排放控制目标下我国最优经济增长路径、减排路径与碳排放趋势研究及模拟系统开发

发布时间：2018-05-24 10:51

本文选题：碳排放预测 + 排放强度目标　；参考：《华东师范大学》2011年博士论文

【摘要】：工业化进程以来,以CO2为主的温室气体排放日益增多,由此带来的气候变化,如全球变暖、海平面上升和降水变化,给自然生态系统和人类社会以及经济系统都带来了不可预测的风险。因此,气候变化得到了国际社会的持续关注,各国政府也积极地为减缓气候变化进行着艰难的谈判努力。对各国政府和决策制订者来说,认识在当前经济发展进程中未来的碳排放走势可为减排目标的设定提供科学的依据。在确定了减排目标之后,关注重点将转向研究减排目标约束下的最优经济增长路径及减排路径,以使社会福利最大。为此,本文以中国为例,从国家尺度上首先对无排放控制下的我国最优经济增长路径与碳排放趋势进行了探讨。通过对Moon-sonn模型进行改进,从理论上得到了最优经济增长率与能源强度之间存在环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)关系的必要条件,即能源的产出弹性小于资本产出弹性。此外,预测过程中考虑了产业结构对能源强度降低速度的影响以及能源结构对碳排放量的影响,预测结果显示,我国未来经济增长速度将逐渐趋缓,2050年GDP总量将比2010年翻3番；能源消费量和碳排放量均出现先增后降的趋势,高峰分别出现在2032年和2031年,峰值分别为3255Mtoe和2636.6MtC。敏感性分析发现,能源进口价格和可再生能源替代政策对排放高峰出现的时间影响不大,但可以显著降低碳排放的绝对量,而提高能源强度的下降速率可使高峰年份提早到来。接着,针对我国提出的排放强度目标“2020年排放强度在2005年水平上降低40%-45%”,本文构建了排放强度控制目标下的最优经济增长模型。模拟结果显示,消费产出比在55%水平上时可获得的最优社会福利最大,我们称之为最优情景。与消费产出比为49%的基准情景相比,最优情景的年平均经济增长率为6.0%,略低于基准情景下的9.4%；在排放强度目标约束下,研发投资走势表现为前轻后重特征,2014年以后研发强度明显提高,排放强度也随之出现更显著的下降趋势；最优情景下的能源消费和碳排放增长速度均明显低于基准情景。对研发投资潜力的敏感性分析发现,研发强度上限的提高会加剧前轻后重的趋势。此外,文章还对当前热论的排放配额分配方案,提出了排放总量控制目标下的最优经济增长模型。模拟结果显示,最优情景对应的消费产出比为45%,说明随着规划期的延长,社会计划者的最优选择是降低消费产出比以换取经济持续增长的动力,最优情景下的经济平均增长率为8.8%,略高于基准情景下的7.9%。研发路径表现为降-升-降的特征,能源消费与碳排放在初期增长迅速,到后期才开始回落。对应的排放强度初期稳中有升,随后出现大幅下降。且能源消费变动幅度对能源消费和碳排放最优路径具有较高的敏感性。最后,基于无排放控制、排放强度控制以及排放总量控制模型,本文对减排控制最优经济增长路径模拟系统进行了开发。
[Abstract]:Since the industrialization process , CO2 - based greenhouse gas emissions have increased , resulting in climate change , such as global warming , sea - level rise and precipitation changes , bringing unpredictable risks to natural ecosystems and human societies as well as economic systems . As a result , climate change has received sustained attention from the international community , and Governments are actively engaged in difficult negotiations to mitigate climate change .

For governments and policy makers , it is recognized that future carbon emission trends in the current economic development process can provide a scientific basis for the setting of emission reduction targets . After the emission reduction targets have been identified , the focus will be shifted to the optimal economic growth path and emission reduction path under the emission reduction target constraints in order to maximize social welfare .

In this paper , taking China as an example , the paper discusses the optimal economic growth path and carbon emission trend of China under the control of non - emission from the national scale . By improving the Moon - sonn model , the paper obtains the necessary condition for the relationship between the optimal economic growth rate and the energy intensity , that is , the output elasticity of energy is less than the elasticity of capital output .
The peak value of energy import price and renewable energy substitution policy are 3255Mtoe and 2636.6MtC respectively . The sensitivity analysis shows that energy import price and renewable energy alternative policy have little effect on emission peak , but the absolute quantity of carbon emission can be significantly reduced , and the decrease rate of energy intensity can bring the peak year early .

The results show that the annual average economic growth rate of the optimal scenario is 6.0 % compared with the benchmark scenario with the consumption output ratio of 49 % , which is slightly lower than 9.4 % in the benchmark scenario .
Under the constraint of emission intensity target , the R & D investment trend is characterized by the former light and heavy feature , and the R & D intensity is obviously improved after 2014 , and the emission intensity also shows a more significant downward trend .
The growth rate of energy consumption and carbon emission under the optimal situation is obviously lower than that of the benchmark scenario . Sensitivity analysis on the potential of R & D investment shows that the improvement of the upper limit of R & D intensity can aggravate the tendency of the forward light weight .

The results show that the optimal selection of the social planner is to reduce the consumption output ratio in exchange for the sustained growth of the economy . The results show that the economic average growth rate of the social planner is 8.8 % , which is slightly higher than 7.9 % in the benchmark scenario .

Finally , based on the non - emission control , emission intensity control and total emission control model , this paper develops the simulation system of the optimal economic growth path for emission reduction control .
【学位授予单位】：华东师范大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：X196

【引证文献】