投机消费及其经济影响研究

发布时间：2018-05-13 22:14

本文选题：投机消费 + 价格预期　；参考：《华中科技大学》2008年博士论文

【摘要】： 投机消费即消费者为了获得额外收益而产生的消费,是现实生活中普遍存在的一种消费方式。它对消费者个人的选择、企业的经营活动以及国家的宏观经济运行都有重大影响。但是这种消费方式,不仅被理论经济学、应用经济学的研究忽视,而且也被政府的决策部门忽视。本文在吸收前人研究成果的基础上,描述并研究了这一消费方式,提出其概念,分析其特点,剖析其动因,划分其类型。以典型的投机消费的分析为框架,研究了投机消费作用于经济活动的机理,探索了投机消费对经济的影响,提出了引导投机消费、稳定经济增长的政策建议。本文的基本观点有: 投机消费是现实生活中普遍存在的一种消费方式。研究投机消费能为宏观经济理论寻找微观基础,为宏、微观经济决策提供理论依据,这对于消费者的选择、企业的经营活动、国家的宏观经济运行,都具有非常重要的意义。消费理论的发展从不同的角度可以分为不同的发展阶段。从研究投机消费的角度,大体可以将消费理论的发展分为四个发展时期,并相应地产生了朴素的消费思想、节俭积累消费理论、选择性消费理论、不确定性消费理论。投机消费是消费者为获得额外收益而进行的消费。这种消费是依附于正常消费、以取得额外收益为目的的,尽管它会给消费者带来收益,但它与投资不同。投机消费是具有收益产出能力的消费,安排这种消费要考虑消费成本与收益的比较、时间上的提前或延迟、空间上的转移、商品选择上的转换。投机消费需求弹性较大,具有较强的不确定性和风险性。投机消费产生于人们规避损失,追逐利益的内在冲动,同时也是人们避免遗憾,实现自我价值的一种方式。消费者可以权衡消费选择,进行投机消费,以获得最大的收益。投机消费是可以开发利用的消费,如果制度设置合理,这种消费就能很好地为社会发展服务。根据不同的划分标准,投机消费可分为当期投机消费和跨期投机消费;同质产品的投机消费和差别产品的投机消费;同区域的投机消费和跨区域的投机消费;基于技术进步的投机消费和技术不变的投机消费;基于价格预期的投机消费和价格不变的投机消费,等等。基于价格预期的投机消费是由预期价格变化产生的、消费者重新选择商品或服务以获得最大收益的消费。价格变化会改变消费者的预算约束,从而改变消费者获得的效用,导致投机消费。投机消费受消费的主体因素、客体因素、宏观因素和不确定因素等因素的影响。投机消费作为消费行为的一种方式,最终可归结为在一定的收入预算条件下如何实现消费者效用最大化的问题。投机消费的收益是不确定的。在不确定性条件下,消费者的选择更为复杂。消费者在购买网络产品从而加入某个经济网络时,往往并不能准确评估网络产品所具有的网络效应及其带来的效用水平,从而使其消费行为显示出投机特性。消费者购买网络产品的消费行为面临三个方面的不确定性,产生这些不确定性的原因包括消费者对网络规模估计的有限理性,消费者对网络成长路径的有限理性以及消费者“首尝”消费所面临的有限理性。网络消费者由于对网络规模的有限理性将导致其在消费选择过程中既可能面对额外的正效用,也可能收到意外的负效用,并且这些效用通常具有不同的性质,有的可以给消费者带来实质的伤害,有些则只会导致心理层面的失望情绪。消费者对网络效用函数和网络成长过程的有限理性,同样会给网络消费者带来投机消费的体验,只是各种体验的前提和条件有所不同。投机消费会对国民经济产生重要的影响。一般说来,正常消费相对稳定,消费波动在很大程度上来自投机消费。消费政策的任务就是引导消费,充分发挥投机消费对经济的有利作用,避免其对宏观经济产生不良的影响。
[Abstract]:The consumption of speculating consumption, which is produced by consumers in order to gain extra income, is a common mode of consumption in real life. It has a significant impact on the choice of individual consumers, business activities and the macro-economic operation of the country. However, this mode of consumption is not only studied by theoretical economics and applied economics. On the basis of the achievements of the predecessors, this paper describes and studies the consumption mode, puts forward its concept, analyzes its characteristics, analyzes its motivation and divides its types, and studies the mechanism of speculative consumption on economic activities with the analysis of typical speculative consumption as a framework. The impact of speculative consumption on the economy puts forward policy proposals to guide speculative consumption and stabilize economic growth.
Speculative consumption is a common mode of consumption in real life. It is of great significance to study speculative consumption for macro economic theory and to provide a theoretical basis for macro and micro economic decision-making. It is of great significance for the choice of consumers, business activities and national macro-economic transportation.
The development of consumption theory can be divided into different stages of development from different angles. From the perspective of speculative consumption, the development of consumption theory can be divided into four periods of development, and the consumption theory of simple consumption, the theory of frugality accumulation and consumption, the theory of selective expense elimination and the theory of uncertainty consumption are put forward accordingly.
Speculative consumption is a consumer's consumption in order to gain extra income. This consumption is dependent on normal consumption to gain extra income, although it will bring benefits to consumers, but it is different from investment. Speculative consumption is a consumption of income output. Compared with the advance or delay in time, the transfer of space, the conversion of commodity selection, the flexibility of the speculative consumption demand is larger, and it has strong uncertainty and risk. Speculative consumption is produced by people's inner impulse to avoid losses and pursue interests. At the same time, it is also a way for people to avoid regrets and realize self value. With the choice of consumption and speculative consumption to gain the greatest benefit. Speculative consumption is a consumption that can be exploited and utilized. If the system is set reasonably, this consumption can serve social development well. According to different criteria, speculative consumption can be divided into speculative consumption in the current period and inter temporal speculation consumption; speculative consumption and poor quality of homogeneity products Speculative consumption of other products; speculative consumption in the same region and speculative consumption across regions; speculative consumption based on speculative consumption and technology based on technological progress; speculative consumption based on speculative consumption and price Invariance Based on price expectations, and so on.
Speculation consumption based on price expectation is produced by the change of expected price, and the consumer is re choosing goods or services to obtain the maximum income. The price change will change the consumer's budget constraints, thus change the utility of the consumer and lead to speculative consumption. The main factors, object factors and macro factors of speculative consumption are subject to consumption. As a way of consumption behavior, speculative consumption can ultimately be attributed to the problem of how to maximize the utility of consumers under certain income budget conditions. The income of speculative consumption is uncertain. Under the condition of uncertainty, the choice of consumers is more complex.
When consumers buy a network product to join a certain economic network, they often do not accurately assess the network effect and the utility level of the network products, so that the consumer behavior shows speculative characteristics. The consumer behavior of consumer buying network products is faced with three aspects of uncertainty, producing these uncertainties. The reasons include the limited rationality of the consumer's estimation of the network size, the limited rationality of the consumer on the network growth path and the limited rationality of the consumer's "first taste" consumption. The network consumers may face additional positive utility in the process of consumption selection because of the limited rationality of the network size, and may also be possible. Unintended negative effects are received, and these utilities usually have different properties, some can cause substantial harm to consumers, some only lead to psychological disappointment. Consumers' limited rationality to the network utility function and the network growth process will also bring the experience of speculative consumption to the Internet consumers, just each of them. The preconditions and conditions of the experience are different.
Speculative consumption will have an important impact on the national economy. Generally speaking, normal consumption is relatively stable, and consumption fluctuations are largely derived from speculative consumption. The task of consumption policy is to guide consumption, give full play to the beneficial effect of speculative consumption on the economy, and avoid its adverse effects on the macro-economy.

【学位授予单位】：华中科技大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2008
【分类号】：F224;F061.5

【引证文献】