中国货币供应与经济增长关系研究

发布时间：2018-05-27 17:36

本文选题：经济增长 + 货币供应　；参考：《武汉理工大学》2002年硕士论文

【摘要】： 货币因素在经济增长中的作用，，是货币经济增长理论产生以来，理论界关注的焦点之一。在货币经济理论产生以前的实物经济增长理论中，往往只有实物资产一种形式，而完全排除了货币金融资产。为了弥补经济增长理论的这一缺陷，西方经济学界出现了货币经济增长理论，该理论认为，在经济增长过程中，货币是非中性的，货币的引入会改变均衡增长路径；一旦货币收入对人们的消费和储蓄产生持久性的影响，货币供给这一短期经济变量就会对长期经济增长产生实质性的作用。在我国理论界，对货币和经济增长之间的关系长期存在着不同观点，尽管这种分歧表面上看是货币供给和经济增长之间的因果关系之争，其实质是对货币在经济中如何发挥作用之争。为了澄清这方面的问题，本文对1953年至2001年中国货币供应波动周期和经济增长波动周期的周期、波长、波动趋势和波幅进行了对比研究，发现在整个48年间，按波幅超过10％的标准计量，经济增长和货币波动都可分为六个周期，并在周期、波动趋势和波幅上呈现出一定的对应性，且货币波动周期呈现出滞后经济周期的特性。为了更好地揭示货币供应和经济增长之间的因果关系，在进一步研究1953年至2001年货币增长与经济增长之间的相关性(相关系数为0．46)的基础上，给出了在整个48年间经济增长是因、货币供应是果成立，货币供应是因、经济增长是果不成立的回归分析。由于该结论以弱相关为回归分析基础，因而这一结论缺乏足够的说服力。考虑到制度变化的影响，本文将这48年分为计划经济时期、有计划的商品经济时期和加速市场化时期三个阶段，对每一时期经济增长和货币供应的因果关系重新进行了相关分析和回归验证，得出了阶段性因果关系的结论。并从货币供应控制、资本形成和货币化进程的角度给出了产生阶段性因果关系的解释。在上述分析的基础上，本文还提出了经济增长中的货币供应建议，即实行单一规则下的货币目标区间控制。
[Abstract]:The role of monetary factors in economic growth is one of the focal points of the theory of monetary economic growth. In the theory of real economic growth before the emergence of monetary economic theory, there is usually only one form of real assets, and the monetary and financial assets are completely excluded. In order to make up for this defect of the economic growth theory, the western economists have appeared the monetary economic growth theory, which holds that, in the process of economic growth, money is not neutral, the introduction of money will change the path of balanced growth; Once money income has a lasting impact on people's consumption and savings, money supply, a short-term economic variable, will have a substantial effect on long-term economic growth. There have long been different views on the relationship between money and economic growth in China's theoretical circles, although this divergence is ostensibly a dispute over the causal relationship between money supply and economic growth. Its essence is the argument about how money plays a role in the economy. In order to clarify this problem, this paper makes a comparative study of the periods, wavelengths, trends and amplitudes of the fluctuation cycles of China's money supply and economic growth from 1953 to 2001. The economic growth and currency fluctuation can be divided into six cycles according to the standard measure of the amplitude over 10%, and the fluctuation trend and amplitude show certain correspondence in the cycle, and the currency fluctuation cycle shows the characteristic of lagging economic cycle. In order to better reveal the causal relationship between money supply and economic growth, based on further study of the correlation between monetary growth and economic growth from 1953 to 2001 (correlation coefficient is 0.46), The regression analysis shows that during the whole 48 years the economic growth is due, the money supply is established, the money supply is the reason, and the economic growth is the untenable regression analysis. Due to the weak correlation as the basis of regression analysis, this conclusion is not convincing enough. Considering the impact of institutional changes, this paper divides the 48 years into three stages: planned economy, planned commodity economy and accelerated marketization. The causality of economic growth and money supply in each period is analyzed and verified by regression, and the conclusion of periodic causality is obtained. From the point of view of money supply control, capital formation and monetization process, this paper gives the explanation of stage causality. On the basis of the above analysis, this paper also puts forward the money supply suggestion in the economic growth, that is, the monetary target interval control under the single rule.
【学位授予单位】：武汉理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2002
【分类号】：F822;F061.2

【引证文献】