产资本、无形资本和自然资本存量水平)；第二部分,建立模型：一方面建立国民财富结构与经济增长之间的关系模型,另一方面,采用古典Gross and Kruger模型建立国民财富结构与环境污染之间的模型,旨在分析经济可持续发展过程中,安徽省的国民财富中三类资本结构对其产生的影响。根据估算结果及相关分析,可以看出：首先,安徽省自然资本在国民财富结构中比重下降。政府应重视推进可再生能源的发展,加大对可再生资源的有效投资,加快完善有关政策措施,积极推动可再生能源合理利用。其次,人力资本和生产资本占国民财富的比重均趋于上升。人力资本理论表明,在经济增长中,作为生产要素,单位人力资本产生的边际收益多于单位生产资本所产生的边际收益,因此,应出台相应措施以促进人力资本发展。最后,安徽省国民财富的增长速度一直慢于GDP的增长速度,这说明实际的经济增速要低于生产能力的扩张。这验证了GDP的快速增长付出了大量自然资本且牺牲了生态环境。政府应加快将政策指标从GDP的增长转向国民财富的积累或者其他更合适的指标。国民财富把我们所忽视的资源环境考虑进了GDP核算,建立了一个与中国特色社会主义“五位一体”总格局相适应的的指标体系,比较客观、公正、科学地反映地区发展的真实情况。选择合适的国民经济衡量指标既是促进人与自然和谐相处之道,也是我国经济发展进入新常态的必然选择。
[Abstract]:The development of the European and American countries in the last century has reached unprecedented heights because of the great improvement of human production capacity. This has also made the countries pursue the rapid development of the economy since twentieth Century, especially in developing countries, to imitate the development model of European and American countries, and to transform and develop their own classics by stating the model of European and American countries. From now on, the economic change in the middle of the twentieth Century is in the development of the economy, with too much resources and serious environmental pollution problems. To the beginning of this century, environmental pollution has become one of the most serious problems in many countries. From the domestic situation, China has become the second largest carbon row in the world. At the same time, it is also the most potential developing country that has the most potential to implement energy conservation and reduce the emission of pollutants. In addition, the economic losses caused by environmental pollution are huge and increasing year by year in China. The statistical data show that the loss of the contract caused by the pollution and destruction of the ecological environment over the years accounts for the 15%. of the year GDP because of the environmental pollution. The cost of economic development is about 6% higher than the global average. The pursuit of economic development at the expense of the environment is not sustainable. In the long run, this development model will not only cause the deterioration of the human survival conditions, but also reverse the economic development and reduce the welfare of the people. Therefore, it will face the destructiveness of environmental pollution and adopt The corresponding measures to solve this problem is the most important part of the work of our government and the public. Fortunately, we are doing it and will do it all the time. One of the measures that can be taken is to reselect the appropriate national economic accounting indicators. The current national economic accounting system is based on a single assessment of the GDP, and we should establish more courses as soon as possible. The key factors such as the excessive consumption of natural resources and the intensification of environmental pollution can be taken into consideration in the comprehensive assessment of the national economy, and the more scientific indicators will be incorporated into the index system of national economic accounting to make the comprehensive index system suitable for the present stage. For a long time, the GDP growth rate is an important indicator of the national and local government assessment system, which makes the state and local governments keen to pursue short term GDP growth, but neglects the long-term sustainable economic development. The government should use a more scientific and reasonable evaluation system to explain the economic development. National wealth is a scientific measure of national economic accounting used in this article. The national wealth index is used to reexamine the economic development of Anhui province since 1990 and to scientifically explain the true people's welfare level in Anhui province for more than 20 years. It is divided into two parts: in the first part, according to the concept of the comprehensive wealth of the World Bank (World Bank) and the related concepts and estimates of the inclusive wealth of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the international Humanities (UNU-IHDP) of the United Nations University, the structure of the national wealth and wealth (production capital, intangible capital and natural capital stock water) is estimated. In the second part, the model is established: on the one hand, the relationship model between the national wealth structure and economic growth is established. On the other hand, the model of the national wealth structure and environmental pollution is established by using the classical Gross and Kruger model. The purpose is to analyze the three types of capital structure in the national wealth of Anhui Province in the course of economic sustainable development. According to the results and the related analysis, we can see that first, the proportion of natural capital in Anhui is declining in the national wealth structure. The government should pay more attention to the development of renewable energy, increase the effective investment in renewable resources, accelerate the improvement of relevant policies and measures, and actively promote the rational use of renewable energy. Secondly, Human capital and production capital account for the proportion of national wealth. The theory of human capital shows that in economic growth, as a factor of production, the marginal income generated by the unit human capital is more than the marginal income produced by the unit production capital. Therefore, the corresponding measures should be taken to promote the development of human capital. Finally, the national wealth of Anhui province. The growth rate of the rich has been slower than the growth rate of GDP, which shows that the actual economic growth is lower than the expansion of production capacity. This proves that the rapid growth of GDP has paid a lot of natural capital and sacrificed the ecological environment. The government should speed up the shift of policy indicators from the growth of GDP to the accumulation of national wealth or other more appropriate indicators. The people's wealth considered the resources and environment which we ignored into GDP accounting and established an index system adapted to the general pattern of "five in one" with Chinese characteristics. It is objective, fair and scientific to reflect the true situation of regional development. It is also an inevitable choice for China's economic development to enter the new normal.

【学位授予单位】：安徽大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F127;X196

【参考文献】