中国区域碳排放配额控制政策的建模和系统开发研究

发布时间：2018-05-19 10:20

本文选题：碳排放 + 碳排放配额　；参考：《华东师范大学》2012年博士论文

【摘要】：最新研究表明,过去50年观测到的变暖事实主要由人类活动引起,其中燃烧化石燃料产生的CO2是气候变暖的主要原因。由此,减少CO2排放成为全球节能减排、保护地球环境的共同责任。为了遏制大气中CO2浓度快速升高的趋势,国际社会采取了一系列积极的措施,试图减少化石燃料的碳排放。对中国而言,中国正处经济高速发展的阶段,排放二氧化碳较多的煤炭在能源结构中依然占据主要地位,随着中国经济的进一步发展,中国消耗能源将日益增多,碳排放空间将成为中国经济发展的约束。因此,估测我国未来的碳排放需求量以及研究我国实施碳排放配额的可行性具有重要的意义。基于此,本文基于GIS平台,对区域碳排放配额控制政策的模型进行了探讨,并对该模型的模拟系统进行了研发,试图在理论上丰富区域集成评估模型(IRAM),应用上解决中国的实际问题。由于国际上还没有实施碳排放配额分配,我国也没有确定总减排量,因此本文的研究更多地具有理论探索和技术探索的意义。基于以上背景,在总结前人理论基础与相关研究进展的基础上,本文对中国30个省市自治区(西藏缺数据)2009-2050年在经济平稳增长(balance growth)轨道上的碳排放需求量进行了估测,较系统、全面地探索了各省市自治区在未来一段时期的碳排放需求量,为中国各省市自治区碳排放目标的设定和碳配额分配提供了重要的研究基础。这里强调平稳增长是为了保障碳减排不刺激经济危机。文章在此基础上,进一步探讨了中国省域尺度上的碳排放配额分配方案,在五个碳排放分配原则下对中国初始碳排放权进行了分配,并针对五个原则下30个省市自治区获得配额量进行了比较分析；随后在获得的五个原则下的配额量的约束下,计算得到社会福利最大化下的减排控制率,以及在减排控制率控制下的经济增长路径,能源消费路径和能源碳排放路径。试图找出既能缩小区域差距,又符合中国区域经济发展的减排分配原则。这些建模成果、数据成果,最终建成在一个以GIS为基础的政策模拟系统中。显然中国未来确定的碳减排配额可能变动,碳减排分配原则可以调节,由于这个系统的通用性,本文发展的模型和研发的系统,可以基本满足中国未来配额政策制定的需要。本文共分为6章,其中第2至第4章为本文的建模主体内容,第5章为系统开发内容：第1章,阐述研究背景与意义,并对相关理论与研究进展进行总结与梳理。第2章根据经济动力学理论和碳排放动力模型,对全国各省市自治区的在平稳增长条件下碳排放需求量进行了估测,结果表明：(1)经济平稳增长条件下,中国各省域的经济总量和碳排放需求量均不断增多。不同的是,东西部经济总量差距在不断扩大,碳排放总量差距在不断缩小。(2)直辖市及东中部地区大部分省份能源强度下降速率高于西部地区,而能源强度低于西部地区,从而使西部地区将面临着巨大的减排压力。2020年以前,我国西部地区不可能达到减排40～45%的平均减排目标,因此东部地区在未来的减排过程中需要承担更多责任。(3)中国大多数地区节能减排均处在良性发展阶段,在发展低碳技术的前提下,其减排形势是乐观的。而经济欠发达的西部省区中,蒙古、宁夏,青海、贵州,节能减排压力大,其减排途径重点在于调整该地区的产业结构,能源结构和生产模式。(5)上海,北京,天津三个直辖市人均碳排放量都较大,主要是因为三个城市的城市化水平都很高,而这也说明随着我国城市化水平的提高,人均碳排放量将会上升,从而对碳减排造成一定阻力。第3章探索了中国省域尺度上的碳配额分配方案,并试图找出适合中国区域经济发展的减排分配原则。文章先以最优控制论为基础,根据碳排放动力模型计算获得未来中国各省市自治区在自由排放情景下的经济总量,人口总量和碳排放需求量,以此为基础,设定中国总配额量,按GDP原则,人口原则,GDP人口原则,支付能力原则,碳排放量原则对中国初始碳配额进行分配。并与考虑历史责任下(历史累积碳排放量)五个原则分配的碳排放配额、碳排放缺口进行对比分。结果表明：(1)按未来需求量分配碳排放配额更合理。(2)东部地区在GDP原则下获得配额量多,碳排放权缺口最小；中部地区在人口原则下配额量较多；西部地区在支付能力原则下的碳排放盈余的省份最多；各区域在前瞻性原则和GDP人口原则下的配额差距相对较小。(3)我国面临减排的配额压力。第4章在第3章结论的基础上,更进一步,以社会福利效益最大为准则,以五个原则下分配的配额量为约束条件,构建了减排最优控制率模型。同时通过模型获得在配额目标下各省市自治区的减排控制率以及碳排放趋势,通过分析发现： (1)各省市自治区在不同的原则下减排控制率不同,不同区域有适合其发展的分配原则。在按未来需求量分配的原则中,前瞻性原则下的省域减排控制率的差距最小。东部地区大部分省份在配额约束下GDP原则分配的减排控制率最小,西部地区大部分省份在支付能力原则下减排控制率最小。而中部地区大部分省份则在人口原则下减排控制率较小。 (2)减排控制率下的经济增长路径都呈单调下降趋势。各省份不同原则下的经济增长路径下降速度存在差异,个别省份的经济增长率会在后期呈负增长。大部分省份在5大原则下的碳排放路径能源路径都呈先升后降的趋势,仅个别省份呈单调下降的趋势。减排控制率的差距会影响区域内部各原则之间的消费路径、碳排放路径。而能源结构,产业结构,能源强度等因素的影响会影响某些省份碳排放路径与其对应的能源消费路径。作为计算地理学研究论文,本文开发了名为“中国区域碳排放配额控制政策模拟系统”的空间决策支持系统,该系统以GIS为基础,以省市自治区为数据单元构成数据库,模块包含经济平稳增长率计算模型、碳排放需求估算模型、配额分配原则评估和减排控制率计算模型,本文对经济平稳增长下的配额分配政策模拟模型实现了可计算化。系统开发采用了面向对象的软件开发路线,采用数据流方法设计系统,系统的需求分析注重实用,可扩张,易维护,表达可视化程度高。这是基于GIS决策支持系统的一个类型。
[Abstract]:The latest research shows that the fact that the warming facts observed in the past 50 years is mainly caused by human activities, and the CO2 produced by burning fossil fuels is the main cause of climate warming. Thus, the reduction of CO2 emissions is the common responsibility of the global energy conservation and emission reduction and the protection of the earth's environment. In order to contain the trend of rapid increase in the concentration of CO2 in large gas, the international community A series of positive measures are taken to reduce the carbon emissions of fossil fuels. For China, China is in the stage of rapid economic development, and coal with more carbon dioxide emissions still occupies the main position in the energy structure. With the further development of China's economy, China's energy consumption will be increasing and the carbon emission space will become the medium. Therefore, it is of great significance to estimate the future carbon emission demand in China and to study the feasibility of implementing carbon emission quota in China. Based on this, this paper is based on the GIS platform to discuss the model of the regional carbon emission quota control policy and research the simulation system of the model. The rich regional integration evaluation model (IRAM) is used to solve the practical problems in China. Because of the lack of carbon emission quota allocation in the world, China has not determined the total displacement. Therefore, the research in this paper has more significance for theoretical exploration and technical exploration.
Based on the above background, on the basis of summarizing the previous theoretical basis and the related research progress, this paper estimates the carbon emissions demand on the balance growth track of 30 provinces and autonomous regions of China (the data lacking in Tibet) for 2009-2050 years, and systematically explores the future period of the provinces and autonomous regions in a comprehensive way. Carbon emissions demand provides an important research foundation for the setting of carbon emission targets and the allocation of carbon quotas in the provinces and municipalities of China. It is emphasized that the smooth growth is to ensure carbon emission reduction and not stimulate the economic crisis. On this basis, the paper further discusses the allocation scheme of carbon emission quotas on the provincial scale in China and five carbon emissions. Under the principle of distribution, the initial carbon emission rights of China are allocated, and the quota of 30 provinces and municipalities under the five principles is compared and analyzed. Under the restriction of the quota of five principles obtained, the control rate of the emission reduction under the maximum social welfare and the economic increase under the control of the reduction control rate are calculated. Long path, energy consumption path and energy carbon emission path. Try to find out the principle of reduction in reducing the regional gap, and in line with the development of China's regional economic development. These modeling results and data results are finally built in a GIS based policy simulation system. Obviously China's future carbon emission reduction quota may change, carbon reduction. The principle of scheduling can be adjusted. Due to the universality of this system, the model and the system developed in this paper can basically meet the needs of China's future quota policy formulation.
This paper is divided into 6 chapters, of which second to fourth chapters are the main content of the modeling. The fifth chapter is about the development of the system.
The first chapter describes the background and significance of the study, and summarizes the relevant theories and research progress.
The second chapter, based on the economic dynamics theory and the carbon emission dynamic model, estimates the carbon emissions demand of the provinces and autonomous regions under the condition of steady growth. The results show that: (1) the economic total and carbon emissions demand in all provinces and regions of China are increasing under the condition of smooth economic growth. The gap between the total carbon emissions is shrinking continuously. (2) the energy intensity decline rate of the municipalities directly under the central government and the eastern and central regions is higher than that in the western region, while the energy intensity is lower than that in the western region, so that the western region will face a huge emission reduction pressure of.2020 years, and the western region of China is unlikely to reach 40 to 45% of the emission reduction. The eastern region needs to undertake more responsibilities in the process of emission reduction in the future. (3) most of China's energy conservation and emission reduction are in the benign development stage. Under the premise of developing low carbon technology, the emission reduction situation is optimistic. In the underdeveloped western provinces, Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, Guizhou, and the pressure of energy conservation and emission reduction The key to its emission reduction is to adjust the industrial structure, energy structure and production mode of the region. (5) the per capita carbon emissions of the three municipalities in Shanghai, Beijing and Tianjin are large, mainly because the urbanization level of the three cities is very high, which also shows that the per capita carbon emissions will rise with the increase of the level of urbanization in China. It will cause some resistance to carbon emission reduction.
The third chapter explores the carbon quota allocation scheme on the provincial scale in China, and tries to find out the principle of emission reduction allocation suitable for the development of China's regional economic development. Based on the optimal control theory, the article calculates the total economic total, the total population and the carbon emissions in the free emission scenarios of the provinces and municipalities of China based on the carbon emission dynamic model. On the basis of the demand, the total quota of China is set, according to the GDP principle, the population principle, the GDP population principle, the principle of payment capacity, the carbon emission principle and the distribution of the initial carbon quota in China. The carbon emission quota, which is divided into five principles under the historical responsibility (historical cumulative carbon emissions), is divided into the result table. Ming: (1) it is more reasonable to allocate the carbon emission quota according to the future demand. (2) in the eastern region, the quota amount is obtained under the GDP principle, the carbon emission gap is the smallest, the quota of the central region is more in the population principle, the most of the provinces in the western region under the principle of payment of carbon, the prospective principle and the GDP population principle in each region. The quota gap is relatively small. (3) China is facing quota pressure on emission reduction.
In the fourth chapter, on the basis of the third chapter, further, taking the maximum social benefits as the criterion and taking the quota as the restriction under the five principles, the optimal control rate model is constructed, and the control rate and the carbon emission trend of the provinces and autonomous regions under the quota target are obtained by the model.
(1) the reduction control rate of the provinces and autonomous regions is different under different principles. There is a distribution principle suitable for its development in different regions. In the principle of future demand distribution, the gap of the control rate of provincial emission reduction is the smallest under the foresight principle. The reduction control rate of the GDP principle allocation under the quota arrangement is the smallest in most provinces in the eastern region. Most provinces in the region have the lowest emission reduction control under the principle of capacity to pay, while most provinces in the central part of the country have less control over emission reduction under the principle of population.
(2) the path of economic growth under the control rate of emission reduction has a monotonous decline trend. There is a difference in the decline rate of the economic growth path under different provinces in different provinces. The economic growth rate of individual provinces will show negative growth in the later period. In most provinces, the energy path of the carbon emission path under the 5 principles is all rising and then decreasing, only in a few provinces The trend of monotonous decline. The gap between the control rate of emission reduction will affect the consumption path between the principles in the region, and the carbon emission path. The influence of energy structure, industrial structure, energy intensity and other factors will affect the path of carbon emission and its corresponding energy consumption path in some provinces.
As a computational geography research paper, this paper develops a spatial decision support system called "China's regional carbon emission quota control policy simulation system". The system is based on GIS and uses the provincial and municipal autonomous region as the data unit to form a database. The module includes a stable economic growth rate calculation model, a carbon emission demand estimation model, and a quota. In this paper, the simulation model of quota allocation policy under steady economic growth is computable. The system development adopts object-oriented software development route, and uses data flow method to design the system. The system needs analysis to be practical, expansible, easy to maintain and high level of visualization. This is a type based on the GIS decision support system.
【学位授予单位】：华东师范大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：X196

【引证文献】